CIRCULAR 25/2026/TT-NHNN: Not enough to resolve the liquidity bottleneck

Circular 25/2026/TT-NHNN, amending Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN, takes effect on 1 July 2026. It was issued against a backdrop in which the high growth target requires the financial system to expand its capacity to provide medium- and long-term funding to the economy. The thrust of the policy lies not in a broad-based loosening of credit, but in adjusting the constraints on maturity structure and liquidity within commercial banks' balance sheets.

• The most important change is raising the cap on the ratio of short-term funding used for medium- and long-term lending (SMLR) from 30% to 40%. This gives banks more room to use short-term funding sources to finance medium- and long-term loans, thereby supporting sectors with long investment cycles such as infrastructure, processing and manufacturing, and real estate.
• It adds a special case whereby the increased proportion of term deposits of the State Treasury (KBNN) placed at commercial banks may be counted in the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) formula above the prescribed maximum level (20%). Technically, this partially eases LDR-compliance pressure for banks that receive State Treasury deposits, particularly the state-owned bank group.
• From a macro perspective, the policy reflects a deliberate coordination between expansionary fiscal policy and targeted monetary easing: fiscal policy generates capital demand through public investment and key projects, while monetary policy adjusts maturity constraints to enhance the economy's capacity to absorb capital. However, relaxing the SMLR only opens up additional room on the funding-maturity side; it does not directly create new mobilized funding. Therefore, the policy's transmission effectiveness will depend largely on the ability to improve deposit mobilization in the economy (Market 1), the LDR position of each individual bank, and the stability of system-wide liquidity.

PHR – Q2/2026 profit expected to grow strongly from compensation payments

• We project rubber segment net revenue in Q2/2026 to reach 292 billion VND (-35% YoY), as this is the off-peak season for latex harvesting; however, we expect the average selling price to remain high, reaching approximately 51.2 million VND/ton.
• Although core operations are declining, we believe the company's overall profit will grow thanks to net other income of 1,650 billion VND during the period, coming from VSIP III and Bac Tan Uyen 1 (Thaco).
• We project PHR's NPAT-MI in Q2/2026 to reach 1,345 billion VND, equivalent to +3.8x QoQ and +13.9x YoY.

EVN's 2025 business results update: Gross margin widens thanks to a sharp decrease in electricity purchase costs

• System-wide electricity consumption increased by 4.6% yoy, helping Vietnam Electricity's revenue increase by 11.2% yoy, and the Group's profit after tax improved by 529% yoy. The Group no longer bears accumulated losses, moving back to record undistributed profits. 
• Gross profit margin improved by 6.4 percentage points compared to the plan, to 14.9%, thanks to (1) the average retail price being raised to 2,204 VND/kWh from May 2025, and (2) the average cost of purchasing electricity decreased by 17% compared to the plan when the ability to mobilize hydropower increased and the price of coal and gas fuel both decreased.
• Profits recorded in the year are put into short-term investment accounts in the form of bank deposits, to ensure the ability to pay fuel costs and construction costs of key projects of the power sector. 

Raw material costs in H1-2026: Sharp fluctuations in the foundation and infrastructure groups

• Market Dynamics: Infrastructure material costs surged in H1-2026, driven by accelerated public investment, domestic mine scarcities, and elevated energy prices. The trend was led by sand and construction stone (up 15–60% YTD), while steel and cement recorded modest gains of 5–10% YTD. Looking ahead, this upward pressure is expected to ease, capped by government supply-stabilization policies and a cooling oil market.
• Corporate Impact: Leading material manufacturers stand to benefit from the ability to increase selling prices and expand profit margins. In contrast, contractors (especially in infrastructure and transportation) and real estate developers face high risks, as escalating costs directly slow down project progress and erode margins on fixed-price contracts.
  

PVS – Key highlights from the 2026 Annual General Meeting

• For 2026, PVS has set a conservative business plan, targeting consolidated revenue of VND 33.0 tn (+1% YoY) and consolidated NPAT of VND 990 bn (-45% YoY). Based on management's preliminary update, 1H2026 results remain on track, achieving 48% of the full-year revenue target and 63% of the profit target. 
• Progress at major M&C projects remains a key highlight. Projects such as Block B – O Mon, Golden Camel, Baltica Phase 2, and FengMiao are progressing according to schedule, supporting revenue recognition throughout 2026. 
• During 2026–2030, PVS plans to implement an investment program of approximately VND 32 tn, while expanding into new growth areas including LNG, gas-fired power, nuclear power, offshore wind, and energy infrastructure, laying the foundation for its next long-term growth cycle. 
• We maintain our FY2026 forecast of VND 39.454 tn in revenue (+21% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 2.330 tn (+28% YoY; approximately +20% YoY excluding provision reversals). Using a 50:50 weighting between the DCF and EV/EBITDA valuation methods, we derive a target price of VND 48,700/share, implying an upside of approximately 25% from the closing price on June 18, 2026. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on PVS. 

