HND – High mobilization rate
21-10-2021
21-10-2021: HND
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- Volume in 3Q2021 was roughly 1.7 bn kWh, +23% YoY thanks to lower La Nina magnitude compared to 3Q2020 and -8% QoQ because 3Q2021 was the rainy season.
- Revenue in 3Q2021 was VND 2,195 bn (or USD 95 mn) -4%YoY and -16% QoQ. This steeper decline compared to volume is because of the lower contract volume and contract price. NPAT in 3Q2021 was VND 6 bn (or USD 0.26 mn), -96% YoY and -97% QoQ.
- The company’s performance is expected to be better in 4Q2021 thanks to the dry season and high Qc. HND is going to recover in line with the thermal plant recovery in 2022. Our target price for HND is VND 22,300 with cash dividends of VND 400 in the next 12 months, this stock offers an upside of 25% compared to the closing price on Oct 21st, 2021, we recommend to BUY this stock.
38 GSP – Core earnings to growth thanks to new vessels
20-10-2021
: GSP
: Transportation, Logistics
: Vu Tran
Tags:
- Leading company in the LPG segment in Vietnam beside Nhat Viet.
- Belonging to PVN’s group is a benefit.
- New vessels will push earnings from 2022 but EPS will be diluted after issuing more shares.
- Expected stable cash dividend of VND1,300 - VND1,500 ~ dividend yield of 8.2% - 9.5% at this current market price.
- P/E TTM is 9.1x and P/B TTM is 0.9x.
SCS – Q3 2021 Business Results Preview: Higher ASP to compensate cargo volume decline induced by disrupted trading activities
19-10-2021
: SCS
: Logistics, Non-aviation Services
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Estimated Q3-2021 revenue/NPAT amounted to VND172Bn (+3% YoY)/VND121bn (+6% YoY). Cumulative 9M-2021 revenue/NPAT have completed 75%/77% of our full-year forecast.
- Affected by the strict social distancing, the int’l cargo volume in Q3-2021 declined by -6% YoY and -20% QoQ to 36 thousand tons. However, the surge in blended ASP (int’l and domestic) of 21% YoY to VND3.6 mn, given higher contribution of int’l cargo of 82% (vs 74% in Q3-2020) and more pharmaceutical imports in the cargo mix, compensate the int’l cargo decline, helping revenue inch up by 3% YoY.
- While COGS declined by -4% YoY and -16% QoQ, relatively in line with cargo throughput volume, administration expenses were strictly managed with a -3% YoY/ -13% QoQ reduction. These helped expand GPM/net margin by 149 bps YoY/201bps YoY in Q3-2021, primarily supporting bottom line growth rate.
- Projected 2021F/22F NPAT stay at VND530 (+14% YoY)/ VND602bn (+13% YoY), equivalent to 2021F/22F EPS of VND 9,087/ VND 10,461. We maintain TP of SCS at VND155,000 per share, implying 2021F/22F P/E of 15.9x/13.9x.
Trade remained weak in Sep 2021
18-10-2021
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- Trade remained weak in Sep due to the impact of Covid-19 restrictions.
- Uneven export growth across key markets.
- The import slowdown may weigh on the manufacturing and export outlook.
Asian currencies are all over the place!
15-10-2021
:
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:
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FMC – September revenue recovered strongly as expected
14-10-2021
: FMC
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
Tags:
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NKG – Positive signs from both foreign and domestic markets
13-10-2021
: NKG
: Materials
: Tu Pham
Tags:
- Selling volume in the domestic market recovered from roughly 10,000 tons in August to roughly 20,000 tons in September. Meanwhile, export volume was stable at roughly 82,000 tons in September, of which 85%-90% were exported to Europe and North America.
- The company sold roughly 275,000 tons of products in 3Q, rising by 32% YoY. Export volume increased strongly by 39% QoQ and 128% YoY to reach 224,000 tons in 3Q, contributing 81.5% to total selling volume.
- NKG plans to expand the steel pipe production capacity from 180,000 tons per year (tpy) to 300,000 tpy and increase coated steel production capacity by 30% from 1.0 million tpy to 1.3 million tpy in 2Q/2022.
- We adjust the 2021 NPAT forecast to VND 2.890 billion (USD 126.8mn, +28% compared to the previous projection) due to increasing gross margin in foreign markets.
- Based on the FCFF and PER methods, we recommend investors BUY this stock with a target price of roughly VND 62,000/share. Together with a cash dividend in the next 12 months of VND 1,000/share, the total return is 30% as of the closing price of VND 48,550 on October 13th, 2021.
