17-04-2026VNINDEX1817.17-2.66-0.15% HNXIndex2603.511.37% UPCOM128.370.150.12% VN301988.118.920.45% VN1001907.34-0.74-0.04% HNX30546.57-1.71-0.31% VNXALL2968.74-1.16-0.04% VNX503330.930.390.01% VNMID2235.94-2.50-0.11% VNSML1417.220.950.07% Oil and Gas sector – High oil price support E&P activites
19-09-2023
: PVD, PVS, PVT
: Oil & Gas
: Ngan Le
Tags: Oil price Russia Saudi Arabia
- The extension of Saudi Arabia’s output cut of 1.0 mbpd, along with Russia’s extension of its 300,000 barrels/day of export cut through year-end supports the price of Brent crude.
- In 3Q23, OPEC has pumped an average of 27.4 mbpd (31% of global supply), 1.8 mn less than it believes consumers needs.
- The average price of Brent oil forecast in 4Q23 will be from USD 83 – 93/barrel, higher than the 9M23 average of USD 81/barrel.
- With pressure to increase oil and gas production output, we believe that PVN will try to push key projects into operation soon, boosting the business results of some upstream Vietnamese companies.
VIB – Current Macro Landscape Poses Challenges To 2023 Profit Growth Prospects
18-09-2023
: VIB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags: 2023 outlook Business Update Banking Industry
- Although credit growth improved slightly to 3% from 0.8% at the end of Q2/23, the gap with the granted credit growth quota (14.25%) remains large.
- NIM may decline slightly in 2H/2023 to selectively boost credit growth causing NII growth to decelerate.
- Credit risk provisions and provision processing are expected to remain high in the second half of the year to ensure asset quality and bring the NPL ratio down to 2%.
- Given decelerating NII growth and a sharp increase in credit risk provision, the ability to complete the 2023 PBT plan is relatively challenging and will depend more on NFI growth, CIR optimization and recognizing bad debts recoveries income.
Update on trade in August 2023
15-09-2023
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags: Trade
- Exports continue to recover, we expect a modest positive growth in Q4/2023.
- Exports to the US market improved.
- Deepening Vietnam - US economic links in dependence on trade activities with China.
Seaport – Draft amendment to Circular 54/2018/TT-BGTVT on changing container handling service charges
14-09-2023
: GMD, SGP, PHP
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- Vietnam Maritime Administration (VMA) sent a draft to the Ministry of Transport on the amendment of Circular 54/2018/TT-BGTVT for the second time, in which the important content refers to the adjustment of container handling service charge. In particular, Hai Phong, the South region and deep-water ports will be increased by 10% compared to the present. In addition, deep-water ports can apply 110% of the new price because these are key national projects.
- We expect that the draft will be adopted soonbecause higher service charges will bring more income to the state budget but still ensure competitiveness as the current price is much lower than other countries in Asia.
- If the draft is adopted, the policy will promote rapid growth for the whole seaport industry as the profit margins expand. In particular, GMD, SGP, and PHP are listed companies that greatly benefit from the deep-water port.
Chinese property market – Change the approach to increase housing sentiment.
13-09-2023
: KDH, NLG, HDG
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do
Tags: NLG KDH HDG
- Real estate plays a fundamental role in China’s economy, accounting for 30% of GDP considering sectors both upstream and downstream, and real estate speculation has risen tremendously. As prices continue to rise rapidly, investment and speculation have become a way for common people to accumulate large amounts of wealth. To prevent house prices from continuing to rise, regulators introduced the “houses are for living in, not speculation” policy, with the aim to prevent the speculative behavior. The government has issued strict rules for buyers to purchase a second-home, or even tough terms for first-home mortgages. In terms of real estate developers, they have been prevented from using financial leverage to hoard land by the “Three Red Lines” regulatory requirements.
- With the economy in difficulty that lowered customer’s income, the China property market has faced a tough period since 2021. Since the beginning of 2022, the real estate giant Evergrande has repeatedly reported failed overdue coupon payments; and when the company first announced it was facing unprecedented difficulties, the Chinese government had to move in to control the spillover effects. For another developer giant – Country Garden – the high land-bank exposure to low-tier cites (where new-home sales declined the most) is the main reason for its overdue coupon payments failure in August 2023.
- As the negative effects of strict regulations on the property market – the economy’s main asset – while other industries have not recovered, the Chinese government has changed its policies to support the market and increase liquidity. The support package focuses on demand-side, which still follows the rules “houses are for living in, not speculation”. Tier-I cities have recorded a recovery in demand, and policymakers have ample room to loosen first-home purchase policies in those cities. Developers who recorded positive sale growth (Yuexiu, COLI) also have high exposure on tier-I and strong tier-II cities.
