13-04-2026VNINDEX1758.968.960.51% HNXIndex251.66-0.25-0.10% UPCOM127.70.320.25% VN301925.66-2.57-0.13% VN1001860.333.570.19% HNX30546.86-1.62-0.29% VNXALL2898.476.940.24% VNX503242.74.220.13% VNMID2254.7612.120.54% VNSML1423.92-1.41-0.10% DPM – 3Q23 earnings results worse-than-expected
16-11-2023
: DPM
: Fertilizer
: Ngan Le
Tags: DCM 3Q2023
- 3Q23 net revenue and NPAT-MI were VND 3,216 bn (USD 136 mn; -17% YoY) and VND 64 bn NPAT-MI (USD 2.7 mn; -94% YoY), respectively.
- We expect the bottom line to rebound in 4Q2023 after a trough in 3Q2023 thanks to 1) the improvement in both selling price and sales volume and 2) the cooling down of gas input price which will support the gross margin.
- FY2023 we estimate that DPM can achieve VND 13,705 bn revenue (USD 578 bn; -26% YoY) and VND 690 bn NPAT-MI (USD 29.1 mn; -88% YoY). 2023F correspondent EPS will be VND 1,748.
- We maintain a NEUTRAL recommendation with 11% lower one-year target price of VND 32,200/share (from VND 36,200/share). The lower target price is primarily driven by downward earning revisions. However, an expected cash dividend of VND4,000/share in 2023 (be paid in 2024) ~ a dividend yield of 12% will be a plus.
Update on trade in October 2023
15-11-2023
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags:
- Exports of the domestic sector rose by double digits in October 2023.
- Imports of textile garment and footwear materials ended a 12-month consecutive decline.
- The hard part is over for Vietnamese exporters
The debt issue
15-11-2023
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags: debt
- Years of cheap money – meaning extremely low real interest rates - has made it easy for corporations and governments globally to borrow above what they are now able to repay. This is especially the case in emerging markets where interest payments have surged (Figure 1).
VNM - Domestic sales continue growing quarter-over-quarter
14-11-2023
: VNM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: An Nguyen
Tags:
- Q3 2023 sales reached VND15,637 bn (+2.9% QoQ; -2.8% YoY). The lower than last year sales is due to the high base effect while the domestic channel becomes the growth driver of both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis. Q3 2023 net profit continued growing to VND2,493 bn (+13.4% QoQ; +8.5% YoY) due to (1) improved gross margin given the easing of input costs; and (2) SG&A optimization.
- Based on 9M2023 positive results, we calculate that the 2023 sales will show a positive growth, to VND62,868 bn (+5% YoY), after experiencing a negative growth in 2022. Similar to the top-line, we believe that 2023 NPAT-MI will draw a better performance, at a growth of +7% YoY to VND9,081 bn. The equivalent EPS is VND3,910 (+8% YoY).
- We believe that VNM ‘s growth indicators in 2H2023 will continue to enhance the 2024 performance. Therefore, we predict that the 2024 sales and NPAT-MI to be VND65,641 bn (+4% YoY) and VND10,068 bn (+11% YoY), respectively. The equivalent EPS will be VND4,336 (+11% YoY).
- We combined FCFF valuation model (50%) and multiples comparison (50%) with an applied 2024 P/E of 19.0x, producing the target price of VND87,600. For the 2024 period, we lower the targeted P/E to 19.0x from 21.0x in the 2023 period to reflect the weak sentiment of Vietnam stock market. Adding an expected cash dividend of VND3,850, the 12-months expected return is 33% compared to the closing price on Nov 13rd 2023, equivalent to BUY recommendation.
OCB - Q3/2023 High PBT Growth Thanks to Stable Revenues and Cost Control
13-11-2023
: OCB
: Banking
: Dang Chinh
Tags:
- In Q3/2023, OCB recorded a total operating income of 2.4 trillion VND (+19.2% YoY and 4.5% QoQ),driven by strong growth in non-interest income sources. Additionally, the bank improved its operational efficiency, as reflected in the Cost-to-Income Ratio (TTM) decreasing by 1.3 percentage points to 31.2%, and provision expenses decreasing by 13%, resulting in a YoY PBT increase of 49% to 1.3 trillion VND. Cumulatively for the first nine months of 2023, the PBT reached 3.9 trillion VND (+48% YoY), completing 65% of the 2023 profit plan.
