NLG – Presales value 10M2025 recorded breakthrough growth
17-12-2025
17-12-2025: NLG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: NLG
- NLG's 10M2025 presales reached VND 9,293 billion (+85% MoM), with October alone contributing more than VND 4,200 billion thanks to the simultaneous opening of key projects such as Waterpoint, Mizuki and Izumi.
- We believe that the period 2025–2026 will serve as a "seed" for the next growth cycle, as NLG promotes sales at 9 component projects in the period 2025–2027 to accumulate presales for the recording period 2026–2027. Accordingly, presales value in 2026 are estimated at VND 11,595 billion (+8% YoY).
- According to our estimates, 2026 is not the year of NLG's revenue growth when handing over previously sold products, with revenue estimated at VND 4,700 billion (-1% YoY); however, NPAT-MI is expected to record growth and reach VND 1,664 billion (+115% YoY) thanks to the handover structure focusing on low-rise products.
48 Vietnam upstream Oil & Gas: Legal reforms catalyzing a new E&P cycle
16-12-2025
: PVS, PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVS PVD Upstream
- We believe Vietnam’s upstream oil & gas segment is entering a new investment cycle, following a prolonged downturn in exploration and production (E&P) activities. E&P capital expenditure appears to have bottomed out during 2021–2022 and has started to recover since 2023, with investment momentum expected to strengthen over 2025–2027 as operators seek to offset declining reserves and output from mature fields.
- At the same time, the E&P legal framework is being progressively refined in a more supportive direction, with a series of new regulations covering the entire value chain from seismic survey – exploration – field development – production – field expansion. We view these reforms as a structural “inflection point”, helping to address long-standing bottlenecks related to cost recovery mechanisms, project approval procedures, and production sharing arrangements.
- The combination of a recovering investment cycle and policy reform is laying the groundwork for a new growth phase in the upstream segment, which in our view could translate into meaningful opportunities for oil & gas service companies, particularly drilling contractors (PVD) and EPCI players (PVS).
HDB – 2025F PBT forecast to grow 24% YoY driven by solid expansion in non-interest income
15-12-2025
: HDB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Cumulative 9M consolidated PBT reached VND 14.8 trillion (+17% YoY), completing 70% of the full-year plan. In particular, consolidated PBT in Q3/25 exceeded VND 4.7 trillion (+0% QoQ, +5% YoY). Q3/25 profit showed positive highlights thanks to reductions in operating expenses (-11% QoQ) and provisioning expenses (-45% QoQ); however, net interest income declined significantly (-21% QoQ) due to (1) weak credit growth at the parent bank (-3.6% QoQ) and a narrowing NIM (-140 bps QoQ).
- We forecast HDB’s 2025F PBT to reach VND 20.8 trillion, up 24% YoY. Profit growth is driven by (1) credit growth of 24.9% (fulfilling the annual plan), (2) NIM declining by 40 bps YoY to 4.8%, (3) strong growth in non-interest income supported by service income (+206% YoY), gains from securities trading (+1,076% YoY), and FX trading gains (+49% YoY), and (4) operating expenses being streamlined (-6% YoY). However, a sharp increase in net newly formed NPLs during the year leads to provisioning expenses rising by 82% YoY.
- Cumulatively over 9 months, Net interest income / Total operating income / Provisioning expenses / PBT have achieved 74% / 73% / 80% / 71% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. We set a target price for HDB shares at VND 36,600/share (2026F P/B of 1.3x), equivalent to a total return of 22% based on the closing price on 15/12/2025.
3Q/2025 Business results: Electricity and office leasing segment leads profit growth
12-12-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q3/2025, REE's parent company's revenue and net profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) increased by 26% and 41% YoY, respectively. In particular, the revenue of the energy segment increased by 25% mainly thanks to the high hydropower output (+26% YoY).
- NPAT-MI of the M&E segment increased by 86% YoY thanks to the completion of the Long Thanh International Airport project.
- NPAT-MI of the real-estate improved by 33% YoY thanks to growth in occupancy rate of Etown 6 building.
FRT – Sustaining Q3 growth momentum with signs of FPT Shop recovery to exceed the 2025 plan
11-12-2025
: FRT
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- Q3 net revenue reached VND 13,110.9 billion (+26% YoY, +15% QoQ), NPAT-MI came in at VND 219 billion (+55% YoY, +84% QoQ). Cumulative 9M2025 achieved 71% and 73% of VDSC's forecast.
- Long Chau maintained strong growth, contributing 67% of total revenue (+31% YoY, +9% QoQ), supported by 151 new stores (126 pharmacies, 25 VCs) and stable average revenue per store of VND 1.16 billion (+3% QoQ). NPAT-MI reached VND 170 billion (78% of total) with NPAT-MI margin of 2% (+0.2 pps QoQ).
