INFOGRAPHIC: 2015 REAL ESTATE MARKET

 2015 was a much celebrated year for Vietnam's real estate market as it marked the infliction point where the market first recovered after a 5-year crisis. Thanks to a low interest rate environment, banks' accommodative stance towards mortgage lending on top of the government's many supports, transactions boomed in almost all segments of the housing market. Having learnt a lot from the hard time, real estate developers offered a better diversity of housing products where end-users now have a equal footing with that of real estate investors and speculators. As the results, liquidity have been steady on the rise despite the fast-growing number of new launches.

SKG - 2015 Earnings update

In 2015, the number of tourists visiting Phu Quoc grew by 58.1% (yoy), reaching 1.66 million, with domestic tourists accounting for  nearly 90% of the total volume.  A remarkable growth of Phu Quoc tourism was in compliance with the development of economic activity as well as positive business performances in this island. In particular,  Superdong Kien Giang high speedboat JSC (SKG-HSX) is a representative example, in which 2015 earnings result  recorded optimistic growth thanks to the rapid development of Phu Quoc Island as well as a strong decline in oil price.

PXI – Uncertain business prospects

Recently, Rongviet Research analyst had a meeting and company tour to Petroleum Industrial & Civil Construction JSC (PXI – HSX).

PXI is one of three subsidiaries of Petro Vietnam Construction JSC (PVX – HNX) that have been listed on Vietnam stock exchanges. In contrast to mechanical engineering companies (PXS and PXT), PXT focuses more on civil construction, infrastructure and real estate investment along with building and urban businesses. However, PXI’s prospects have been uncertain due to the dependence of core business on industrial projects and investment efficiency taking a long time to make the impact on business results. In addition, with the quite real estate market in Vung Tau, PXI’s projects could not be notable aspects for company development at this moment.

Feed industry: Expect on the improvement of livestock industry

In 2014, Argricultural Invetsment became a well-known term among corporations. HPG, MSN, MWG, HAG and even VIC altogether announced plan to penetrate into farming and providing agricultural products.  Apart from negative impact from TPP, agriculture industry still demonstrated certain advantages such as (1) falling prices in main commodities for example corn (-15%), soybeans (-28%), rice bran (-6%), (2) favorable policy to encourage agriculture development from policy makers; for example, VAT rate for animal feed is reduced. Specifically, after 3 years of epidemic, positive impact on agriculture industry became “clearer” at the end of2014. Total number of cattle reached 34 millions, increased 2%; among them, poultry and pig herd recorded the fastest growth rate, +3.15% and 1.9% respectively. On the other hand, since 2014, agriculture industry was less impacted by epidemic as it under well control. The above factors positively impact both livestock and feed industry.

BCI – Untying the knots

Our analyst just attended an analyst meeting of Binh Chanh Construction Investment JSC (HSX – BCI) where the Company affirmed optimistic earnings for Q4 and FY2015, supported by the liquidation of smaller projects and the contribution of Phong Phu 4 Residential Area. This years, BCI will focus on clearing the land for its various projects, including Le Minh Xuan IP Expansion, Corona City, Phong Phu 2 RA, etc.

Preliminary quality assessment of listed banks' assets after 3-year restruction

Banking system restruction project, which was launched in early 2012, approached the final phase (2011 – 2015). We will concentrate on assessing quality of assets of listed banks based on Q3/2015 compared to the pre-restruction period of 2011 to evaluate pros and cons of this project.

PLC - Major merging deal in asphalt industry at the end of 2015

Over the last 2 years, Vietnam has improved the infrastructure in transportation. According to the report from World Economic Forum, competitiveness index of transport infrastructure in Vietnam increased by 9 ranks, from rank 76 (2014 – 2015) to 67 (2015 – 2016). The basic construction concentrated in road (lowest rank) and created positive economic effect on related sectors. In particular, asphalt industry significantly benefits from such trend with total sale volume of the whole industry in 2015 reached approximately 933,000 tons (+23% compared to 2014). CAGR for the period 2009-2015 was approximately 14%.

SBV guides market new exchange rate policy

Today, new exchange rate policy began to take effect. According to Decision No. 2730, from Jan 04, 2016, SBV will announce the central rate between Vietnam dong and US dollar (central rate for short) instead of the average interbank exchange rate.

Market: My dear VNIndex

Let’s say markets are similar to human being. “A flow will have ebb” is held true in case of VNIndex and “easy come, easy” is how events take places in stock markets. Therefore, investors’ sentiment changed from time to time. There might be high tim like “670, 700 or 800 must be the destination for this year Index” or there might be low time like “There is no way this is the bottom, I will come back when it is 460”. In general, patient and able to stay with markets until this day is a real success. We, those who are stock traders should and must have a firm will to avoid “Index wave sickness”.

Otran logistics JSC – integrated logistics service is competitive advantage

Lately, RongViet Research analyst had a meeting and site visit at the–about to-IPO Otran logistics JSC (OTG). Being one of Otran group (formerly Vinacommodities) subsidiaries, OTG is an indispensable part of Otran group’s agricultural trading business. Going private since 4Q2014, OTG is providing services such as port stevedoring, warehousing and road trucking with the chartered capital of VND500 billion. Currently, OTG has 02 subsidiaries being Otran Dong Nai (97%) and Northern Otran (90%) plus 02 affiliates including Otran Energy (195)- depot leasing and Thi Vai general port (30%).   

Vietnam economic review 2015: Headwinds and Tailwinds

Vietnam economy has spent a smooth year in 2015. Looking back the whole year, the economic activities have been widened thanks to the improvement of consumption and industrial segment. However, trade balance, exchange rate and interest rate... have been the remaining issues. The main keys of Vietnam economy in 2015 will be discussed below.

The impacts from US’s lifting crude exports on global prices: Do not get too worried!

In 12/2015, US president passed the bill to eliminate the crude export barrier that had existed for nearly 40 years. It opens the unlimited opportunities for crude producers in US to find partners and export crude oil in the future. At this moment, crude price in WTI future contract (US light sweet oil) has surpassed Brent price for the first time since 2010. This pointed out the immediate effect from US decision on global price movements. However, we believe that this could not be an alarming issue for crude prospects in short-term.