- For the Vietnamese market, we see some similarities. However, the Vietnamese government has packages to support both buyers and developers, with: 1/Reduction in borrowing rates, 2/ Resolving projects’ legal issue, and 3/Infrastructure development. As the result, the Vietnamese market may bottom out sooner (in late 4Q2023, per our expectation); and major cities (Hanoi, Hochiminh city) will recover first, which is similar to the Chinese market.
HND – No tide to lift the boats in the short run
12-09-2023
: HND
: Utilities
: Hoai Trinh
Tags:
- HND recorded 3,528 mn kWh of power generation in 6M/2023 (-10.0% YoY). Meanwhile, net revenue was VND 5,938 bn (+14.4% YoY), owing to a high ASP (due to high input coal costs). Despite the company changing the way it estimates major repair costs (not deducting 50% in advance and has reversed 150.4 bn VND after review), NPAT reached VND 341 bn (-36.5% YoY) primarily due to (1) a shortage of coal in Q1 leading to a decrease in 6M/2023 output and (2) input coal prices remaining at a high level, preventing HND from being profitable in the competitive electricity generation market (CGM) and affecting profit margins in PPA.
- Business prospect will be less favoerable in 2H23. HND stated that the second half of the year's electricity production output will be impacted by (1) the major overhaul of the S1 generator (from September 20 to November 10 - 20 days later than expected) and (2) the minor overhaul of the S3 generator (from August 2 to August 31). Concerning input coal, per HND, the price of mixed input coal has dropped substantially since August 2023. Coal supply and stockpile levels remain stable, allowing for adequate output in the second half of the year. Furthermore, with additional substantial repair expenses recorded in Q4/2023, we expect NPAT to be low in Q3 and a loss in Q4.
- We lower our revenue and NPAT forecasts for 2023, which are estimated to be VND 11,170 bn (+6.3% YoY) and VND 417 bn (-23.8% YoY), respectively, due to power output adjustments and increased major repair expenses. In 2023, the equivalent EPS is 855 VND/share.
- We maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with a one-year target price of VND 15,500/share. With an expected cash dividend of VND 800/share in the next 12 months, the total return is determined at 15% based on the closing price on Sep 12th 2023.
MSN - Profits is forecast to improve since 2H2023
11-09-2023
: MSN, MCH, MSR, MML
: Consumer Staples, Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: An Nguyen
Tags: Result Update Q2 2023
- Q2 2023, MSN illustrated a resilence sales with VND18,609 bn (-0.5% QoQ; +4.3% YoY) despite of challenging business environment. The backbone of the resilence is the healthy performance of the consumer-based businesses. Q2 2023 NPAT-MI dropped to the lowest level in the last twelve quarters with VND105 bn (-51.2% QoQ; -89.3% YoY). The key reason is the surge of non-operating expenses (including interest expenses, tax, and minority interest).
- We calculated that MSN ‘s net profit will improve since 2H2023. The primary catalyst is the decrease of the interest expenses. We forecast the 2023 sales and NPAT-MI to reach VND78,320 bn (+2.8% YoY) and VND1,228 bn (-65.6% YoY), equivalent to 2023 EPS of VND863 (-65.6% YoY). Compared to our previous forecast, we downgraded the NPAT-MI by 10% because MSN reported a higher tax rate and higher minority interest rate in 1H2023.
- Based on SOTP valuation method and our new forecast, our new target price for MSN shares is VND95,700. In the viewpoint that 1) MSN will succeed in exploiting growth oppotunites of the consumer sector in the long-term; and 2) the profit will improve since 2H2023, we have a BUY recommendation on this stock for the long term.
Fertilizer update – Eyes on China!
08-09-2023
: DPM, DCM, BFC
: Fertilizer
: Ngan Le
Tags:
- After China successful closing the India’s urea bid of 1.1 mn tons, it has asked some urea producers to suspend urea exports in September. This move raises a concerns about a shortfall of the domestic supply – as in late 2021.
- Although global urea benchmark currently appear “indifferent” to this event, it is still expected to rise, driven mostly by demand in India and Brazil in the short-term.
- For Vietnamese domestic urea producers, export motivation in 3Q23 is unclear, but domestic producers could still benefit from increased rice cultivation.
KBC – The situation remains favorable
07-09-2023
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Hung Le
Tags:
- In 1H2023, KBC reported revenue of VND 4,551 billion (USD 189.63 million), which was 4.2 times higher than the same period last year and 6% higher than the pre-audit figure. KBC's NPAT for the first half stood at VND 1,921 billion (USD 80.04 million), representing a 16% increase compared to the pre-audit amount and achieving 57% of our full-year forecast.
