FMC - Q1-2024 profit is the highest profitable Q1 over the years
26-04-2024
: FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Q1-2024: revenue reached VND 1,461 bn (or USD 58 mn) (+45% YoY) as a 49.5% increase in shrimp revenue with production up 26% YoY and shrimp selling price in VND increase 18.6% YoY. However, the raw shrimp prices increase in Q4-2023 make the gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points YoY. As a result, PAT only increased by 18% YoY, reaching VND 57.2 bn (or USD 2 mn).
- Q2-2024: we estimate revenue to reach VND 1,214 bn (or USD 48 mn) (+18% YoY) as a 10% YoY increase in shrimp export volume and a selling price in VND equivalent to Q1-2024 (+7% YoY). PAT is estimated to reach VND 88 bn (or USD 3.5 mn) (+16% YoY) as selling expenses increase.
- In 2024, we have raised our revenue forecast to VND 5,917 bn (or USD 236 mn) (+16% YoY), assuming shrimp export volume will increase by 10.8% YoY and the selling price in VND will increase by 5.5% YoY, while gross profit margin decreases from 11% to 10.1% as an expected 20% increase in self-cultivated shrimp production instead of 29% YoY. As a result, NPAT-MI is projected to decrease to VND 318 bn (or USD 12.7 mn) (+15% YoY). EPS for 2024 is estimated at 4,857 VND (+15% YoY).
- We slightly reduced the target price from VND 52,600 per share to VND 52,300 per share due to the adjusted decrease in gross margin for 2024. Combined with the expected cash dividend of VND 2,000, the expected profit for the next 12 months is 12% compared to the closing price of VND 48,550 per share on April 26, 2024. We recommend ACCUMULATE this stock.
Update on monetary market in April 2024
25-04-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The SBV intervenes to manage exchange rate expectations.
- Banking system liquidity shows signs of mild stress in April 2024.
- Credit improves, but the recovery path is challenging
IMP - Trading off profit to boost sales volume
24-04-2024
: IMP
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Quan Cao
Tags: Pharmaceuticals IMP
- In Q1-FY24, net revenue and NPAT reached VND 491 billion (+2% YoY) and VND 78 billion (-8% YoY) respectively, competion 21%/12% of our annual plan and 23%/21% of our forecast for 2024.
- After three consecutive quarters of high discount rates (about 10% of revenue), we adjust the discount rate upward upon observing changes in IMP's sales policy. Consequently, we revise revenue down by 3% from the previous forecast. Forecast net revenue reaches VND 2,166 billion (+9% YoY).
- Adjusting gross profit margin downward from 42% to 40%. NPAT to reach VND 296 billion (flat compared to the same period) and decrease by 19% compared to the previous forecast.
- The target price for IMP at 67,700 VND per share, combined with a dividend of 1,000 VND per share for a total return of 7%. We maintain an ACCUMULATE recommendation.
VNM – Stock market prices has decreased to attractive levels
23-04-2024
: VNM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: An Nguyen
Tags: VNM Market prices AGM
- Vinamilk set 2024 business targets with revenue and net profit of VND 63,163 bn (or USD 2,527 mn) and VND 9,376 bn (USD 375 mn), respectively. We interpret that this is a conservative plan, in the pillars of (1) successful outcomes of VNM's strategic initiative; (2) advantage of below-year ago raw milk powder costs; and (3) VNM’s history of high completion rate for its annual business targets.
- 2024 Net sales and NPAT-MI is predicted to be VND 63,065 bn (or USD 2,523 mn; +4.5% YoY) and VND 9,462 bn (or USD 378 mn; +6.6% YoY), respectively. The equivalent EPS is VND4,075. Sales will be driven by the growth in both domestic and oversea markets. NPAT-MI to increase at a higher pace than the revenue, supported by decreased input costs.
- We combined FCFF valuation model (50%) and multiples comparison (50%) with an applied 2024 P/E of 18.0x, producing the target price of VND81,500. Adding an expected cash dividend of VND3,850, the 12-month expected return is 33% compared to the closing price on Apr 22nd 2024, equivalent to BUY recommendation.
MBB - Credit cost maintained at high level
22-04-2024
: MBB
: Banking
: Chinh Dang
Tags:
- In Q1/2024, credit growth reached 0.39% YTD, with customer loans up 0.7% YTD and corporate bond decreasing 4.4% YTD. Cost of funding (annualized) and asset yield (annualized) continued to decelerate in Q1, decreasing by 54 bps and 72 bps respectively, leading to NIM (annualized) dropping 26 bps compared to Q4/2023 to 4.04%. Consequently, net interest income declined by 11% YoY.
- Non-interest income sources grew 73.5%, offsetting the decline in interest income, resulting in total operating income reaching VND 12 trillion (USD 489.80 mn) in Q1/2024, almost flat compared to the same period. On the cost side, provision expenses increased by 46.4% yoy, while operating expenses decreased slightly by 1.5% yoy, resulting in a PBT of VND 5.8 trillion (USD 236.73 mn) (-11% yoy), achieving 20% of the 2024 profit plan.
- Despite robust growth in non-interest income during the first quarter, the performance of NIM and credit cost is trending less favorably than our expectations. Therefore, we are in the process of reviewing our forecasts and valuation for 2024. Our latest forecast for PBT in 2024 stands at VND 30.3 trillion (USD 1.24 billion) (+15% yoy); with the corresponding target price (TP) at VND 28,200 per share.
