17-04-2026VNINDEX1817.17-2.66-0.15% HNXIndex2603.511.37% UPCOM128.370.150.12% VN301988.118.920.45% VN1001907.34-0.74-0.04% HNX30546.57-1.71-0.31% VNXALL2968.74-1.16-0.04% VNX503330.930.390.01% VNMID2235.94-2.50-0.11% VNSML1417.220.950.07% DCM – “A dark horse” in fertilizer industry
19-10-2023
: DCM
: Fertilizer
: Ngan Le
Tags:
- In 2Q2023, DCM announced revenue of VND 3,291 bn (USD 138.9 mn; -19% YoY) and a gross margin of 11% (-22% bps YoY), resulting in VND 311 bn NPAT-MI (USD 13.1 mn; -69% YoY).
- 2Q23 revenue outperformed 1Q23’s thanks to NPK sales, which increased dramatically to VND 632 bn from VND 69 bn in 1Q23. NPAT-MI also increased by 36% QoQ in 2Q23, supported by a decline in SG&A to sales, from 15% in 1Q23 to 5% in 2Q23.
- When the urea plant finished depreciation in 4Q23, we expect the GPM will expand by 16% bps QoQ to 28% (4Q22: 29%). The GPM, therefore, expand from 16% in H1 2023 to 20% in H2 2023, which results in VND 678 bn NPAT (USD 28.6 mn; -61.3% YoY).
- FY2023 revenue and NPAT are expected to be VND 13,203 bn (USD 557 mn; -17% YoY), and VND 1,220 bn (USD 51.5 mn; -72% YoY), respectively. The 2023 correspondent EPS will be VND 2,075.
- We believe the current market price reflects the expectation of a higher 2024 NPAT as a result of urea plant reduced depreciation. We still recommend investors to hold onto the stock in order to receive an attractive dividend of VND 2,000/share in 2023F-24F.
FPT – Q3-2023 Result Update: Education and investment sector beat expectations, bolstering the group's profits growth momentum
18-10-2023
: FPT
: Technologies
: Tung Do
Tags: Business Update
- Q3-2023 revenue grew by 23% YoY, of which, the IT sector jumped by 30% YoY, the Telecom sector increased by 7% YoY, and the Education and Investment sector increased by 55% YoY. PBT of the IT/Telecom/Education and investment sectors increased by 11% YoY/8% YoY/77% YoY, thereby bringing the group's PBT up by 20% YoY.
- Cumulatively in 9M-2023, FPT's revenue and PBT grew by 22% YoY and 19% YoY, respectively. Overall, this result was in line with our previous expectations with actual PBT fulfilling 75% of our full-year forecast.
- For 2023F, we slightly adjusted the NPAT forecast to VND 6,350 billion (+20% YoY) to reflect the better-than-expected developments in the Education and Investment sector. For 2024F, the PAT forecast remains unchanged at VND 7,759 billion (+24% YoY). EPS for 2023F/24F is 5,000 VND/6,250 VND respectively.
- We roll our valuation forward to 2024F and raise TP to 109,300 VND, corresponding to a total expected return including cash dividends of 20%. Recommended BUY on FPT.
Update on trade in September 2023
17-10-2023
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags: Trade
- Export turnover in Q4/2023 is estimated to increase by 4-6% YoY.
- Electronics and agriculture are the main drivers for export growth.
- The high-interest rate environment is an obstacle to global demand recovery.
The busy season is coming for Vietnam retailers
16-10-2023
: MWG, PNJ, FRT, MSN
: Retailing
: An Nguyen
Tags: shopping season retail industry
- Based on the historical performance of Vietnam leading retailers, except during the Covid-19 pandemic period (2020 – 2022), sales reached the highest quarterly level in Q4 & Q1. For 2023, we believe that consumers will go back to their shopping habits as before the pre-pandemic period. Together with the easing of inflation, lower interest rates, modest economic recovery, and consumption buffer policies, we expect that Q4 2023 sales would present a better performance than Q3 2023.
- Vietnam retailers have opened new stores in 1H2023. We suppose that this expansion will help retailers to enlarge their coverage, increasing their accessibility to customers. When the economy recovers (expected in Q4 2023), retailers will be able to boost stores’ traffic, supporting sales.
- We consider that retailers would need a lot of effort to increase average sales per store in the mid-term. We believe that the economy should not grow strong, instead of, it will recover step-by-step to a normal level. Therefore, incomes of households will not rise at a high rate, partly limiting the willingness to pay for high value products. Consequently, while Q4 2023 sales per store is expected to recover from Q3 2023, it might not exceed the prior-year level.