- KBC's potential handover of 193 hectares in 2023 is expected to contribute VND 8,241 billion (USD 343.38 million) to its total revenue, fulfilling 92% of its guidance. Additionally, NPAT is projected to reach VND 3,344 billion (USD 139.33 million), completing 84% of its guidance for the year.
- Based on the sum of the parts methodology (SOTP), we lifted the target price to VND 40,000/share as we reflect the positive progress outlook of Phuc Ninh Urban project, and the current average market price of the surrounding area in Phuc Ninh project (up more than 2 times as they first sold the phase 2) in revaluating the remaining area of the project . The total expected return in the next twelve months will be +16.3% (based on the closing price as of September 6th, 2023).
ACB - Strong Asset Quality Amid Challenges
06-09-2023
: ACB
: Banking
: Chinh Nguyen
Tags:
- ACB recorded a Total Operating Income (TOI) of VND 8 trillion in Q2/23, representing a YoY increase of 16%. This growth was driven by an increase in Net Interest Income (NII) to VND 6.24 trillion (+11% YoY) in combination with a strong contribution from non-interest income sources. Despite maintaining a robust YoY growth of +16% in total operating income, the bank decided to normalize its provision expenses at VND 706 billion, compared to the reversal of debt restructuring provisions in Q2/2022. This normalization resulted in a 1.7% YoY decrease in ACB's Profit before tax (PBT) which reached VND 4.8 trillion in Q2/2023.
- The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for ACB's customer loans increased to 1.07%, marking a 10-basis point rise compared to the previous quarter and a 30-basis point increase compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, on-balance sheet NPLs were recorded at 0.96%, with the remaining increase being attributed to when cross-referencing with CIC (Customer ACB's NPLs at other banks). The provision expenses amounted to VND 706 billion in Q2/23. The bank noted that this provision was significantly higher due to the provisions set aside for bad debts by CIC. ACB expects to reverse this provision in the latter half of the year concerning the CIC's provisions.
- With an appropriate growth strategy, ACB can cautiously expand its lending activities to maintain a healthy and balanced portfolio while efficiently allocating capital. This approach helps in controlling credit costs and ensuring good profitability. It also strengthens the bank's resilience in various scenarios, particularly in a challenging economic environment that may persist in 2023. We maintain our BUY recommendation for ACB with a target price of VND 29,000 per share, equivalent to a 26% return based on the closing price on Sep 6, 2023. Our projected PBT for 2023-2024 is VND 19,979 billion (+16.7%) and VND 23,164 billion (+16%), respectively.
Airlines Business Update – Waiting for a Tailwind
05-09-2023
: HVN
: Aviation
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Robust recovery of international passenger volume has helped airlines witness rapid growth in transportation and ancillary revenue.
- Airlines have reduced losses significantly, but high fuel and financial costs are keeping them from profits.
- Optimizing fleet operations with expansion of international routes will help airlines' earnings outlook gradually improve going forward.
- HVN's fleet restructuring and transferring stake in Skypec plan in the near future are catalysts to help speed up the Company's profit recovery.
PPC – Eyes on the dividend income and S6 generator reoperation
31-08-2023
: PPC
: Utilities
: Hoai Trinh
Tags:
- PPC reported its 1H23 electricity sales volume of 1,357 mn kWh (-7.7% YoY), while net revenue was VND 2,708 bn (+14,4% YoY), owing to the high ASP (as thermal coal prices remained high). NPAT came at VND 201 bn (+29.7% YoY), climbed significantly mainly due to (1) a dividend income of VND 99.8 bn from associate companies in 2Q23 while 2Q22 was not recorded, and (2) a change in accounting method for major repair costs, which resulted in large repair costs of fixed assets in Q2 recorded at VND 5.1 bn (-94% YoY).
- 2H2023 earnings are mainly due to dividend income from associate companies. We believe that the dividend income in 2H will support PPC's business results when the company reports deducted revenue of VND 161 bn in Q3/2023 (due to a measurement error from December 2018 to March 2022). We also expect the S6 generator to operate again in September 2023 will help PPC increase power output. For FY23, we forecast PPC's net revenue and NPAT to be VND 6,089 bn (+15.4% YoY) and VND309 bn (-37.8% YoY), respectively.
- We maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with a one-year target price of VND 15,500/share. With an expected cash dividend of VND 800/share in the next 12 months, the total return is determined at 12% based on the closing price on Aug 31th 2023.
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