08-07-2026 Draft decree amending and supplementing Decree No. 24/2012/ND-CP: Moving to scrap gold jewelry license
04-06-2026
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Lan Anh Tran
Tags: Draft decree Decree No. 24/2012/ND-CP
- On May 29, 2026, the Government issued a draft decree amending and supplementing several provisions of Decree No. 24/2012/ND-CP on the gold management. We note that several provisions in this draft also amend and supplement Decree No. 232/2025/ND-CP, the most notable of which is that the production and business of gold jewelry and handicraft products will no longer be considered a conditional investment and business line.
- For the import and export of raw gold materials, as well as the production and trading of gold bars, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will continue to exercise strict control, maintaining both pre- and post-inspection mechanisms. For gold jewelry and handicraft production and business, the SBV will no longer conduct pre-inspection or inspection as previously required. Instead, it will shift to post-inspection through interconnected data and enterprise production reports submitted to the SBV.
- Overall, the draft is expected to contribute to promoting the transparency and standardization of the domestic gold market. The proposal are generally consistent with the Government’s orientation to develop the gold market under a state-managed market mechanism. At the same time, they will lay the foundation for Vietnam to gradually develop its gold jewelry and handicraft manufacturing industry, aiming to become a regional center for jewelry production and craftsmanship.
NKG – Q1/2026 Results Under Pressure; Breakthrough Anticipated in Q2
03-06-2026
: NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- In Q1/2026, NKG recorded parent company net revenue of VND 3,261 billion (-20% YoY) and net profit after tax of VND 22 billion (-65% YoY). Business results continued to face heavy pressure, with the gross profit margin remaining low at 2.6% due to stagnant steel selling prices and the fact that the company has not yet reversed its inventory provisions.
- Business activities are expected to recover more clearly in the second half of 2026, driven by the momentum of rising steel prices that began at the end of March. On the financial side, NKG is actively tightening its excess inventory (down to VND 4,344 billion, -18% QoQ) to reduce short-term interest pressure, thereby creating borrowing capacity to mobilize long-term capital for the Phu My factory project.
DGW – Growth drivers remain intact
02-06-2026
: DGW
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- DGW’s Q1-2026 results significantly exceeded our expectations by 33%, with net revenue reaching VND 8,500 bn (+54.0% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 200 bn (+89.0% YoY). The strong performance was primarily driven by the robust breakout in the laptop & tablet segment (+101.5% YoY) and the server segment (+157.4% YoY), alongside improved profit margin resulting from no additional provisions for securities investments and the absence of one-off financial expenses of approximately VND 76 bn recorded in the same period last year.
- We are currently reviewing our projections for DGW’s net profit and target price, taking into consideration potential provisions for securities investments, the business outlook for segments heavily impacted by the rising RAM and chip prices (such as laptops, tablets, and servers), as well as a less favorable valuation environment including higher risk-free rates, beta assumptions in our long-term DCF model, and the reassessment of the 2026F target PE multiple following the anticipated IPO of DMX.
- Overall, DGW’s share price has de-rated by 25% over the past three months, currently trading at a trailing PE of 14.1x and a forward PE of 13.1x (based on the Company’s plan for the first half of 2026). This implies that the current valuation appears attractive relative to the expected earnings growth (average 25.0% YoY for 2025–2027 under our current forecasts).
KBC – Drivers from industrial park land leasing activities
01-06-2026
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- For Q1/2026, KBC recorded revenue and gross profit of VND 1.34 trillion (-57% YoY) and VND 649 billion (-46% YoY), respectively. Industrial park land and infrastructure leasing generated VND 732 billion (-71% YoY), with the company recognizing a leased area of ~15 hectares (-82% YoY) from the Nam Son Hap Linh IP and Que Vo 2 Extended IP at an estimated rental rate of USD 190/sqm/lease term.