- FPT Shop recovered with revenue growth of 11% YoY and returned to profitability in Q3 with VND 48 billion - the highest level in the past 3 years (if excluding financial income recorded in Q3/2024).
- NPAT-MI margin improved to 1.7% (+0.3 pps YoY, +0.7 pps QoQ) thanks to the more favorable contribution mix from higher GPM items such as CE (TVs, refrigerators), dietary supplements, ETC drugs. SG&A/revenue increased slightly but remained controlled at 16.8% (+0.8 pps YoY, -1.1 pps QoQ), supporting faster top-line growth across both chains.
- We maintain a positive outlook for consumer demand in Q4 and into 2026, particularly in the pharmaceutical retail and vaccination segments. Meanwhile, demand for electronics and home appliances is expected to recover at FPT Shop from late 2025 to early 2026.
Update on PVC resin price
10-12-2025
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Plastic
- PVC prices hit historic lows: Prices across major markets have fallen to multi-year lows, reaching levels last seen in 2016 in China and 2020 in Southeast Asia.
- China-driven oversupply pressure persists: Approximately 2.5 million tons of new capacity coming online has pushed the market into an oversupplied state, with an estimated surplus of 364 thousand tons in 2025.
- India’s policy easing provides limited support: The cancellation of BIS certification has reduced technical export barriers, but remains insufficient to reverse price weakness amid ongoing global oversupply.
SIP – Operating profit to remain positive
09-12-2025
: SIP
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- In the first 9 months of 2025, SIP recorded revenue and gross profit of VND 6.3 trillion (+11% YoY) and VND 977 billion (+20% YoY), respectively. Electricity and water distribution to industrial parks continued to be the primary revenue-generating segment for SIP, contributing revenue and gross profit of VND 5.2 trillion (+8% YoY) and VND 440 billion (+14% YoY), respectively. Revenue from land and infrastructure leasing in industrial parks posted solid performance, reaching VND 311 billion (+11% YoY).
- On the sales front, management expects to achieve the land-leasing target outlined at the Annual General Meeting (47 hectares). Deferred long-term revenue as of the end of Q3/2025 increased modestly to VND 12,800 billion (up VND 1,000 billion from the beginning of 2025), driven by new lease contracts signed in late 2024.
DGW – Accelerating “Old Bamboo, New Shoots” Momentum in 2026
08-12-2025
: DGW
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- DGW’s Q3-2025 results exceeded our expectations, with net revenue of VND 7,391 bn (+18.7% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 169 bn (+39.2% YoY), supported by a one-off income gain of VND 18 bn and strong growth across multiple segments, especially Laptops & Tablets (+30.4% YoY), Office Equipment – mainly IoT devices & AI servers (+42.7% YoY), as well as Home Appliances (+94.1% YoY).
- Backed by positive momentum across all business lines and a shift in valuation basis to 2026 from now, we raise DGW’s target price to VND 51,000 per share, using a blended approach of long-term DCF and short-term PE at a 40:60 weight. We reiterate a BUY recommendation on DGW.
VIB - 2025F PBT forecast to grow 8% amid limit credit growth and narrowing NIM
05-12-2025
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: VIB
PBT for Q3/25 reached over VND 2 trillion, showing a 2% YoY growth but underperforming compared to Q2/25 (-22% QoQ), mainly due to: (1) a 55% QoQ decrease in non-interest income (including FX trading, securities investment, and NPL recovery), and (2) a sharp 82% QoQ increase in provision expenses. The cumulative PBT for the nine-month period recorded over VND 7 trillion (+7% YoY), achieving 64% of the full-year target. In Q3/25, the Super-High-Yield Account product no longer performed as effectively as in the previous quarter, resulting in a significant decline in the CASA ratio, alongside rising funding costs due to increased reliance on customer deposit funding. A positive note is the improving asset quality, with a reduction in net NPL formation and an enhanced NPL coverage ratio due to the bank's increased provision expenses.
We revise down our 2025F PBT forecast for VIB by 8% (2025F PBT of VND 9.8 trillion, +9% YoY). Credit growth is expected to be constrained by the current credit quota (around 18%). In addition, NIM is revised down by 20 bps from our previous forecast to 3.1%, resulting in 2025F net interest income reaching only around VND 16.3 trillion (-3% YoY). However, credit costs are projected to be lower, down 10% from our previous estimate, thanks to the improving asset quality trend.
