21-08-2026VNINDEX1768.1233.881.95% HNXIndex284.075.521.98% UPCOM127.520.280.22% VN301927.7940.732.16% VN1001837.7742.202.35% HNX30460.9515.343.44% VNXALL2847.9364.412.31% VNX503229.3177.542.46% VNMID1956.5256.012.95% VNSML1263.6518.611.49% MSB – Credit growth accelerates significantly, but profit growth yet to be reflected YoY
05-08-2026
: MSB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- MSB's consolidated Q2/2026 profit before tax (PBT) reached over VND1.5 trillion (-19% QoQ, -1% YoY). Consequently, 1H2026 PBT grew by only 8% YoY, and the ROAE ratio declined to 13.9% (-40 bps QoQ, 0 bps YoY). Nevertheless, the bank's Q2/2026 business results showed bright spots: (1) Consolidated credit growth of 11.4% YTD, with the parent bank growing 10.4% YTD, higher than the industry average (8.2%); (2) Stable asset quality, with consolidated net NPL formation remaining flat compared to the previous quarter, bringing the consolidated NPL ratio down by 13 bps QoQ to 2.5%.
- Regarding the 2H2026 business plan, MSB expects additional room for credit growth and aims for a 15% target through: (1) expectations that the SBV will loosen credit quotas and (2) MSB considering lending to key national infrastructure projects that are exempt from credit growth quotas. Additionally, the plan to record income from debt sale agreement (~VND1 to VND2 trillion) in 2H2026 is expected to help the bank's full-year PBT exceed its target.
PNJ – 2Q26 Earnings: Excluding the prudential repurchase provision, core earnings remained on a growth trajectory
04-08-2026
: PNJ
: Retailing
: VDSC
Tags: PNJ
- Despite solid 2Q26 revenue growth, PNJ reported a net loss after recognizing more than VND 360bn of inventory provisions (for Q2) and VND 865bn of provisions for customer repurchase obligations (for Jul 2026) under a prudent accounting approach. Excluding the repurchase-related provision, core operating earnings would have remained on a positive YoY growth.
- Following the P-Lab incident, customer requests to resell products to PNJ increased sharply from 2 July 2026, creating short-term liquidity pressure within 03 weeks. In response, the company introduced a new settlement policy effective 21 July, under which repurchase payments are made in 05 installments over 120 days across all product categories. Based on management's disclosure, the policy has started to alleviate liquidity pressure, with daily cash outflows for repurchases declining by ~56% compared with the period prior to implementation, while 95% of customers have agreed to convert to other product catagories, instead of reselling.
- In our view, PNJ's earnings performance and cash flow in the near term are being affected not only by the recent company-specific problems but also by more cautious consumer sentiment across the gold, diamond, and jewelry markets. Against this backdrop, the company’s priorities are to preserve liquidity, optimize its cost structure, and accelerate inventory turnover (particularly for repurchased diamond jewelry, which currently represents a meaningful portion of inventories – approximately 30% of the total repurchase value). Given the elevated uncertainty, we downgrade our recommendation to Observe while awaiting additional information to reassess PNJ's earnings outlook and will provide further updates to our subsequent reports.
Banking Sector 2Q26 Results Update: Profit Accelerates on Continued Credit and Fee Income Expansion; Deposit Mobilization and Group 2 Loans Remain the Two Key Bottlenecks
03-08-2026
: VCB, CTG, BID, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, HDB, MSB, VIB, OCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Total operating income (TOI) of listed banks reached over VND 217 trillion in 2Q26 (+14% QoQ) and PBT reached nearly VND 111 trillion (+25% YoY, +18% QoQ). For 1H26, TOI amounted to more than VND 407 trillion and PBT to more than VND 205 trillion (+20% YoY). Listed banks have completed approximately 47% of their full-year 2026 PBT plans.
- The growth drivers of sector-wide revenue and profit include: (1) System-wide credit grew 8.3% YTD (or 17.4% YoY) as of end-2Q26 – with listed banks up 9.1% YTD – supporting 1H26 net interest income growth of approximately 17% YoY; (2) Net fee and service income in 1H26 reached over VND 49 trillion, up 58% YoY; (3) Other income in 1H26 reached over VND 28 trillion, up 31% YoY, notably driven by one-off gains at VCB and HDB; (4) The cost-to-income ratio (CIR) in 1H26 declined to 31.1%, from 32.1% for the full year 2025.
