Trade – Tariff agreements give Vietnam an advantage in the US market
10-07-2025
: GMD, SCS, MSH, TNG
: Seaports, Textile & Garment, Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports Textile & Garment Aviation
- Tariff risks have significantly decreased after Vietnam and the US agreed to apply a 20% tax rate on goods manufactured in Vietnam and 40% on transshipped goods.
- However, Vietnam and the US have not yet announced a common definition of transshipped goods, leaving uncertainty in how tariffs will be applied to specific sectors.
- According to international practice, Vietnam’s processing industries with high localization rates are likely to be subject only to the 20% reciprocal tax rate.
- The US applies higher tariff rates to 14 countries that have not reached agreements, which allows Vietnam to continue benefiting from the “China +1” shift and to expand its role in the global supply chain.
PHR - The story of land conversion can be realized right in 2025
09-07-2025
: PHR
: Chemicals, Industrial Land RE
: Giao Nguyen
Tags:
- Business results in the second quarter of 2025 continue to be contributed by the rubber segment, we estimate PHR's revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND 258 billion (-17% QoQ, -5% YoY) and VND 72 billion (-24% QoQ, +12% YoY), respectively.
- The Bac Tan Uyen 1 project (Thaco as the investor) is in the stage of determining the compensation value, with a plan to complete and implement the project in 2025. With the expected compensation price not lower than 2.5 billion VND/ha, the total compensation that PHR can receive from this project is estimated to be about 1,965 billion VND.
Update on sales of some steel enterprises in the first 5 months of 2025
08-07-2025
: HPG, HSG, GDA, NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- Sales volume of steel product groups (other than galvanized steel) all recorded growth with the main driving force from the domestic market.
- The selling price of construction steel and HRC remained flat while domestic steel pipes and galvanized steel sheets only increased slightly compared to the end of 2024.
- It is forecasted that the business results of the 2nd quarter of 2025 of most steel enterprises will improve compared to the 1st quarter thanks to favorable domestic market developments.
Industrial Parks – A Long-Term Development Trend
07-07-2025
: KBC, SIP, IDC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- We anticipate that from 2026 onwards, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) value in the manufacturing sector could recover, driven by: 1/ Greater clarity in trade policies and tariff frameworks among nations; 2/ Vietnam’s sustained long-term competitive advantages (strategic geographic location and trade agreements with various countries); 3/ Strong domestic consumption potential (supported by Vietnam’s youthful demographic structure).
- In the upcoming period, notable trends in industrial park (IP) development include: 1/ Development of IPs within Free Trade Zones (FTZs); 2/ Growth of IPs catering to high-tech sectors; 3/ Relocation of factories away from major urban areas; 4/ Reduction of carbon emission in IPs.
FRT – Steadfast in shaping a healthcare ecosystem with certain advantages
04-07-2025
: FRT
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: FRT, Long Chau
- Vietnam’s retail pharmaceutical market still offers ample growth opportunities, and Long Chau will remain the core growth driver for FRT in the years ahead with the number of new pharmacies slightly is exceeding the company’s target and revenue per store up 5% YoY.
- By stepping up spending to enlarge market share, particularly through Long Chau’s “freeship” delivery policy, the group has lifted brand awareness, broadened its customer base, and accelerated system-wide sales momentum.
- FPT Long Chau is now channeling resources into expanding vaccination-service coverage. The current strategy is not an outright land-grab for market share; instead, it emphasizes operational perfection, process standardization, and the disciplined development a platform capable of supporting durable and long-term growth.
- We see strong long-term potential in the Long Chau vaccination center chain, underpinned by its technological advantages, easy accessibility, and competitive pricing.
VIetnam bond market report June 2025 - Issuance activity accelerates
03-07-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Primary government bond (GSB) issuance rebounded strongly, reaching 30,473 billion VND (+68.8% MoM), with the successful auction rate improving to 61.6% on the back of renewed investor demand. The State Treasury raised the auction target to 49,500 billion VND, underscoring efforts to accelerate capital mobilization after a subdued May. For the first six months, cumulative GSB issuance hit 201,330 billion VND, fulfilling 40.3% of the annual plan.
- The average winning yield for 10-year GSBs in June 2025 stood at 3.14% per annum, up by 7bps MoM and 40bps YoY, reflecting rising inflation expectations and increased public spending.