CTG – Strengthening Asset Quality for a New Growth Phase
13-10-2023
: CTG
: Banking
: Dang Chinh
Tags:
- In Q2 2023, total operating income (TOI) reached VND 17.7 trillion (+11.5% YoY) due to the net interest income (NII) being VND 12.7 trillion (+6.6% YoY), combined with a high growth in non-interest income, totaling VND 5 trillion (+26% YoY). For the first half of 2023, the total TOI and profit before tax (PBT) were VND 34.8 trillion (+15.9% YoY) and VND 12.5 trillion (+8% YoY) respectively, achieving about 54% of the bank's 2023 profit plan.
- The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is well-controlled at 1.27% compared to 1.28% in Q1 2023. Group 2 loans decreased to 2.59% compared to the previous quarter. CTG has also made provisions of VND 6.4 trillion in Q2 (+10% YoY and -4% QoQ). As a result, CTG's loan loss reserve (LLR) was maintained at 168.9% compared to Q1.
- For the second half of the year, the net interest income is expected to grow by 12% compared to the first half (+10% YoY), providing a boost to TOI (+5% YoY and +4% HoH). In a conservative scenario, it is expected that the bank will maintain cost provisions at a level equivalent to the first half, which is VND 12 trillion. Therefore, the estimated PBT for the second half is VND 12.1 trillion (+28% YoY), remaining stable compared to 1H 2023. For the full year, TOI and PBT are estimated to be VND 71.1 trillion (+10.9% YoY) and VND 24.7 trillion (+18% YoY) respectively. Projected net profit and earnings per share (EPS) are VND 19.8 trillion and VND 3,632, respectively.
- CTG is currently trading at a P/B ratio of 1.2, which is a 12% discount to the 5-year average of 1.34, making it an attractive valuation compared to the P/B ratios of other state-owned commercial banks. Therefore, at a target price of VND 34,900/share, corresponding to a forward P/B of 1.12 in 2023, it is recommended to buy CTG shares for medium to long-term holding.
NT2 – Tough in the near term, but negatives partly priced in
12-10-2023
: NT2
: Utilities
: Hoai Trinh
Tags: NT2
- Full electricity market prices were down significantly in August, falling to 783 VND/kWh (-48.2% YoY). This abrupt decline is primarily attributable to the numerous bouts of heavy rain that occurred in both the North and South in July and August. Due to the significant rainfall, hydroelectric power plant reservoirs received an increase in water flow. Falling temperatures also resulted in a decrease in the consumption of electricity and the mobilization of thermal power plants.
- NT2 recorded 365 mn kWh of electricity in Q3/2023 (-65% QoQ, -59% YoY). The factory was allocated a low Qc in August (44.53 mn kWh) while the full electricity market price (FMP) was low, so the real output was low. NT2 overhauled the plant beginning September 7, and because the FMP price was lower than variable costs, the plant operated with an output of 5 mn kWh in the first six days of the month. Correspondingly, we forecast NT2's Q3/2023 revenue and NPAT to reach VND 817 bn (-63% QoQ, -62% YoY) and - VND 123 bn, respectively.
- For FY23, we lower net revenue to VND 7,216 bn (-17.9% YoY) on the assumption of (1) lowering forecast electricity output to 3.5 bn kWh (-13.8% YoY); (2) average gas price forecast at 9.0 USD/mn BTU (-3.2% YoY); and (3) including compensation for exchange rate losses of VND 155 bn expected to be received in Q4. The NT2 overhaul costs (estimated at VND 407 bn) will be disbursed gradually beginning in Q4/2023 and continuing for the next few years. As a result, we expect 2023 NPAT to be VND 449.7 bn (-49.1% YoY), corresponding to an EPS of 1,729 VND/share.
- We maintain a NEUTRAL rating with a one-year target price of VND 25,800/share. With an expected cash dividend of VND 1,500/share in the next 12 months, the total return is at 10% based on the closing price on Oct 12th, 2023.
PNJ - Net margin is expected to recover from Sept-2023
11-10-2023
: PNJ
: Retailing
: An Nguyen
Tags: Jewelry retail PNJ
- In Aug-2023, PNJ recorded revenue and net profit of VND2,303 bn (-2.6% MoM; -1.1% YoY) and VND76 bn (-13.6% MoM; -3.8% YoY). Although the retail segment remained the largest contributor to total revenue, the gold bar presented the highest sales growth among business segments at VND704 bn (+3.9% MoM; +55% YoY). Profit decreased at a higher pace than revenue due to the higher contribution of gold bar to total revenue.