- Profit growth continues to diverge sharply and remains concentrated among large-scale banks: 1H26 PBT of state-owned commercial banks (SoBs) rose 30% YoY and that of large joint-stock banks rose 14% YoY, while the medium-sized group declined 7% YoY. At the individual bank level, the strongest growth came from VPB (+68% YoY), CTG (+37%), VCB (+33% YoY), HDB (+31%), MBB (+27%) and TCB (+22%); on the other side, SSB (-55%), EIB (-54%) and STB (-44%) were the main drags on overall growth.
- Issues to watch: (1) Deposit mobilization remains a bottleneck, with deposit growth at listed banks reaching only 5.0% YTD, 3.3 ppts below credit growth, and total mobilization standing roughly VND 2.8 quadrillion below outstanding credit; LDR ratios at most banks remain close to the 85% ceiling and sector-wide CASA is flat at a low 20.9% amid the continued rise in deposit rates during 2Q26; (2) Net Group 2 loan formation increased to nearly VND 81 trillion – the highest level since 1Q23 – lifting the Group 2 loan ratio to 1.37% (1Q26: 1.23%), while the NPL ratio was flat at 2.01% thanks to the dilution effect of high credit growth; (3) Off-balance-sheet bad debt recoveries in 2Q26 edged down 1% YoY – the first quarter of negative growth after many quarters – implying that liquidity in the real estate market is cooling.
- Looking into 2H26, we expect the following signals to help ease liquidity pressure: (1) Public investment disbursement accelerating towards year-end; (2) The SBV has issued Decision No. 1743 raising the proportion of term State Treasury deposits counted in the LDR calculation to 50% from 20% (equivalent to more than VND 165 trillion added to the deposit component of the LDR ratio), easing compliance pressure for SoBs and in turn generating more abundant supply in the interbank market; and (3) The ratio of cash in circulation outside the banking system has trended down from February 2026 (12.1%) to end-May 2026 (10.5%), while cash flows from households' gold sales in July 2026 may help deposits return to the system. A shift of the state budget into deficit remains the single most important signal to monitor in assessing when funding costs will peak. In parallel, the rising trend in Group 2 loans, in a context where provisioning buffers have not been strengthened commensurately, is the key risk to sector profit growth in the second half of the year.
SCS – Profit remains flat due to direct impact from the conflict in the Middle East
31-07-2026
: SCS
: Aviation
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2-FY26, SCS's revenue and NPAT reached VND 279 billion (-4% YoY) and VND 187 billion (-1% YoY), respectively, in line with our projections (net revenue and NPAT of VND 282 billion and VND 184 billion, respectively). International/domestic cargo volume reached 50 thousand tons (-8% YoY)/12 thousand tons (-8% YoY).
- Accumulated in 2Q2026, SCS's revenue and NPAT reached VND 551 billion (-1% YoY) and VND 361 billion (+1% YoY), respectively, completing 42%/47% of the annual plan and 42%/44% of our forecast. For 2026, revenue and NPAT are expected to reach VND 1,316 billion (+10% YoY) and VND 811 billion (+8% YoY).
The picture of Vietnam's water supply and clean water treatment industry
30-07-2026
: BWE, REE
: Utilities
: VDSC
Tags: REE BWE
- We expect clean water consumption to continue to maintain sustainable growth momentum in the long term, thanks to (1) growth in industrial production demand, (2) the trend of population urbanization, and (3) the trend of universalization of the use of clean and treated water in rural areas.
- The State has issued a water selling price mechanism, creating a basis for local governments and water supply companies to adjust selling prices based on production costs, normative profit levels, and customer structure.
- The outlook for the water sector in Vietnam is supported by stable demand, declining water loss rates, and strategic differentiation among business groups. In particular, multi-local water supply companies such as BWE and REE focus on expansion through M&A, while urban water supply companies such as Sawaco prioritize modernizing water supply systems.