- In the first nine months of 2023, credit growth achieved 10.4% YTD. Within this, the outstanding balance of customer loans (CVKH) increased by 9.8% YTD, and the corporate bond portfolio increased by 35.68% YTD, amounting to about 1 trillion VND, representing 3% of the total credit. Regarding CVKH, the retail and corporate credit proportions were 36% and 64%, respectively (compared to 40% and 60% at the end of 2022).
- The Net Interest Margin (NIM) experienced a slight decline of 4 basis pointscompared to Q2, reaching 3.72%. The faster decline in asset yields, according to our analysis, was due to (1) the bank lowering interest rates to support customers and (2) the corporate bond portfolio growing more rapidly.
- For Q4/2023, it is expected that total operating income will increase slightly (+3% YoY) compared to the same period last year, thanks to high credit growth (+14.6% YTD) and a stable NIM (TTM) at 3.8%.Conversely, with LLR reduced to a low level and the economic backdrop showing limited improvement, it is forecasted that provisions will remain at a level equivalent to Q3/2023. Therefore, the expected PBT for Q4/2023 is projected to reach 1.6 trillion VND (-7% YoY). For the full year 2023, the PBT is expected to reach 5.5 trillion VND (+25.8% YoY). The estimated Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) and Earnings Per Share (EPS) are 4.4 trillion VND and 2,076 VND, respectively.
- Our target price is 15,500 VND per share, corresponding to a PBR of 1.08 and a 13% return compared to the closing price on November 13, 2023. Thus, we recommend to Accumulate OCB.
REE – Fundamentals look sound with catalysts in place
10-11-2023
: REE
: Power
: Hoai Trinh
Tags:
- In 9M/2023, REE's net revenue and PAT reached VND 6,505 bn (+3.2% YoY) and VND 1,684 bn (-14.6% YoY), respectively, owing mostly to the hydroelectricity's reduced contribution. Power output and FMP prices both fell in Q3/2023, causing the energy segment's contribution to NPAT-MI to fall considerably (-48.3% YoY). However, we expect that the results of the energy segment will improve in Q4/2023. We forecast REE's net revenue and NPAT-MI would be VND 8,827 bn (-5.8% YoY) and VND 2,437 bn (-9.5% YoY) in 2023, equivalent to EPS of 5,967 VND/share.
- For FY2024, we estimate that REE's net sales and NPAT-MI will be VND 9,324 bn (+5.6% YoY) and VND 2,810 bn (+15.3% YoY), respectively, equating to EPS of 6,878 VND/share. The main growth drivers in 2024 business results are (1) the E.town 6 project, which is expected to contribute an additional 26% to the existing rental floor area when completed in mid-January 2024, and (2) the Light Square commercial project with a low-rise segment (phase 1), which is expected to complete construction at the end of 2023 and hand over in 2024.
- We maintain a BUY rating with a target price of VND 74,000/share based on a sum of the parts (SoTP) valuation. With an expected cash dividend of VND 1,000/share in the next 12 months, total return is determined at 30% based on the closing price on Nov 10th, 2023.
GMD – In 2024, rapid NPATMI growth is driven by service charge and volume factors
09-11-2023
: GMD
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports GMD
- In Q3-FY23, container throughput in Hai Phong and in the Southern region were 283 thousand TEU (+4% YoY/+2% QoQ) and 487 thousand TEU (-4% YoY/+4% QoQ) respectively, in which GML's volume was 254 thousand TEU (-14% YoY/+7%QoQ). Revenue and PBT were VND 998 billion (+1% YoY / +9% QoQ) and VND 398 billion VND (+17% QoQ (excluding profit from divestment of Nam Hai Dinh Vu port)/+18% YoY), respectively.