- We forecast Q3 2023 sales and net profit to be VND7,089 bn (+5.7% QoQ; -3.7% YoY) and VND258 bn (-22.8% QoQ; +2.4% YoY), respectively. On the back of the upcoming wedding season (mid-Sept), we expect that retail sales would recover from Sept-2023, resulting in a higher gross margin. With the assumption of stable opex/sales ratio, we believe that the net margin will move in the same trend as the gross margin.
- Based on the combination of FCFE valuation model (50%) and multiple comparison (50%), with an applied 2024 P/E of 15.1x, our target price is VND88,000. Adding a cash dividend of VND2,000, the 12-months expected return is +12.1% compared to the closing price on Oct 11st 2023, equivalent to an ACCUMULATE recommendation.
NLG – Sales to recover, profit to be accrued in 4Q
10-10-2023
: NLG
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do
Tags: NLG
- In the 2Q2023, NLG recorded revenue of VND 953bn (USD 39.2MN, -23%YoY), due to the handover of villas in the Aqua sub-division (66 high-value villas, with a price range from VND 10-20 billion/unit). The gross profit margin (GPM) was maintained at 59% owing to the contribution of high-end projects. Gross profit reached VND 561bn (or USD 23.1mn, +329%YoY, +11%QoQ). With VND 37bn income from associates, NLG had 2Q23 net profit-after-tax-and-minority-interest (NPAT-MI) of VND 121bn (+1,629%QoQ, +9%YoY). To sum up, in 1H23, the company recorded NPAT-MI of VND 128bn (USD 5.3mn), met ~22% of our full-year forecast.
- In 3Q, we see recovering housing demand in HCMC and neighboring provinces. Particularly, in September, the block AK-10 of Akari recognized pre-sale value of VND 700bn (met ~33% of our 2H23 forecast for Akari project). In addition, from our observation, we see that villas in the Park Village sub-division have started recorded transactions. As a result, we maintain our expectations that NLG can have 2H23 pre-sale value of VND 5,817bn (USD 239 mn) and total 2023 pre-sale value of VND 6,684bn (USD 275mn, 71% of the company's plan).
- In 2H23, we expect the company to recognize revenue of VND 2,776bn (USD 114.2mn, +11%YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 445bn (USD 18.3mn, equivalent to 2H22 NPAT-MI). FY2023, revenue and NPAT-MI will be VND 3,964bn and VND 573bn, fulfilling 98% of the company’s FY2023 guidance. EPS will be VND 1,434. The risk of our estimation would come from lacking the Paragon Dai Phuoc divestment income if the legal processing takes longer time than our expectation.
- Using the RNAV method, we have a target price of VND 37,500/share (upside +14.5%, including cash dividend of VND 500/share), equivalent to an ACCUMULATE recommendation.
HAH – The low freight and time charter rates are putting pressure on the profit outlook for 2024.
09-10-2023
: HAH
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports HAH
- Accumulated in 8M2023, containers volume of handling and shipping were 268 thousand TEU and 261 thousand TEU, respectively, completing 64% and 66% of the 2023 plan (before adjustment), completing 68% and 64% of our forecast, respectively.
- HAH adjusted the plan for the year 2023, net revenue and NPATMI are VND 2,669 billion (-17% YoY) and VND 400 billion (-51% YoY) respectively, representing a 10% and 19% reduction compared to the initial plan.
- Forecast for 2024, net revenue and NPATMI will be VND 2,700 billion (+1% YoY) and VND 92 billion (-77% YoY). EPS is 868 VND for 2024. We use the multiple method, target P/B and target EV/EBITDA of 1,2x and 4.6x respectively. We recommend to REDUCE with a target price of VND 32.300.
MBB - Clearer Recovery Prospects in the Second Half of 2023
06-10-2023
: MBB
: Banking
: Dang Chinh
Tags:
- In Q2/2023, MBB experienced a slowdown in its primary revenue sources within the backdrop of the industry's general difficulties, with a total operating income (TOI) of VND 11.5 trillion (+3% YoY). Net interest income (NII) was the driving force with a 6% growth, reaching VND 9.4 trillion and contributing 82% total income. For the first half of 2023, TOI and PBT amounted to VND 23.4 trillion (+3% YoY) and VND 12.7 trillion (+7% YoY), respectively, completing 49% of the guideline.
