Industrial Parks – Upcoming trends and key take away
29-07-2022
29-07-2022:
: Real Estate
: Le Tu Quoc Hung
Tags:
- Industrial Parks including accommodation, social amenities, public services will be pulling factors to both workers and investors in the long - run.
- Including ESG related factors into industrial park planning will be a must.
- Besides leasing land and receiving a one-off payment, IP developers can take a portion of total IP area to build up other higher value – added products that could attract other types of customers. Those products include ready-built factory, ready-built warehouse, cold storage, data center.
19 BMP – More Pricing Pressures in 2H but Margin Could be Stable
28-07-2022
: BMP
: Materials
: Tam Pham
Tags:
- Selling volume declined -12% YoY in 1H2022, caused by the slow construction activities and public investment disbursement. Consumption in 2H could be stable as in 1H.
- The stronger rises in selling prices compared to input prices has widened profit margin in 1H.
- PVC resin price has started to fall quickly since mid-June. Therefore, from Q3, it is highly possible that selling prices will be adjusted down to stimulate demand and maintain competitiveness.
- Holistically, 2022 revenue and PAT could reach VND 5,305 billion (+16,5%) and VND 461 billion (+115%). Our forecast of 2022 has been revised up to reflect the recent deep fall in PVC resin price. The new target price is VND 70,300/share, 7% higher than the previous one. With an expected cash dividend of VND 2,800/share, the upside potential is 24%, based on the closing price of July 27, 2022.
DRC – Strong sales growth offsets significant increase in input costs
27-07-2022
: DRC
: Automobiles
: An Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q2 2022, DRC recorded net sales of VND1,148 bn (or USD 49 mn, -10.6% QoQ; -4.7% YoY), of which, domestic market posted a negative growth. Although DRC raised the average selling price (ASP) by over +15% YoY during Mar-2021 and Jun-2022, it could only pass a part of increasing production costs to customers, resulting in 2Q2022 net profit of VND84 bn (or USD 3.6 mn, -27.3 %QoQ; -20.8% YoY).
- We expect 2022 sales will grow by +17.5% YoY to VND5,147 bn (or USD 220 mn), supported by increasing tire consumption in both overseas after two-year disruption because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Equipped by expected downward adjustment of input prices compared to 1H2022, 2022 net profit is expected to reach VND306 bn (or USD 13.1 mn, +5.1% YoY).
- Using a combination of FCFF and PER, we arrive at a target price of VND34,700 in the next 12 months. Adding a cash dividend of VND1,200, the 12-months expected return is +32% compared to the closing price on July 26th. Therefore, we recommend to BUY this stock.
Seafood sector – Sharp increase in 1H 2022 but many challenges to come in 2H 2022
26-07-2022
:
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
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China’s 2H22 economic outlook
25-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- China's Q2/2022 economic growth is slower than expected.
- Outlook for 2H22: Slow recovery.
- Some implications for Vietnam.
Too early for the long-term bull case: Will the nickel price keep stay high?
22-07-2022
:
: Chemicals
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- A roller coaster ride for nickel in 2022 to reach a 15-year high but it is expected to stabilize again in the longer term
- Rusia is the main provider of class I nickel mining while China is the largest player for refining
- Near-term demand is still dominated by stainless steel
- Hard to bet on a remained well-priced story of nickel in an evolving rapidly EV battery industry
PE ratios and valuations
21-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:
- One dilemma faced by investors is not necessarily whether the ‘E’ is correctly priced in the P/E ratio but whether the long-term trend in ‘earnings growth’ is reflecting the ‘real GDP’.
- US nominal GDP is growing at its highest rate in the past twenty-five years.
Banking sector – Update on the money market
21-07-2022
:
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- The USD/VND exchange rate continued to appreciate due to the USD strength in the international markets and local USD shortage caused by robust demand. The exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate this week as a result of the steady demand of FDI enterprises and customers in the petroleum and steel industries.
- Despite the SBV’s effort in monitoring VND and supporting the USD liquidity via open market operations, USD funding in the past week was still lacking, thereby hindering the recovery potential of the swap rate gap.
CMG – Thanks to CMG's core businesses, revenue and profitability in 2021 grew significantly
20-07-2022
: CMG
: Software
: Cao Ngoc Quan
Tags:
- In FY 2021 (ending March 31st, 2022), CMG recorded impressive business results, revenue and PBT growth of 21% YoY and 27% YoY thanks to the high growth of the three main fields of business, respectively. In which, Technology and Solutions/Global Business/Telecommunication recorded PBT growth of 15% YoY/634% YoY/14% YoY, respectively.
- CMG’s target revenue and PBT grow 21% and 29%, respectively.
- CMG has already entered the segment of Education & Research after successfully M&A A Chau University (Hanoi) in February 2022.
Export growth will remain high in 3Q22 due to low base effects
19-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- Key export items grew by over 20% in 1H2022.
- Export growth will remain high in 3Q2022.
- The slowdown of commodity prices will support the trade balance in 2H2022.
AST – Quarterly earnings to turn positive after two years of the pandemic
18-07-2022
: AST
: Aviation
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The robust recovery of domestic air passenger has bolstered core earnings in Q2-2022, which is expected reach VND 10 Bn.
- Ramping up operation in international terminals, amid recovering international pax, should provide stronger earnings in 2H-2022.
- While we believe that the recovery of airports’ passenger traffic will boost earnings prospect going forward, current valuation is still unjustified with 2022F P/E (assuming that the company meets profit guidance) of 103x.
Banking sector – Looking back on the money market conditions in the first half
15-07-2022
:
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- In the first half of 2022, the divergence in monetary policies caused the USDVND interest rate differentials to widen and pushed the swap rate gap deeply in the negative zone since the end of May. This factor boosted the demand for USD and supported the uptrend of the exchange rate.
- The State Bank of Vietnam adjusted the method of selling foreign currencies three times in the first year-half in order to monitor the exchange rate in accordance with the complicated circumstances and peer pressure. We think that the State Bank will continue to intervene to raise the VND interbank rates soon while keeping the policy rates stable. However, we maintain our view of macro uncertainty over the next few months when another Fed’s rate hike is expected at the end of July.