Plastics Industry 1H2026: Key Players Thrive Despite Falling Demand
29-07-2026
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
: VDSC
Tags:
- Declining Output, Market Concentration: Total Q2/2026 consumption dropped to 77,000 tonnes (-24% YoY), bringing 6M2026 volume to 170,000 tonnes (-8% YoY). Industry leaders continued to gain market share (NTP +3 pps, BMP +1 pps).
- Narrowing Profit Margins: High 6M2026 margins—driven by low-cost inventory—are expected to shrink in 2H2026. PVC resin prices are projected to trade in a tight range of 750–800 USD/ton.
- 2H2026 Demand Outlook: Consumption is forecasted to remain flat or improve slightly, buoyed by (1) recovering civil construction (notably in the South) and (2) product expansion into infrastructure projects.
E10 Gasoline: The Ethanol Value chain and companies to watch
28-07-2026
: BSR, PLX, OIL
: Petroleum Distribution
: VDSC
Tags: PLX OIL BSR
- The rollout of E10 gasoline is an important step in Vietnam’s energy transition. It aims to improve energy security, support the development of the biofuel value chain, and reduce carbon emissions. At present, domestic ethanol production can only meet part of the expected demand when E10 is nationwide rollout. This creates opportunities to restart existing ethanol plants but also means that Vietnam will still rely heavily on imported ethanol in the early stage.
- The main value of the E10 supply chain is concentrated in two key segments: ethanol production and blending infrastructure. Among listed companies, BSR is well positioned as it participates in multiple stages of the value chain, while PLX and OIL benefit from their nationwide storage, blending, and distribution networks.
- From an investment perspective, E10 is unlikely to significantly increase total gasoline demand. Instead, it is expected to redistribute value across different parts of the supply chain. The opportunity will depend on the pace of the E10 rollout, the expansion of domestic ethanol supply, and the economics of blending operations.
SAB – 2Q25 earnings were flat year-on-year despite a favourable summer event season
27-07-2026
: SAB
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: VDSC
Tags:
- Despite 2Q26 coinciding with the FIFA World Cup - a quadrennial event that typically supports beer consumption, SAB delivered broadly flat results. Net revenue reached VND 6,888bn (+1.2% YoY, on a low base), while 2Q26 NPAT-MI declined 3.4% YoY to VND 1,167bn. We believe SAB significantly increased spending on advertising and promotions (A&P) during the peak season (+25.9% YoY), but these efforts have yet to stimulate demand and drive volume growth as expected. The main positive was continued support from lower input costs, backed by its 2026 aluminum can hedging and lower malt prices.
- Overall, SAB's 2Q26 earnings were below our expectations for what should have been a seasonally strong quarter. Now that the year's key demand catalysts (Lunar New Year and the World Cup) are behind us, beer stocks may lack meaningful near-term catalysts. Meanwhile, market focus is likely to shift toward 2027, when the first phase of the special consumption tax increase will take effect, potentially weighing on the industry's medium-term growth outlook.
- That said, SAB's valuation remains attractive. The stock is trading at a trailing P/E of 12.3x and a 2026F P/E of 11.8x, which is below both its five-year median of 14.9x and the industry average of 15.0x. Together with our expectation of earnings recovery in 2026, SAB continues to offer an attractive investment profile, supported by substantial remaining foreign ownership room (41.4%) and a stable cash dividend policy (~10.6% dividend yield). We are currently reviewing our forecasts and target price and will provide an update in our next report.
LHG – Stable financial performance in 1H2026
24-07-2026
: LHG
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- 1H2026 Financial Results: LHG recorded stable financial performance aligned with expectations during the first 6 months of 2026, posting net revenue and NPAT of VND 365 billion (-20% YoY) and VND 187 billion (-6% YoY), respectively. Among these, ready-built factory (RBF) leasing continued to serve as a reliable source of steady cash flow, alongside land lease revenue recognized from Plot 3G-1 in the Long Hau 3 Industrial Park.
- On the asset side, inventory remained stable at VND 824 billion, primarily concentrated in investment costs for Long Hau 3 IP, while land use fees for the LH3 residential and resettlement area (~13 hectares allocated in June) remain unpaid. The balance of customer prepayments decreased to VND 8.4 billion, reflecting a lack of notable new land tenants as of late June 2026.
