30-10-2025VNINDEX1669.57-16.26-0.96% HNXIndex266.96-1.08-0.40% UPCOM113.420.780.69% VN301925.18-24.58-1.26% VN1001835.82-23.29-1.25% HNX30578.42-2.99-0.51% VNXALL2881.83-34.02-1.17% VNX503180.7-41.89-1.30% VNMID2380.39-20.58-0.86% VNSML1545.611.600.10% U.S. credit market remains resilient to short-term shocks
31-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Collapse of First Brands and Tricolor amplifies credit quality concerns in the U.S. private sector
- Economic resilience and capital buffers keep U.S. Financial system under control
Gold Exchange: Information on the pilot and reference to the Shanghai Gold Exchange
30-10-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- In October 2025, the SBV proposed 03 pilot models for establishing a gold exchange: (1) Establishment of a National Gold Exchange; (2) Allowing gold to be traded on the commodity exchange; (3) Setting up a gold exchange in the Vietnamese international financial center. The pilot project requires a trial-and-error mechanism to allow for step-by-step refinement throughout implementation process, in order to align with Vietnam’s evolving economic context, available resources, infrastructure capacity, and the gradual development of a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework.
- In the Asian region, we consider the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to be a relevant reference model for Vietnam’s pilot gold exchange, for several reasons: (1) It was established and supervised by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), has operated for many years, and possesses a relatively mature regulatory and operational framework; (2) Its trading activities are primarily focused on physical spot gold, which aligns with Vietnam’s initial pilot phase; (3) It features a clear and well-structured membership system, along with a roadmap for expanding market participation from domestic members and investors to international participants.
Vietnam Petroleum supply – demand outlook and Impact on retail fuel companies
29-10-2025
: PLX, OIL
: Petroleum Distribution
: Huong Le
Tags: E10 biofuel Electric vehicles (EVs) BEVs PHEVs
- We believe Vietnam’s petroleum market remains in a relatively balanced supply–demand condition, with the Dung Quat and Nghi Son refineries together meeting around 70% of domestic demand. However, dependence on imported ethanol and fluctuations in global crude prices remain key risks.
- Fuel volume demand is expected to grow steadily by 3 - 4% per year through 2030, supported by economic recovery and transport infrastructure expansion. Nonetheless, growth momentum will likely moderate post-2028 as electric vehicles (EVs) become more common and energy efficiency policies tighten. In addition, the shift toward E10 biofuel could open opportunities for market share expansion for PLX and other leading players, though challenges related to ethanol costs and blending infrastructure investment.
- We also expect the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in Vietnam to have only a limited impact on fuel demand in the short term. Over the long term, the effect will depend on factors like government incentives, charging infrastructure development, and production costs. International experience shows that EV adoption usually varies across markets and does not grow in a straight line.
LHG - Shortage of revenue from IP land lease
28-10-2025
: LHG
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In Q3, LHG reported revenue of VND 112 billion (+23% YoY, -50% QoQ), comprising: 1/ VND 55 billion from leasing ready-built factories (RBFs) – driven by high occupancy rates at existing facilities, with no new projects commencing operations; 2/ No revenue recognized from industrial land leasing, as no new tenants were secured (versus positive contributions in 1H2025). LHG posted modest net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 46 billion (+10% YoY, -49% QoQ) – in line with expectations given the absence of land leasing revenue.
- Regarding the high-rise factory project (Phase 2, 26,000 m² GLA), the external structure is now complete, with ongoing work focused on fire protection systems and internal infrastructure fit-out. The company maintains its schedule for inauguration in December 2025, positioning the asset for leasing eligibility in 2026 – a key driver supporting projected RBF revenue of VND 252 billion in 2026 (+15.6% YoY).
Monetary Market update Otc 2025: Interest rate and Exchange rate undercurrents
27-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The SBV raised the lending scale in the open market operations (OMO) in October. Overall, the SBV did not significantly boost liquidity support for the banking system during the month. However, the pace of net injections tended to accelerate from mid-October, when interbank interest rates surpassed the 5.0% per annum threshold.
- With the SBV’s cautious policy stance, we expect interbank rates to remain elevated in the final months of the year. At the same time, the upward trend in deposit rates at commercial banks is likely to become more evident as credit growth accelerates in the last quarter.
- Given the current growth momentum and referencing historical credit patterns in the fourth quarter of previous years, total credit growth in 2025 is estimated at 19–20%, exceeding the SBV’s initial target of 16%.