- Secondary GSB market liquidity remained robust, averaging nearly 17,000 billion VND per session (+17.3% MoM), with trading activity most active in long-term tenors (15–30 years). The yield curve continued to shift upwards, with 10-year GSB yields climbing to 3.31% at the end of June.
- Foreign investors recorded a net purchase of 340 billion VND in June, bringing the 6-month cumulative net buying to nearly 2,440 billion VND, providing key support to the GSB market and helping to contain upward pressure on yields.
- Corporate bond (CB) issuance activity accelerated sharply, with 72 new issuances in June 2025 totaling 95,303 billion VND (+37.8% MoM, +30.1% YoY); the banking sector accounted for 82.4% of total value, mainly in the 2–10 year tenor range. Notable deals included: ACB (24,850 billion VND), MBB (14,750 billion VND), TCB (13,500 billion VND); coupon rates ranged from 4.95% to 6.48% depending on tenor.
- Early redemption activity surged to 39,264 billion VND (+80.6% MoM), with banks making up 90.4%, primarily replacing high-yield legacy bonds with lower-cost funding.
- The secondary CB market improved, with trading volume reaching 116,184 billion VND (+6.6% MoM); the real estate sector led, with transactions focused on tenors above 3 years.
- Credit risk remains present in the real estate sector, as eight companies reported delays in principal/interest payments during the month, most notably: Hung Thinh (4,000 billion VND), R&H (3,000 billion VND), BNP Global (2,100 billion VND). In July 2025, 17,500 billion VND of CBs are expected to mature, with real estate accounting for approximately 10,000 billion VND.
Forecast changes in the VN30 and VNFIN LEAD for Q3/2025
02-07-2025
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags: ETF VN30 VNFIN LEAD DGC BVH
- The HOSE-Index Construction and Management Rules Version 4.0, issued on December 30, 2024, will officially take effect inthe HOSE-Index’s Q3 2025 review.
- The VN30 index will see changes in its component stocks: DGC will be added, while BVH will be removed. Accordingly, weestimate that funds tracking this index will buy 1.9 million DGC shares and sell approximately 500,000 BVH shares duringthis restructuring.
- The VNFIN LEAD index will also undergo a change in its constituents, with LPB and SSB being removed and no new stocks added. The only ETF tracking the VNFIN LEAD index has recorded a performance of 11.7% YTD.
SAB – The cash dividend stands out as the primary highlight
01-07-2025
: SAB
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: SAB
- SAB delivered a weak Q1-FY25 result, with net revenue reaching VND 5,811 bn (-34.9% QoQ, -19.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 793 bn (-20.5% YoY). The decline was primarily due to Tet-related sales being concentrated in Q4-FY24, as the 2025 Lunar New Year fell earlier (in January), along with tighter consumer beer spending driven by Decree 168. Additionally, SAB completed the “Sabibeco” transaction, which incurred a one-off financial cost of VND 91 bn.
- A bright spot in SAB’s otherwise subdued Q1 performance was the reduction in input costs. The company had fully consumed its higher-cost raw material inventory in 2024, and starting in 2025, input prices have returned to average levels. This tailwind is expected to be more evident in upcoming quarters as one-off financial expenses no longer recur.
- With SAB’s business outlook entering a saturation phase post-COVID and the looming impact of a sharp increase in special consumption taxes, the key investment highlight lies in its steadily rising cash dividend payouts. SAB has gradually increased its dividend payout ratio since the post-COVID period—when the beer industry began to show signs of stagnation—ranging from 60% to 120%. Dividends are funded by the company’s annual net profit and a sizably retained earnings balance of approximately VND 9,200 bn.
- SAB is well-suited for dividend-focused investment strategies, offering a dividend yield of 10.4% per annum. It also appeals to value-oriented investors seeking opportunities in undervalued stocks following sharp market corrections—particularly as SAB’s market price gradually approaches its fair value of VND 48,000 per share, which already reflects the anticipated headwinds in 2025.
Legalization of Resolution 42: Impacts and Opportunities for the Banking Sector
30-06-2025
: ACB, VIB, VPB, STB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The three core provisions of Resolution 42 include: (1) the right to seize collateral, (2) the attachment of assets used as collateral for non-performing loans (NPLs) by parties subject to enforcement, and (3) the return of collateral used as evidence in criminal cases. The National Assembly approved these provisions during its 9th Session of the 15th Tenure on June 27, 2025, and will take effect from October 15, 2025.