Vietnam’s sugar industry & Update on the extension of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties

• Vietnam’s sugar industry is entering a slower growth phase amid intensifying competition. Although domestic sugar consumption continues to expand and local production only meets around 50% of demand, the market remains oversupplied due to imported sugar, smuggled sugar, and the increasing adoption of High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS). As a result, domestic sugar prices have been on a downward trend since 2H2023. Over the medium term, sugar smuggling and HFCS are expected to remain the two key challenges facing the industry.
• The anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) measures imposed on Thai sugar since June 2021 have delivered benefits to Vietnam’s sugar sector. These measures have helped curb the inflow of low-priced Thai sugar, supported the recovery of domestic production, facilitated the restoration of sugarcane cultivation areas, and improved sugarcane productivity. As a result, the industry has strengthened its competitiveness following a prolonged period of decline.
• The final review conducted in 2025 concluded that the risks of dumping and subsidization by Thai sugar producers would likely re-emerge if the trade remedy measures were removed. Consequently, the Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) decided to extend the AD and CVD measures for another five years, through June 2031. The extension is expected to provide continued protection for the domestic sugar industry, supporting production stability and long-term investment in sugarcane cultivation areas.

TCH - Revenue growth driven by project handovers

• During FY2025 (Apr 1, 2025 – Mar 31, 2026), capitalizing on the recovery of the real estate market (where primary selling prices recorded a growth of 20-30% YoY) and surging investor attention toward Thuy Nguyen City (which benefits from the integration of Hai Phong and Hai Duong, alongside the relocation of the entire administrative center to this area), the company aggressively launched synchronized sales campaigns for these two projects. This yielded highly positive results, with presales value reaching approximately VND 9,000 billion (accounting for around 35% of the total absorbed low-rise inventory). Consequently, real estate revenue for FY2026 is projected to reach VND 7,700 billion (+1,600% YoY), laying the groundwork for NPAT-MI to post robust performance and hit VND 2,374 billion (+1,100% YoY).
• The structural shift in the residential real estate market will move in tandem with the development of Hai Phong’s urban space and transport infrastructure. Investment capital and organic demand are structurally concentrated in the historical urban core or areas directly enjoying a windfall from new connectivity infrastructure projects. Under the Hai Phong Master Plan for the 2030–2040 period, expanding from the existing urban core, the development space will be strategically extended toward the East and North of the Cam River. Riding this trend, TCH stands out as a pioneer in capturing the land bank and developing urban townships in the Thuy Nguyen area.
• We maintain our 1-year target price for TCH at VND 21,700 per share, representing a 42% upside potential, and reiterate our BUY recommendation for the company.
  

VNM – Finding opportunity in adversity

• VNM’s Q1-2026 results significantly exceeded our expectation by 16%, with net revenue reaching VND 16,149 bn (+24.8% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 2,429 bn (+54.8% YoY). The strong performance was supported by a low base in the domestic market due to ongoing channel restructuring last year, combined with impressive export growth despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This was achieved through a “finding opportunity in adversity” strategy by securing alternative shipping routes. Favorable raw milk powder prices were another key supporting factor.
• VNM currently appears attractive, trading at a trailing and forward 2026F P/E of 11.9x — significantly below the historical average of 16.0x during 2021–25 when the company entered a lower growth phase (CAGR of 1.1% vs. 7.2% in 2016–20). The stock also offers a solid dividend yield of 7.4% (cash dividend of VND 4,350 per share).
• We are currently in the process of reviewing our target price and earnings forecasts for VNM. While the company has successfully navigated the Middle East situation, the short-term valuation environment (2026 P/E) is less favorable than initially anticipated amid continued foreign outflows.