- Forecast for Q4-FY23, revenue and NPATMI are VND 1,060 billion (-1% YoY) and VND 319 billion (+69% YoY), respectively. The high growth rate comes from the expectation that GMD will continue to maintain a high EBIT margin and GML will archieve a breakeven point in Q4-FY23, the same period recording a loss of VND 22 billion. EPS for 2023 will be VND 7,300.
- For 2024F, revenue and NPATMI will be VND 4,163 bn (+8% YoY) and VND 1,280 bn (+36% YoY, excluding profit from divestment of NHDV port), EPS will be VND 3,850. In particular, we expect that the draft amendment to Circular 54/2018/TT-BGTVT will be applied from the beginning of 2024, which will help GMD's EBIT margin continue to expand and GML escape the loss situation as in 2023.
- We use sum of the part (SOTP) valuation method and increase the target price to 76,700 VND/share, with the expected cash dividend of 1,200 VND, equivalent to a total expected return of 15%. We recommend ACCUMULTE for long-term investment.
ACB - Sustaining Growth Aligned with Market Conditions
08-11-2023
: ACB
: Banking
: Dang Chinh
Tags:
- ACB announces its Q3 results with a consolidated total operating income (TOI) of 8.4 trillion VND (+18.8% YoY, +5% QoQ). Within this, net interest income (NII) amounted to 6.2 trillion VND (+2.9% YoY, -0.6% QoQ), and non-interest income reached 2.2 trillion VND (+109.2% YoY, +24.6% QoQ). The driving force behind the growth in non-interest income includes (1) revenue from securities activities at a high 950 billion VND (+98% QoQ) compared to a loss of 42 billion VND in the same period last year, (2) maintaining high foreign exchange income of 316 billion VND (+229% YoY, -3.6% QoQ), offsetting the decrease in (3) fee income, which was 764 billion VND (-12% YoY, -5% QoQ). Accumulated over 9 months of 2023, the bank's PBT reached 15 trillion VND, a growth of 11.3% YoY, and it has achieved 75% of its plan.
- The Net Interest Margin (NIM) decreased by 15 basis points to 3.98% in Q3/23 due to a 64-basis point drop in ACB's asset yields, while funding costs decreased by 54 basis points. This can be explained by: (1) the balance sheet's specific nature, as the bank's loan portfolio mainly consists of short-term loans, while deposit structure is focused on long-term deposits, reflected in the relatively low SFLR of about 17.4%, and (2) weak credit demand of the industry.
- ACB's non-performing loan ratio for customer loans is 1.21%, increasing by approximately 14 basis points compared to the previous quarter and 19 basis points YoY. Of this, internal non-performing loans are only recorded at 1.08%, with the remaining increase being recognized when cross-referencing with the CIC (Credit Information Center) for ACB customer loans in other banks.
- The projected PBT for 2023 for ACB is 17%, reaching 20 trillion VND. This is equivalent to the PBT of 5 trillion VND (+38% YoY) in Q4/23, indicating that ACB will show further improvement in core business operations as net interest income improves and provisions compensating for the reduced contribution from securities activities (government bonds), which was significant in Q3.
- The projected PBT for 2023 and the corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are 20 trillion VND (+17% YoY) and 4,076 VND, respectively. We maintain a BUY recommendation for ACB with a target price of 29,000 VND, equivalent to a return of 27% compared to the closing price on November 8, 2023
HSG – Tough times have passed
07-11-2023
: HSG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do
Tags: HSG
- In 4Q of fiscal year (FY) 2023, HSG recorded revenue of VND 8,235bn (USD 336mn, -28%YoY, -7%QoQ), with sales volume of 390 thousand tons (+25%YoY, +4%QoQ), owing to the volume in foreign markets (North America, EU, Asia). The 4Q gross profit margin (GPM) recovered to 13.2%, while SG&A costs decresead to VND 627bn. HSG recorded a 4Q NPAT-MI of VND 438bn (improved significantly compared to 3Q).
- For FY024, the company thinks that: 1/ the steel market has passed the most difficult period; 2/ 2024 output can reach 1.56 million tons (+11.4%YoY, contributed by domestic and foreign markets); 3/ focusing on perfecting the Hoasen Home system.