- Over the past month, several fragmented warnings from the authorities have been issued regarding the issuance and use of bond mobilization funds by credit institutions, tighter control over lending for real estate deposits under private agreements, and enhanced supervision to prevent arbitrage between official and unofficial exchange rates.
- The record-high gap between the official and free-market exchange rates reflects, to some extent, limited USD supply both within and outside the banking system. In the short term, the SBV’s committed future foreign currency supply (around USD 4.4 billion) serves as a key anchor for the official exchange rate. Nonetheless, we believe that the abnormal spread between the two markets will not persist for long. Moreover, the free-market exchange rate movements may be pricing in expectations of VND depreciation pressure in 2026
SCS – The recovery of international cargo volume helped the company regain its growth momentum
24-10-2025
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation SCS
- Revenue and NPAT reached VND 311 billion (+7% QoQ, +17% YoY) and VND 204 billion (+8% QoQ, +10% YoY), respectively. The company’s performance regained growth momentum in Q3-FY25, supported by the recovery of international cargo volume during the peak season and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Profitability ratios remained stable at high levels during Q3-FY25. The gross margin stayed resilient at 80% (-1.1 pps QoQ, -0.6 pps YoY). The SG&A/revenue ratio was well-controlled at 5.2% (-0.4 pps QoQ, +0.1 pps YoY). The net profit margin stood at 64.8% (+1 pps QoQ, -7 pps YoY). The YoY contraction in net margin mainly reflected the expiration of SCS’s preferential corporate income tax rate.
- In October 2025, SCS’s share price experienced a short-term correction following news that Vietnam Airlines was selected as the investor of Cargo Terminal No. 2 at Long Thanh International Airport. However, we believe this development does not materially alter SCS’s long-term outlook, as the company’s strategic focus is on becoming the operator of Cargo Terminal No. 1. Moreover, there has been no official announcement regarding the selection of the operating entity for this terminal. We maintain a OBSERVE recommendation on SCS.
NT2– Q3/2025 business performance maintains growth momentum
23-10-2025
: NT2
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q3/2025, NT2's revenue increased by 13% YoY (-7% YoY), while profit after tax – minority interest increased sharply (+384% YoY).
- NT2's quarterly gross profit margin reached 10.6% (+7.1 pps YoY) thanks to a high contractual output (Qc) exceeding actual production and a 4% YoY decline in gas fuel prices.
- In 2025, NT2 benefits from an unusually high alpha rate and Qc output exceeding actual production, but this trend is unlikely to last and may return to 85–90% from 1Q2026.
- In Q4/2025, we expect the company's Qm and Qc output to improve by 20%/58% YoY, thanks to high mobilization demand in the year-end period.
- NT2's business performance in 2026 is expected to continue to improve thanks to (1) the ENSO cycle moving to the neutral phase, boosting gas-fired power mobilization, and (2) gross profit margin supported by stable fuel prices and a sharp decline in depreciation costs.
BMP and NTP: Q3-2025 Business Results Update
22-10-2025
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Plastic
- Revenue: Revenue of BMP and NTP reached 1.532 trillion VND (+9% YoY; +17% QoQ) and 1.609 trillion VND (+34% YoY; -19% QoQ), respectively, both at high levels for the period from 2019 to 2025. BMP's positive revenue growth compared to NTP is mainly supported by the southern consumption market (BMP's main market) recovering better than the northern market (NTP's main market) due to the impact of storms and rains.
- Gross profit: BMP and NTP's gross profits remained high thanks to low plastic resin costs, reaching 734 billion VND (+21%
YoY, +48% QoQ) and 500 billion VND (+46% YoY, -22% QoQ), respectively. - Discount policy: BMP significantly increased sales discounts, while NTP showed no significant changes.
Net profit: BMP and NTP recorded historically high net profits, reaching 350 billion VND (+21% YoY; +6.3% QoQ) and 257
billion VND (+18.5% YoY; -19.6% QoQ), respectively. - Financial structure: In general, the financial structure of both BMP and NTP is strong, with high cash reserves and low debtto-equity ratios
OCB – Positive credit growth outlook for the 2025-2026 period
21-10-2025
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: OCB
- OCB’s credit growth in the first half of 2025 remained modest (8.2% YTD) compared to the industry average (9.9% YTD). Growth momentum mainly came from lending to the Construction (+140% YTD) and Real Estate business (+18% YTD) sectors.