- At the 2026 Annual General Meeting, the company set growth-oriented targets for the year, guiding revenue and NPAT at VND 10 trillion (+50% YoY) and VND 3 trillion (+35% YoY), respectively. The IP land leasing segment is expected to drive these strong results, with a target handover of 250 hectares (+106% YoY). The most notable anchor contract involves 92 hectares at the Que Vo 2 Extended IP, leased to Luxshare ICT—a strategic supply chain partner for Apple.
- We maintain our target price of VND 41,600 per share for KBC, corresponding to a BUY recommendation and an expected return of 36%. The stock remains one of our top picks within the industrial park sector for 2026.
If Middle East tensions ease: How will oil prices and energy logistics respond?
29-05-2026
: PVT, PVP, PDV, GSP, PLX, OIL, PVS, PVD, BSR
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- The USD 100 per barrel level for Brent crude remains a key threshold, as prices tend to react strongly to developments in the Middle East. Bloomberg forecasts suggest that oil prices could gradually ease in the second half of 2026, implying that current geopolitical tensions are likely to have a temporary impact rather than causing a prolonged supply crisis.
- However, energy shipping markets may take longer to return to normal. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have not fully recovered, while war-risk insurance costs and vessel rerouting remain elevated. As a result, freight rates are likely to stay high even if oil prices begin to decline.
- In this environment, oil and gas transportation companies are expected to benefit the most from elevated freight rates. Meanwhile, downstream companies may face pressure from higher logistics costs and delays in passing these costs on to customers.
PHR – Breakthrough in profits from compensation
28-05-2026
: PHR
: Industrial Land RE, Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: PHR
- NPAT-MI in Q1/2026 grew strongly (+192% YoY) thanks to a sudden increase in other income (VND 232.3 billion), coming from compensation and support of key projects, including Thaco (VND 135.8 billion) and VSIP III (VND 95 billion).
- The progress of compensation collection in 2026 is expected to record very positive signals: 1/1,050 billion VND in May 2026 from the VSIP III project; 2/ Thaco project is expected to continue to contribute about VND 500 billion in income to PHR right in 2026.
- PHR is preparing to issue bonus shares at a ratio of 10:8 to raise charter capital to VND 2,438 billion, strengthening financial capacity for the long-term strategy. The business is drastically expanding into potential segments, including renewable energy (planning 12 projects), high-tech agriculture (1,300 hectares of bananas), and restructuring the wood processing segment.
Seaports – Container throughput maintains double-digit growth momentum in 4M2026
27-05-2026
: GMD, VSC, HAH
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports
- In 4M2026, Vietnam's seaborne container import and export value reached USD 90 billion (+16% YoY) and USD 65 billion (+20% YoY), respectively. The FDI sector played a crucial role, with seaborne container export and import values recording USD 121 billion (+36% YoY) and USD 86 billion (+47% YoY), respectively.
- In 4M2026, container throughput through the Hai Phong and Cai Mep – Thi Vai regions recorded 2.8 million TEUs (+13% YoY) and 2.6 million TEUs (+11% YoY), respectively, lower than the growth rate of import-export turnover because high-tech goods have high value but do not contribute proportionally to container throughput. In Hai Phong, PHP continued to lead in market share thanks to putting HTIT (LH berths 3–4) into operation from 2H2025 and benefiting from MSC's trend of shifting volume from Nam Dinh Vu to HTIT. In the Cai Mep – Thi Vai region, overall regional growth slowed down as many ports exceeded their designed capacity, Gemalink and SSIT still recorded positive growth thanks to the low base of the SPLY.
GEG – Business results Q1/2026: Hydropower segment supports core revenue expansion
26-05-2026
: GEG
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q1/2026, GEG recorded revenue of VND 767 billion (down 31% YoY and up 30% QoQ), profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) decreased by 45% YoY (+148% QoQ). The YoY decrease is due to the company no longer recording one-time income at the Tan Phu Dong 1 factory. Removing this revenue, the company's revenue is estimated to increase by 7% YoY.