- We believe the most significant impact of legalization of Resolution 42 lies in the provision granting the right to seize collateral, which enhances borrowers’ awareness of debt repayment obligations, particularly for NPLs, due to the legal pressure to surrender collateral. Once a loan is classified as non-performing and the borrower is unable to repay, the borrower is required to voluntarily surrender the collateral to the bank for processing (in compliance with legal conditions for seizure) or to dispose of the collateral to settle the debt. This enables banks to avoid initiating lawsuits in cases where the securing party does not cooperate, thereby expediting the collateral recovery process.
- The provision on asset attachment for collateral related to enforcement ensures alignment between the rights of secured creditors, such as credit institutions, and the execution of judgments or decisions by competent authorities. It prevents civil enforcement agencies from attaching pledged or mortgaged assets when the debtor has no other collateral available or when available collateral is insufficient, thereby safeguarding the interests of creditors.
- Regarding the provision on the return of collateral used as evidence in criminal cases, once the evidence verification process is completed and deemed not to affect the case, the competent procedural authority is responsible for returning the collateral to the secured party upon request. This protects the rights of credit institutions to process collateral and accelerates the recovery and resolution of NPLs.
- The codification of Resolution 42 is expected to deliver broad benefits to the banking sector in addressing NPLs. Furthermore, we anticipate that banks with a high retail lending portfolio may benefit more significantly from the seizure and processing of collateral, provided the collateral has clear and complete legal documentation, free from disputes or legal restrictions. Retail loan collateral is typically less complex and easier to process, significantly reducing the costs associated with NPL resolution. This eliminates the need for extensive resource allocation across multiple locations for legal proceedings to seize collateral, as was required after Resolution 42 expired.
4M2025 Rubber Market – Short-Term Adjustment Due to the Impact of Tariffs
27-06-2025
: DPR, PHR
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Rubber
- World rubber prices at the beginning of the second quarter of 2025 adjusted down due to the impact of US-China tariff tensions. However, the impact is only short-term and the price has shown signs of recovery.
- Global rubber supply generally continues to be low with declining output in major exporting countries (Indo, Malay, Vietnam,...). Meanwhile, consumption demand remains stable, maintaining an imbalance between supply and demand.
- In the context of rubber prices continuing to recover from the short-term effects of tariffs, along with the example of continued supply shortages while demand remains stable are the reasons why we think rubber prices are likely to continue to recover and anchor at a high level in the second half of 2025.
POW-Business Results Q1/2025 led by Southeast gas-fired cluster
26-06-2025
: POW
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q1/2025, POW revenue and net profit after tax – minority interest (NPATMI) increased by 31% and 60% YoY, respectively.
- The Company's dispatched output increased by 20% YoY, led by the recovery of Nhon Trach 1 (+3,446% YoY) and Nhon Trach 2 (+291% YoY).
- The Company's average selling price increased by 8% YoY despite the total electricity market price decreasing by 17% YoY, coming from the Company's contracted output increasing by 55% YoY.
- Stable gas and coal fuel prices helped POW's gross profit improve by 117% YoY, equivalent to a 4 pps YoY increase in gross profit margin.
MONETARY MARKET UPDATE JUN 2025: THE AMPLE VND LIQUIDITY AMID TIGHT USD SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE
25-06-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) conducted net liquidity withdrawals for the third consecutive month in June 2025. A notable development this month was the SBV’s resumption of bill issuance after more than three months of suspension, driven by a sharp decline in overnight lending rates.
- Credit growth accelerated significantly from the end of Q1 and maintained steady momentum throughout the first two months of Q2. While deposit interest rates remained relatively stable and credit growth was robust, commercial banks actively raised capital through bond issuance at a scale double that of the same period last year.
- The USD/VND exchange rate continued to move contrary to the trend of other Asian currencies in June 2025. The approaching expiration of delaying reciprocal tariff, combined with a renewed negative VND-USD interest rate differential in June, pushed pressure on the exchange rate outlook. However, the current level of depreciation remains under control along with the SBV’s proactive interventions. These pressures could gradually ease if negotiation outcomes align with expectations and the SBV intervenes in the open market to narrow the VND-USD interest rate gap.
- Nonetheless, in the second half of 2025, the foreign currency supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight due to three factors: 1. The trade surplus has been gradually shrinking in recent months; 2. Foreign investment flows are shifting as tariff-related uncertainties become clearer; and 3. Economic growth pressures are prompting increased credit and public investment, raising concerns that inflation expectations may rise in the future, potentially boosting demand for USD hoarding
10-07-2025
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