TRC – Business Results Q2/2026: Siem Reap Farm enters the stage of comprehensive exploitation
23-07-2026
: TRC
: Chemicals
: VDSC
Tags: TRC
- In Q2/2026, TRC recorded revenue of VND 127.05 billion (-53.9% QoQ, -3.8% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 42.04 billion (-57.8% QoQ, +20.6% YoY).
- Siem Reap Farm (6,421 hectares, Cambodia) officially reached 100% of the area at the exploitation age from 2026 (compared to 81.3% in the 2023-2025 period), pushing the consumption output in Q2/2026 to increase by +20.1% YoY.
- Although the average selling price of rubber latex decreased from 55-57 million VND/ton to 50-52 million VND/ton in 6M2026, the increase in consumption from Siem Reap Farm and the remaining inventory largely offset the impact of the price downturn, helping the accumulated revenue in 6M2026 increase by 12% YoY.
FMC – Business results Q2/2026- Declining selling price of raw shrimp promotes growth
22-07-2026
: FMC
: Fishery
: VDSC
Tags:
- FMC’s net revenue Q2/2026 reached VND 1,675 billion in Q2/2026 (-11% YoY), primarily due to an 11% decline in the shrimp segment. Shrimp consumption volume reached 4,491 tons (-8% YoY), while the average selling price decreased slightly by 3% to VND 334,000/kg. The sharp drop in volume resulted from the company’s strategy to limit exports to the US while awaiting the final results of the POR20 anti-dumping duty review.
- On a positive note, the gross profit margin improved significantly to 15.0% (+ 444 bps YoY), driven by the shrimp segment’s margin rising from 9.8% to 14.1%. The improvement in shrimp margin was due to raw material prices declining faster than selling prices (-17% vs -3% YoY). The SG&A expense/revenue ratio increased slightly to 7.3% from 6.9% due to lower revenue, but net financial income rose 32% YoY thanks to a 211% surge in interest income from deposits, while interest expenses only increased 45% YoY. As a result, NPAT-MI grew strongly by 93% YoY to VND 155 billion.
- In the first six months of 2026 (1H2026), net revenue reached VND 3,073 billion (-21% YoY), mainly due to an 18% YoY decline in shrimp volume. However, thanks to effective cost control, the gross profit margin improved to 11.4% (+307 bps YoY), driving NPAT-MI up 78% YoY to VND 196 billion.
- These results represent 38% of the company’s full-year revenue target and 50% of the profit target, equivalent to 36% and 51% of our previous forecasts, respectively. We expect to make a slight downward adjustment to our 2026 revenue forecast but maintain the NPAT-MI projection at VND 384 billion (+10% YoY). We anticipate that gross margin improvement — rather than revenue growth — will be the main driver from Q3/2026 onward, as the company awaits the final decision on the POR20 anti-dumping duties.
- We maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation on FMC stock with a short-term target price of VND 38,800 per share.
Macro Update: Strong growth, but balancing interest rates and exchange rates is the bottleneck that needs to be resolved
21-07-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: VDSC
Tags:
- Growth remains high, driven by FDI. GDP in the second quarter grew by 8.39%, with industrial production and exports continuing to be led by the FDI sector. Meanwhile, total retail sales increased by 12.9% at current prices but only by 7.3% after excluding price factors, indicating that real purchasing power has not yet broken through proportionally. The average CPI for the first six months was 4.38%, leaving limited room for inflation control in the second half of the year.
- Investment (including private investment, FDI, and the public investment) has become a pillar of growth and a crucial source of additional liquidity. Public investment disbursement accelerated significantly in June, bringing the cumulative value for the first six months to VND 356.9 trillion, equivalent to 35.5% of the plan. In the context of weak consumption and a shift towards a trade deficit, investment is expected to be the main driver of growth in the second half of the year.
- Banking system liquidity is the bottleneck determining the outlook for interest rates and exchange rates. Credit growth is outpacing deposit growth, and greater reliance on short-term funding in the interbank market is increasing maturity mismatches. Therefore, interest rates are unlikely to drop sharply in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the exchange rate is currently supported by the VND–USD interest rate differential and FDI inflows; however, if public investment disbursement is strong and the dollar strengthens, it will still exert pressure on the exchange rate in the second half of 2026.
05-08-2026
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