- In late 2025 and 2026, OCB’s credit portfolio is expected to expand rapidly, driven by borrowing demand from property developers and construction contractors for project development. In addition, upcoming linked real estate projects are likely to boost mortgage products for individual homebuyers, thereby improving the retail lending segment, which has been underperforming, and expanding NIM.
- OCB’s PBT is projected to reach over VND 4.5 trillion in 2025 and VND 5.7 trillion in 2026, equivalent to YoY growth of 13% and 26%, respectively, based on expected credit growth of 20.3% and 18.2% for 2025F and 2026F. We value OCB shares at VND 14,850 per share, implying an upside potential of 19% compared to the closing price of VND 12,450 on October 21, 2025.
9M2025 Rubber Market – A New Equilibrium Phase
20-10-2025
: DPR, PHR
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Rubber
- The gap between global demand and consumption of natural rubber has narrowed since June, when China's consumption slowed and rubber began to harvest.
- We realize that the demand for natural rubber is entering a period of slowing growth, reflecting the adjustment of the automobile and tire markets in the context of many uncertainties in the global economy. The sum of supply-demand factors shows that the global natural rubber market is entering a new equilibrium phase, with limited supply while demand slows down.
- We expect natural rubber prices to remain stable around the current level in the medium term, thanks to supply not increasing sharply while inventories are low. In the long term, the price may record a recovery trend again as macro factors improve leading to strong growth of the global automotive industry again, however it will be necessary to monitor more factors affecting the supply and demand of the market.
Trade Update Oct 2025: Stronger-than-expected export performance
17-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Vietnam’s trade activity continued to maintain solid growth momentum two months after the new tariff measures took effect. This outcome contrasts with our earlier expectations for several reasons: 1. Strong FDI-led growth: Vietnam’s tariff rates remain lower than China’s, and the issue of transshipment has not been further clarified. This has allowed Vietnam’s FDI sector to expand exports to the U.S. market and 2. Stable global demand: Despite ongoing trade tensions, global demand has remained resilient. In its latest report, the IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% for 2025 and maintained 3.1% for 2026.
- In 9M2025, Vietnam’s exports grew 16.4% YoY, led by electronics exports (+25.5%) and shipments to the U.S. (+27.7%). The FDI sector continued to outperform the domestic sector, with export growth of 21.6% versus 3.7%, respectively.
- The trade surplus narrowed 16.5% YoY to USD16.8 billion. Within this, the FDI sector’s surplus declined slightly by 2.2% YoY, while the domestic sector’s trade deficit widened 9.6%.
- The fastest-growing export categories to the U.S. market were toys, electronics, chemicals, and plastics & rubber. Meanwhile, key export products of the domestic sector - including seafood, wood products, footwear, and textiles & garments grew at a more moderate pace.
- The U.S.–China trade tensions have escalated again. On October 10, the U.S. President announced a 100% tariff on imports from China, following recent measures restricting semiconductor exports from the U.S. and imposing rare-earth export controls by China over the past month.
- We believe the renewed escalation may serve as a strategic bargaining move by both sides ahead of a potential Trump–Xi meeting at the APEC Summit in late October. Hence, tensions may cool down after the meeting. However, the deep-rooted structural conflicts between the two economies suggest that the U.S.–China trade war is far from over
Sugar sector outlook for the new crop year 2025-26 – Difficulties are not over
16-10-2025
: QNS, SBT
: Sugar
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- As of September 2025, global raw sugar prices reached $0.35/kg, down -21.9% YoY, with further declines expected due to weak U.S. demand amid tariff impacts on consumer confidence, while supply recovers from better-than-expected production in Brazil and Thailand, and anticipated easing of India’s sugar export ban.
- In Vietnam, excess inventories at mills surged post strong 2023-24 and 2024-25 harvests, compounded by rising illegal cane sugar imports and high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) inflows. Firms with robust sugar output are forced to sacrifice selling prices, and vice versa. As of September 2025, AnKhe sugar prices at mills stood at VND 17,500/kg (-13.0% YoY).
- We note a strong correlation (90%) between domestic sugar price trends and sugar industry stocks like QNS. Thus, we recommend investors closely monitor domestic sugar price movements to make informed short- and long-term investment decisions in sugar-related stocks.
31-10-2025
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