9M2025 Net Interest Income / Total Operating Income / Provision Expenses / PBT have achieved 73% / 72% / 71% / 72% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation with a target price of VND 21,500 per share (2026F P/B of 1.3x), equivalent to a 19% expected return (including VND 700 cash dividend) based on the closing price as of 05/12/2025.
2026 opens a breakthrough period for TAL
04-12-2025
: VDS
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: TAL
- Business results in 9M2025 maintained positive growth, with revenue reaching VND 2,171 billion (+74% YoY) and PAT reaching VND 267 billion (+45% YoY), thanks to simultaneous recordings from real estate projects being handed over and land leasing segments in Dong Van III Industrial Park.
- TAL expects business results for the whole year of 2025 to be positive, with revenue of about VND 3,800 billion (+125% YoY) thanks to the continued handover of projects No. 4 Thanh Hoa, Nam Thai and recorded an additional VND 1,119 billion from the transfer of infrastructure of Dong Van III Industrial Park. Profit after tax is expected to reach about VND 615 billion, profit margin is improved thanks to the large contribution of the industrial park segment.
- Strong growth prospects from 2026 with expected revenue of about VND 12,000 billion and profit after profit of about VND 3,000 billion, thanks to the recording of a series of large projects such as Long Bien Central, Dong Van III Industrial Park, Central Riverside, Nghi Son Central Park and Ha Nam 115-hectare urban area.
Vietnam’s domestic gas supply outlook and LNG’s increasing contribution to energy security
03-12-2025
: GAS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: GAS LNG Dry gas
- We observe that Vietnam’s gas demand is rising sharply, primarily driven by the power sector, which accounts for 70% of total gas consumption. According to Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), gas-fired power capacity is expected to reach 37,454 MW by 2030 - 4.3 times higher than at end-2024. Accordingly, we believe nationwide gas demand will grow in tandem, reflecting ongoing industrialization and the need to enhance grid stability.
- Alongside strong demand growth, domestic gas supply in Vietnam is declining as the country’s core gas fields mature and natural reserves deplete. Major basins such as Nam Con Son, Cuu Long, and PM3–CAA have all shown falling output. For the 2026–2030 period, we expect additional contributions from new projects including Block B – O Mon, Su Tu Trang 2B, and Ca Voi Xanh, which together could add 13–15 bcm/year.
- Furthermore, given declining domestic supply and the fact that new gas projects will take time to come online, we believe LNG will remain an essential supply source both in the near term and long term. LNG demand in 2030 is projected at 10–13 million tonnes per year, sufficient to offset most of the domestic shortfall.
HPA – IPO Roadshow – Attractive investment opportunities
02-12-2025
: VDS
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hien Le
Tags:
- In January 2026, HPA plans to list on the HOSE with an offering price of 41,900 VND/share with a total offering of 30 million shares. The offering price is equivalent to the P/E forward 2025 after issuance at 8.0x at NPAT-MI of VND 1,500 billion. In addition, the company maintains its commitment to maintain a minimum cash dividend of 3,000 VND/share/year, equivalent to a dividend yield of about 7-8%.
- The company expects profit after tax to increase from VND 1,500 billion (2025) to VND 1,750 billion (2030) based on expanding pig capacity to 900,000 pig/year, feed to 1,000,000 tons/year and cows to 73,000 cows/year.
- Compared to small businesses, HPA has the advantage of feed autonomy, closed processes, and imported breeds. However, compared to major competitors in the industry such as C.P, BAF or DBC, we found that HPA does not have too many competitive advantages in terms of breeds and technology. Instead, the business has taken advantage of the shortage of breeding pigs due to the epidemic to increase the ratio of breeding pigs to total commercial pigs to help the business maintain a high gross margin when the total commercial pigs of the enterprise is lower than that of major competitors.
- The ratio of commercial breeding pigs/total commercial pig herd will increase from 19% in 2023 to 40% in 9 months of 2025 compared to this rate of DBC of about 6.9% in 2025 and BAF of about 13% in 2023 due to the higher number of commercial pigs of BAF and DBC.
- In the long term, the expansion of the farming area will lead to a gradual decrease in gross margin when the cost of the farming area is high (3 times higher than in the past) as well as the ratio of breeding pigs/commercial pigs gradually decreases. Therefore, we expect gross margin to gradually decrease in the long term and approach that of leading enterprises, but EBIT still grows thanks to output.
- HPA's investment risks are mainly focused on the decline in the price of live hogs in the whole industry and the increase in feed costs due to the increase in soybean prices. In addition, the gradual decrease of small households will affect the sale of breeding pigs of enterprises. However, we realize that HPA will have the right strategies to develop, for example, encroaching into the Food segment if the sale of breeding pigs is no longer favorable.