- Moving into Q3/2023, there were signals of interest rate cuts across the entire system, including MBB, in recent months the interest rates on deposit for certain tenures were adjusted downward in March. Therefore, the expected reduction in funding costs in the upcoming quarters is likely to contribute positively to the recovery of the net interest margin (NIM) due to stable asset interest rates.
- We estimate that MBB's interest income will become more positive in the latter half of 2023 (H2 2023) as credit growth continues to be strong compared to the industry, and NIM shows signs of recovery. However, the pace of TOI growth remains slow due to securities brokerage and insurance activities, which require more time to recover. In our baseline scenario, we project that MBB will achieve a 19% credit growth for the full year 2023, combined with a gradual NIM recovery from H2 2023 (+14 bps compared to the first half of the year). As a result, for the last six months of the year, net interest income is estimated to grow by 9% compared to the first half (+15% YoY), serving as the main driver for TOI (+17% YoY and +13% HoH). PBT for the second half of the year is estimated at VND 13.8 trillion, representing a 9% increase compared to the first half and a 28% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. For the full year 2023, TOI and PBT are projected to be VND 50.1 trillion (+10% YoY) and VND 26.6 trillion (+17% YoY), respectively. The estimated net profit after tax and earnings per share (EPS) for the corresponding period are VND 20.5 trillion and VND 4,214.
- MBB is currently trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.2, which represents a 21% discount compared to the 5-year average of 1.43 for this stock. Therefore, at a target price of VND 22,600 per share, corresponding to a P/B forward (fwd) ratio of 1 for 2023, we recommend buying MBB shares for medium to long-term holding with a potential profit of 19.7% compared to the closing price on October 6, 2023.
IDC - The outcomes following the gradual restructuring are becoming more evident
05-10-2023
: IDC
: Industrial Land RE
: Hung Le
Tags:
- The consolidated revenue for the first half of 2023 reached VND 3,554 billion (a 29% decrease compared to the same period last year and approximately 43% of the full-year 2023 plan), while the Net Profit beforer Tax (NPBT) was VND 1,034 billion (a 52% decrease compared to the same period last year and 41% of the annual plan). The primary reason for this discrepancy is the one-time revenue recorded in the first half of 2022 for the Nhon Trach 5 IP.
- We hold a positive outlook on IDICO (HNX: IDC) due to several key factors. Firstly, their substantial inventory of 677 hectares of leaseable land ready for lease guarantees at least 5 more years of business performance while pursuing additional projects ranging from 1,893 to 2,283 hectares. This is complemented by a significant improvement in asset turnover since 2020, evident in impressive land leasing figures for 6T2023. Secondly, the return to normal operations of the Dak Mi 3 hydropower plant and the operation of the Huu Thanh sub station Phase 1 contribute added value to their energy business segment. Thirdly, IDC's ready built- factories business segment exhibits potential, with the development of approximately 2.6 hectares out of an estimated 36 hectares in two strategic locations, Nhon Trach and Huu Thanh Industrial Parks, aimed at diversifying revenue streams and expanding their customer base.
- With a substantial backlog of remaining contracts from 2022 and new agreements signed in 6M2023, including large contracts with the Giant manufactures like PepsiCo (20 hectares) and Hyosung (25 hectares), we believe that IDC can successfully achieve its annual plan upon the completion of land handovers under these lease contracts. Additionally, IDC has plans to distribute cash dividends over the next 12 months at a rate not lower than 4,000 VND per share, equivalent to a dividend yield of approximately 8.8% at the closing price on October 4, 2023.
PVD - High rig day rate boost 2023-2024 business results
04-10-2023
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Ngan Le
Tags:
- We increase our estimates for 2023’s revenue and net profit by 2%/27% respectively, with VND 5,101 bn in revenue (or USD 223.6 mn, -6.1% YoY) and VND 460 bn in NPAT-MI (or USD 19.4 mn), compared to a loss of VND 99 bn in 2022. The 2023 correspondent EPS will be VND 827.
- We anticipate the day rate of PVD Jackups to rise to USD 92,700 (+14% YoY) in 2024.
- With the target PBR of 1.20x, we come up with a BUY recommendation with the target price of VND 30,900 per share, equivalent to a return of 26% as of the closing price on Oct 3rd, which is higher by 15% compared to the latest target price (VND 26,800) on Aug-2023.
19-10-2023
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