Stabilizing the exchange rate and banking system liquidity

• Over the first 5 months of 2026, trade deficit has become a notable phenomenon in the economy, raising concerns about its negative impact on the exchange rate. However, trade data such as trade surplus or deficit does not accurately reflect exchange rate pressure (at least in the short term). The reason is that explaining the exchange rate requires looking at actual foreign currency supply-demand flows, whereas trade data only records the value of goods at the time they cross the border, which does not mean that the foreign currency payment flow occurs at that exact moment.
• The interest rate differential between VND and USD (USD/VND swap) maintained at high levels contributes significantly to stabilizing the exchange rate in the context of the Fed maintaining its policy rate at a relatively high level of 3.5%–3.75%. However, this is also one of the reasons why domestic interest rates are finding it difficult to cool down.
• Factors expected to support banking system liquidity in the coming time include: First, the tax policy for business households is being adjusted. However, this process will take place gradually and is unlikely to create a sudden improvement in the short term. Second, export revenues. Third, FDI inflows. When VND deposit interest rates are at 8%–9%, significantly higher than the Fed's base rate (at 3.5%–3.75%), FDI enterprises may have more incentive to restructure their capital, convert a portion of USD to VND, and deposit it in the domestic market. Fourth, public investment disbursement. Note that these supporting factors still need time to spread and verify their actual effectiveness. The key factor governing system liquidity and interest rate levels in the coming time remains the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) monetary policy direction, with priority given to exchange rate stability.
• The system has entered a phase of higher funding costs due to structural imbalances in capital sources. Therefore, in the event that structural balance issues are not improved, system liquidity will only cool down technically in individual trading sessions through OMO regulation.

HAH – Long-term vessel chartering is the foundation for strong NPAT growth in Q1-FY26

• In Q1-FY26, HAH's revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 1,265 billion (+8% YoY) and VND 300 billion (+29% YoY), respectively, in line with our projections. Specifically, stevedoring and vessel fleet revenue were estimated at VND 591 billion (-5% YoY) and VND 1,084 billion (+13% YoY), respectively.
• For 2026, HAH's revenue and NPAT-MI are projected to reach VND 5,472 billion (+7% YoY) and VND 1,291 billion (+7% YoY), respectively. This aligns with the Company's 2026 plan, given that charter contracts have been signed long-term and renewal rates have not increased significantly compared to previous contracts. The 2026 EPS is projected to reach 6,305 VND.
• As the Company is currently expanding its fleet and cannot yet contribute to the 2026 business results, we recommend ACCUMULATE with a target price of 62,700 VND/share. 

OCB – Q2/26 Earnings forecast: Strong credit growth but NIM remains under pressure

• Q1/26 PBT reached over VND 1.2 trillion (-23% QoQ, +37% YoY), completing 17% of the full-year plan (VND 7 trillion). PBT growth was positive based on the low base of the same period in 2025, thanks to (1) 2.6% YTD credit growth (+14.2% YoY), driving net interest income up 10% YoY, and (2) non-interest income expanding by 209% YoY.
• Q2/26 PBT is forecast to reach over VND 1.3 trillion (+10% QoQ, +35% YoY), completing 39% of the full-year projection (2026F: VND 6.5 trillion, +30% YoY), with positive growth compare to Q2/25 (+35% YoY) thanks to (1) net interest income rising strongly by 14% YoY based on robust credit growth of 10.0% YTD (equivalent to +15.6% YoY) and (2) non-interest income expanding to nearly VND 640 billion (+88% QoQ, +38% YoY), supported by positive growth in the corporate advisory segment, particularly bond underwriting advisory activities.
• The current target price for OCB stock is VND 13,300/share, equivalent to an ACCUMULATE recommendation with a return of 6% compared to the closing price of VND 12,550/share on Jun 11, 2026. 

Rubber industry – Tight supply and long-term growth drivers from the electric vehicle era

• Global natural rubber supply in 2026 is expected to continue to face shortages and maintain a net deficit for the sixth consecutive year. This tightening is due to the shrinking of new planting areas since 2018, combined with the trend of declining production in major producing countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia.
• The wave of shifting to electric and hybrid vehicles is becoming a lifeline to guarantee the long-term needs of the rubber industry. Since electric vehicles have a heavy payload that causes tires to wear out 20% to 30% faster, periodic tire replacement pressure will keep the demand for rubber expected to be stable for the next 3 to 5 years.
• Natural rubber prices in 2026 are expected to remain anchored at a high level, due to the tight supply and demand structure and the disruption of the downstream petrochemical chain from the US-Iran conflict.