- Power generation increased by 10% YoY, thanks to (1) a 59% improvement in hydropower production due to prolonged La Niña phase hydrological conditions in Q1/2026, and (2) an 11% YoY increase in solar power generation due to thermal radiation levels at plants showing signs of improvement.
- In 2026, revenue and NPAT-MI could reach VND 2,839 billion (-5% YoY) and VND 392 billion (-44% YoY), respectively, equivalent to EPS of VND 1,093 (-44% YoY). Currently, GEG stock is trading at a P/E of 11x and an EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, which is lower than the 5-year average (18.4x and 9.3x). We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of VND20,400/share.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in the current context? and will interest rate levels in Vietnam cool down in the near future?
26-05-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Khoa Bùi
Tags:
- Kevin Warsh, the new FED Chair, dislikes the Basel standards imposed on the banking system, dislikes quantitative easing (QE) or quantitative tightening (QT), dislikes policy guidance through media (forward guidance). He is generally very different from his predecessors. So, what is the new FED Chair's core policy stance? It may be endogenous easing combined with an appropriate policy interest rate level.
- In general, Warsh's policy is much "quieter" than Powell's, with less market intervention through speeches, and measures that are much more technical in nature. Therefore, we should observe and wait for further signals from the FED (especially by closely monitoring its balance sheet, such as the expansion rate, reserve balance, and the overnight index swap (OIS) rate, rather than focusing solely on the Fed’s dot plot or the FedWatch Tool).
- The probability of the FED raising interest rates in meetings between now and the end of the year is low due to: the constraint of supporting the U.S. Treasury (UST) bond market, cost-push inflation caused by the prolonged Iran conflict (raising interest rates for this type of inflation is ineffective), and the fact that raising rates would strengthens the USD, forcing the Japanese Ministry of Finance (the world's largest holder of USTs) to intervene in the Yen by selling USTs and buying JPY, which would cause UST yields to rise—conflicting with the goal of supporting UST yield stability.
- Regarding domestic interest rate levels (especially for long-term tenors), they will remain under pressure despite positive signals such as the inclusion of term Treasury deposits in the LDR ratio (20%) to reduce liquidity pressure. Perhaps the regulator needs to consider using stronger system support tools such as refinancing. Additionally, the exchange rate variable needs to be monitored closely in the coming time.
Q1-2026 Banking Sector Earnings Update: Profit Growth Momentum Sustained, Liquidity Pressure Unlikely To End Soon
25-05-2026
: VCB, BID, CTG, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, HDB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Total operating income of listed banks exceeded VND 190,000 billion (+15% YoY and -9% QoQ) and sector pre-tax profit (PBT) in Q1-2026 surpassed VND 94,000 billion (+14% YoY and -3% QoQ), completing approximately 23% of the full-year 2026 PBT plan — on par with the same period last year. We note that excluding the significant and idiosyncratic PBT declines at STB and SSB, full-sector PBT growth reached 22% YoY.
- Key growth drivers for sector revenue and profit included: (1) Credit volume of listed banks approached VND 15 quadrillion, growing 19.2% YoY or 3.5% YTD (vs. system-wide: +18.2% YoY and 3.2% YTD), driving net interest income up 17% YoY; (2) Service fee income surged 43% YoY; (3) Other income grew nearly 40% YoY, including VND 9,500 billion in recoveries of written-off bad debts (+21% YoY); (4) The 12-month rolling CIR declined 180bps YoY to 31.7%.
- Key concerns: (1) Deposit mobilisation remained challenging (listed banks grew 1.7% YTD with sharp divergence amid intense competition), pushing the sector's cost of funds up 55bps YoY and 30bps QoQ to 4.2%; we see no near-term signal of easing liquidity stress; (2) Net NPL formation rebounded sharply in Q1 (nearly VND 43,000 billion — roughly 3x Q1-2025), driven partly by seasonal factors, pushing the NPL ratio to nearly 2.0% (+13bps QoQ) and indirectly compressing NIM (-15bps QoQ to 2.90%) through interest income reversals.