VSH – Growth momentum from the Thuong Kon Tum plant
12-10-2021
: VSH
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- Volume in 3Q2021 was 328 mn kWh, two-and-a-half times more compared to last year thanks to the contribution from the Thuong Kon Tum plant and -37% QoQ.
- Revenue in 3Q2021 is estimated to be VND 314 billion (or USD 14 mn), triple compared to the previous year, and lower than the previous quarter because the company fully provided electricity in 2Q2021.
- Because of high fixed expenses including depreciation and interest, results in 3Q2021 will hover around the break-even point. The new contract price for the Thuong Kon Tum plant will be the company’s growth momentum in the future. The company is negotiating with EVN and expects to apply a new price in 2022. The new contract price and full year utilization from the Thuong Kon Tum plant in 2022 will boost
HDB – Credit growth is the key
11-10-2021
: HDB
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- Contrary to the first year-half, credit growth was resilient in the third quarter while deposit growth slowed down. HDB has applied for a significant raise in credit growth quota in the fourth quarter, at over 25% in comparison to about 10% currently.
- We maintain our conservative view on the provision buffer. However, we think the provisioning level will be sustained in the short-term despite the social distancing impact.
- In spite of the decline in restructured debt at the end of August compared to the end of June 2021, we revise up our projections for credit costs for the 2021-2022 period. Hence, 2021-2022 PBTs are revised down, at VND 7,843 bn (USD 341 mn, +35% YoY) and VND 9,692 bn (USD 421 mn, +24% YoY), decreasing -3% and -6% respectively from the prior estimations. 2021 book value per share is at VND 14,290 while that of mid-2022 is VND 16,070. Combined with the sector’s decreasing growth momentum, we lower the target price by -2% to VND 28,800/share. This translates to an upside of 12% from the closing price of October 11, 2021 and an ACCUMULATE recommendation.
KDH – 2022-2023 would be tipping point
08-10-2021
:
: Real Estate
: Tran Hoang The Kiet
Tags:
- In Q2/2021, KDH achieved revenue of VND 1,112 Bn (or USD 49 Mn, +42% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 267 Bn (or USD 12 Mn, +5% YoY). For 1H 2021, KDH recorded revenue of VND 1,948 Bn (or USD 86 Mn, +31% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 472 Bn (or USD 21 Mn, +16% YoY).
- Management expects to fully deliver Lovera Vista – key projects in 2021 units in Q4 2021 given the strict lockdown in HCMC, impacting the handover progress. Per managament, KDH has delivered 36% of total 1,310 units in this project.
- We maintain our forecasts for 2021F/22F, with a NPAT-MI growth rate of +5% YoY/23% YoY, equivalent to respective EPS of VND 1,870/VND 2,302. We adjust our target price to VND 43,400/share by factoring the number of new shares outstanding when KDH sold treasury shares in September 2021, equivalent to NEUTRAL
PGI – High profit growth will not be maintained in 2022
07-10-2021
: PGI
: Insurance
: Tam Pham
Tags:
- 9M2021 gross written premium fell because of the pandemic. PBT surged 52% YoY owing to the sharper drop of health insurance sales, the product that has the highest expense ratio.
- 2021 combined ratio is expected to keep improving like in 1H, meaning the insurance business is more profitable. However, we do not expect that to be maintained next year, as total sales will recover following the economic recovery and health insurance sales will rise from the low base of 2021.
- We forecast sales and PBT for 2021 to be VND 3,336 bn (USD 145 mn, -5.3% YoY) and VND 294 bn (USD 12.7 mn, +35.7% YoY). For 2022, sales and PBT will be VND 3,595 (USD 156 mn, +7.8% YoY) and VND 229 bn (USD 10 mn, -21.7% YoY). Equivalent EPS for 2021 and 2022 are VND 2,253/share and VND 1,781/share, respectively. P/B forward for 2021 and 2022 are 1.4x and 1.3x.
- We raise our target price from VND 22,800/share to VND 27,000/share. This translates to a NEUTRAL recommendation based on the closing price of October 7, 2021 and a cash dividend of VND 500/share within the next 12 months. Market price may rise in the short-term when Q3 results are announced but the 2022 performance is not attractive for a higher valuation. Current PBR is 1.5x, higher than the average of 1.2x of the last three years.
Nutrition segment – The rural market to lead the growth from FY2022
06-10-2021
:
:
: Toan Dao
Tags:
- Spending value of dairy products grew 13% and 14% in the urban and rural areas, respectively, which we attributed to the change in consumer spending behavior amid social distancing. Liquid milk, yogurt, sweetened condensed milk, milk powder and fruity milk achieved the highest YoY and QoQ growth.
- The rural market will become the key region driven by the fact that it remains a low spending value per household.