2024 Vietnam Automobile Outlook – Gradual recovery after the historic lows last year
19-04-2024
: HAX
: Automobiles
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- According to VAMA, in 3M-2024, Vietnam’s car sales volume decreased by -21.5% YoY. We suppose automobile consumption will be subdued in the following quarters before gradually increasing from mid-2024 owing to the expected recovery phase in both global and local economy. We anticipate two-digit sales growth from last year’s historic low. We also expect that the decreasing of borrowing interest rate will stimulate the large capital-intensive consumption such as cars.
- We suppose that the reduction in SG&A exp/net sales in the demand recovery environment, combining with the easing of borrowing interest rate, the operating margin of automobile dealers will have the flexible room to improve, supporting its earnings to reach triple-digit growth.
- Regarding the rising trend of electric vehicle deployment globally, as per the Vietnam’s Ministry of Transport, the total number of certified Electric and Hybrid cars in Vietnam reached 28,000 and 3,557 units, respectively, in 2023, a significant increase from only 167 units in 2021. Nonetheless, we believe it is premature to anticipate electric vehicles emerging as a pivotal catalyst for automobile stocks (such as HAX, CTF) as Vietnam's infrastructure is insufficient in terms of charging capacity and number of charging stations
The US economy outperformed, and sticky inflation signals a higher for longer rate
17-04-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Luân Phạm
Tags:
- US CPI inflation stayed hotter than forecast again.
- Resilient consumption bolsters U.S. labor market amidst high-interest rates.
- No rate cuts in 2024 at all?
TCH – Company with potential land bank in Hai Phong city
16-04-2024
: TCH
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: TCH
- Thuy Nguyen city will be the location of the administrative center of Hai Phong city, along with large industrial clusters and development orientation for new urban areas to attract residents. In terms of residential sector, TCH is the outstanding name with large-scale projects in this area (New City, Green River, Do Muoi), which has almost completed site clearance and they can be deployed in the period 2024-2025
- For the FY2023 (from 01/04/2023 to 31/03/2024), we expect TCH to continue to record positive results from the real estate sector, when the Hoang Huy Commerce project (apartment project, opens for sale in the period 2021-2022) has been completed and began handing over from November 2023. With the expectation that the company can hand over ~70% of the total units in the 3rd and 4th quarters of the FY2023, we estimate that the company can record revenue of ~ VND 2,500 bn from handing over the HH Commerce project. Thereby, the company's FY23 profit can reach VND927 bn (+93% YoY; of which, for the 3 quarters of the FY2023, the company has reached 78% of the estimated profit).
- TCH shares are traded at a P/B of 1.2x, lower than the industry average P/B (1.5x), which is a relatively attractive valuation compared to the potential to exploit the land bank in Hai Phong city (center of large industrial clusters in the Northern region).
Trade growth in Q1 2024 is high but the outlook is not really bright
15-04-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags:
- Trade outperformed in 2M2024 thanks to low base effects.
- Exports of technology products led the recovery.
- Low base effect supports double-digit trade growth in 1H2024.
Oil and Gas Industry - Anticipating a New Cycle in 2024
12-04-2024
: PVS, PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Ngan Le
Tags:
- Amid tightening supply and rising demand, most forecasts expect Brent oil prices to hover around USD 83/barrel, with no signs of cooling off in 2024. This environment of elevated oil prices is expected to support the upward trend of oilfield service costs and revive exploration activities. At the same time, the focus of Vietnam's oil and gas sector in the 2024-2026 period will be on the B-O Mon block series of projects, which will create additional employment opportunities for upstream oil companies.
- We forecast that 6 to 8 new oil and gas projects with a combined potential investment of USD 11 bn will be launched in the two years of 2024 - 2025.
Textile & garment sector – Gradual recovery ahead
11-04-2024
: STK, TNG, TCM, MSH
: Textile & Garment
: Hoai Trinh
Tags: Textile & Garment
- We believe that (1) the demand for textile products has not yet strongly rebounded globally, and (2) high inventory levels in the US market will cause the recovery of the Vietnamese textile & garment sector to slow down in the first half of 2024.
- In the first three months of 2024, Vietnam's textile export turnover has shown signs of recovery from the low base of 2023, reaching USD 7.8 bn (+9.0% YoY). Specifically, in March, export growth was recorded at 1.4% YoY, a slowdown compared to the 13.4% YoY seen in the cumulative first two months of the year. For Q1/2024, the import volume of fabric reached USD 3.157 mn (+5.8% YoY). After two months of positive growth, March saw a decline in fabric import turnover, marking a decrease of 6.4% YoY. We note that Q1/2023 was a low base. Therefore, the fabric import growth in Q1/2024 could indicate that a surge in textile manufacturing orders in Q2/2024 might be unlikely.
- For 2024, the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) has planned for the export of textile products to reach a value of approximately USD44 mn (+9% YoY), with expectations pinned on a rebound in consumption and the leaner inventory in the export markets.
Pharmaceutical industry – Step into the phase of stable growth
10-04-2024
: DBD, IMP
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- According to IQVIA, the total pharmaceutical market size in Vietnam reached USD 8.5 billion (+6% YoY), with revenue from the ETC and OTC channels reached USD 3.4 billion (+18% YoY) and USD 5.1 billion (-1% YoY), respectively.
- In a favorable policy environment, we believe that the ETC channel will continue to be the primary growth driver for the pharmaceutical industry in 2024. The OTC channel is expected to experience stable growth in line with the overall industry growth rate.
- In the long term, Vietnam’s pharmaceutical industry will benefit from an aging population and increasing population expenditure on pharmaceuticals.
26-04-2024
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