- System-wide liquidity pressure and the rising interest rate trend are expected to persist, as underlying fundamentals show no clear sign of improvement. As of end-April 2026, deposit growth was only 2.2% YTD while credit growth had already reached 4.4% YTD (commercial banks are no longer subject to credit growth caps from Q2-2026), indicating the deposit-credit gap continues to widen. Additionally, the cumulative budget surplus through April 2026 climbed to VND 445,000 billion — reflecting continued underperformance in public investment disbursement versus plan, meaning large amounts of money have yet to re-circulate into the market. We expect liquidity pressure may ease significantly in H2-2026 if public investment disbursement accelerates materially enough to shift the budget to a deficit — this will be the most important signal to monitor when assessing when bank funding cost pressure begins to subside.
- The sharp rebound in net NPL formation in Q1-2026 may not fully reflect system-wide asset quality deterioration, as it is concentrated in a small number of banks. The Q1 seasonal uptick in NPLs is also influenced by liquidity disruptions at enterprises after the Lunar New Year holiday, along with the lagged effects of Q4 bad debt reporting behavior. That said, net NPL formation trends still need to be monitored in Q2-2026, given risks to borrower repayment capacity from the sharp rise in interest rates and the indirect impact of the prolonged Middle East conflict on input costs and inflation.
VHC – US Market Drives Strong Q1/2026 Recovery
22-05-2026
: VHC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags: VHC
- In Q1/2026, net revenue and NPAT-MI grew by 12% YoY and 37.8% YoY, respectively, driven by strong performance in value-added products (+63% YoY). Specifically, revenue from frozen fillet increased 14% YoY, by-products rose 17%, C&G grew 21%, and Sa Giang rose 16% YoY. By market, the US remained the key growth driver with revenue surging 40% YoY, while the EU increased 6% YoY and China declined slightly by 3% YoY.
- Gross margin improved to 14.6% (from 12.7% in the same period last year), supported by a 9% YoY increase in average selling prices, which outpaced the 4% YoY rise in raw material costs. The SG&A-to-revenue ratio remained stable at 5%. As a result, the net profit margin expanded to 9% (from 7% YoY).
- For the full year 2026, we forecast net revenue of VND 12,507 billion (+4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,526 billion (+8% YoY), implying an EPS of VND 6,798 . We maintain our target price of VND 73,300/share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation on VHC.
Corporate Bond Market: Maturity pressure remains high in an environment of pegged interest rates
22-05-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Khoa Bùi
Tags:
- A key highlight this quarter is the rise of non-bank enterprises. This group led the issuance value, contributing 70.4% of the total value (with the real estate sector in the lead). Conversely, the banking sector, traditionally the primary issuer in the market, contributed only 29.6% of the value in Q1/2026.
- In the secondary market, the average yield to maturity (YTM) of bonds also recorded corresponding movements, reflecting investors' expectations regarding interest rates and the necessary risk premium amidst liquidity pressure on near-term maturities. Fluctuating interest rates have significantly impacted the corporate bond market, evidenced by increases in both issuance rates and yield to maturity (YTM). In Q1 2026, issuers had to accept higher issuance rates when issuing bonds, reflecting increased capital costs in unfavorable market conditions.
- Maturity pressure in the coming quarters is substantial, with $42.2 trillion in Q2/2026 and $73.3 trillion in Q3/2026, concentrated in the real estate sector. This requires issuers to proactively balance cash flows or negotiate with bondholders to address debt obligations in the near future.
- The Ministry of Finance has sought feedback on the Draft Decree on private placement of bonds, which will replace Decree 153/2020. In the future, the new policy framework clearly distinguishes between the two issuance methods (public and private), which is expected to promote the public channel as a more primary and sustainable capital mobilization channel. Under this orientation, individual investors are encouraged to participate primarily in the public issuance channel, which has stricter requirements regarding credit ratings and investor protection mechanisms. Meanwhile the private placement channel will continue to be reserved for professional investors under the principle of self-responsibility
04-06-2026
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