For FY2024, we forecast that HSG can record revenue of VND 34.8tn (VND 1.42bn, +10%YoY) and GPM of 11.6% (equivalent to the average level in the 2H of FY2023). HSG's NPAT-MI can reach VND 782 bn (34x times higher than FY2023). 2024EPS can reach VND 1,180. - We use two methods (FCFE and PB) to evaluate the stock. Our fair value comes at VND 21,500 value per share, implying a total return of +9% as of the closing price on November 07th, 2023, equivalent to an ACCUMULATE recommendation for Hoa Sen Group Jsc.
ACV – Q3-2023 Result Update: Provisioning for Receivables from Local Airlines Weighed on Core Profit Growth
06-11-2023
: ACV
: Aviation
: Tung Do
Tags: ACV
- The international passenger volume (+112% YoY) continues to support core revenue growth (+29% YoY).
- ACV had to set aside nearly VND 700 billion in provisions for overdue receivables, in which VND 465 billion for Bamboo Airways’ and VND 155 billion for VJC’s, causing EBIT to only grow by 11% YoY.
- The depreciation of JPY/VND exchange rate during the period helped ACV record VND 480 billion in unrealized exchange rate gains, nearly unchanged vs same period last year, thus not providing much support to NPAT growth (+14% YoY).
- Accumulated 9M-2023 revenue and NPAT (excluding gains from the State’s airfield assets) reached VND 13,100 billion (+60% YoY) and VND 6,011 billion (+16% YoY), respectively, and were 78% and 75% completed. Our forecast revenue and PAT for the whole year.
- Due to the worse-than-expected trend of provisioning for bad receivables, 2023 and 2024 forecasts for are under review
PVD – 3Q2023: good outcome
03-11-2023
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Ngan Le
Tags:
- In 3Q2023 PVD reported revenue of VND 1,381 bn (USD 58.3 mn; +11% YoY; -2% QoQ), while NPAT-MI went up to VND 151 bn (USD 6.4 mn), from a loss of VND 34 bn (USD 1.4 mn) in the same period last year.
- Interest expenses and exchange rate difference loss outweighted the improvements in gross margins for both drilling and well services. Consequently, 3Q2023 NPAT-MI decreased 16% QoQ.
- In 2024, we expect NPAT-MI to be around VND 700 bn (USD 29 mn; +50% YoY), and a VND 1,231 EPS. We propose to ACCUMUALTE and keep a target price of VND 30,900/share, which translates to a 18% return as of the closing price on Nov 2nd.
KBC – Q3/2023’s business results: An unexpected bass note
02-11-2023
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Hung Le
Tags:
- KBC released its Q32023’s financial results with revenue of VND 247 billion (+22%), parent company shareholders' NPAT reached nearly VND 14 billion, plunging by 99% over the same period, due to the delay of handover for tentants and the base earning result in Q22023 caused by booking and re-evaluating of investment in Saigon - Da Nang company. If excluding the profit from revaluation, Q3/2022 NPAT will change from profit to loss.
- Phuc Ninh and Trang Cat are two projects with legal bottlenecks and large land funds for business which have potential to produce the breakthrough business results in the near future. The remaining IP land fund that are now underway will be approximately 142 ha by the end of 2023. In which, Tan Phu Trung Industrial Park has 58 ha, and Nam Son Hap Linh Industrial Park owns 84 ha; this is sufficient to secure the business performance within the following two years while waiting Tan Tap, Loc Giang, and Trang Due 3 to be ready.
- In a positive case, KBC will hand over all signed contracts (50 ha) in Q4, equivalent to completing the handover of 182 ha in 2023, and will record total revenue of VND7,536 billion (+693%YoY), completing 83% of the annual plan. Additionally, NPAT is expected to reach VND3,059 billion (100%YoY), completing 76% of the guideline. The corresponding 2023 EPS is 3,985 VND.
- Based on the sum of components valuation method (SOTP), we maintain the target price of 40,000 VND/share from the last update. The expected return over the next 12 months is +50.0% (based on the closing price on 11/01/2023).
16-11-2023
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