Banking sector – Update on the banking system’s liquidity and credit growth

• The recent rally of interbank interest rates does reflect a less abundant liquidity. We expect the tension to be relieved in the third quarter when the USD forward contracts expire and the growth momentum of deposit is normalized.
• The private commercial banks are experiencing robust growth in credit, reaching their initial limits in the second quarter. Meanwhile, credit growth of several state-owned banks has lagged. LDR constraint might be a cause.
• Based on the expectations of the pandemic’s impact and timing of the quota lift approval, we forecast that large private banks will achieve robust credit growth in 2Q2021, led by TCB.

Vietnam equities outperform so far in 2021

Vietnamese equities are up to a good 2021, outperforming Asia so far year-to-date (Figure 1).The VN Index is up 20%, better than most Asian markets. Only Taiwan comes close to that, up 16%.

One a one-year basis India is still the best performing market (+60%) followed by Korea and Vietnam.

HDG – Expect for sale launch at Charm Villas and three power plants to come online in Q3 2021

• Real estate: Ha Do Charm Villa recorded positive pre-sale performance with 95% take-up rate (165/174 units) after two pre-sale events in Dec 2020 and Jan 2021. HDG will launch the next sale event in Q3 2021 (may be adjusted based on the Covid-19 situation). In 2021, this project is expected to contribute from VND 1,500 Bn – VND 1,900 Bn revenue for HDG.
• Power: In 5M 2021, three hydro power plants (Za Hung, Nam Pong and Nhan Hac) provided 119 Mn kWh (+70% YoY) with estimated revenue of VND 285 Bn (+58% YoY). For solar energy segment, HDG supplied 77 kWh with estimated revenue of VND 169 Bn (completed 56% of FY2021). In Q3 2021, three power plants include Song Tranh 4, Dak Mi 2 and 7A to come online and are expected to generate VND 374 Bn revenue in 2021.
• 2021 guideline: In 2021, HDG targets to reach net revenue of VND 4,863 Bn (-3% YoY) and flat NPAT of VND 1,254 Bn (+0% YoY). For the revenue contribution, Real estate and Energy will occupy 55% and 25%, respectively. As of Q1 2021, HDG completed 28% target on revenue and 32% of profit target. We are reviewing our target price for HDG.

PGV – AGM Update

• In 2021, PGV’s parent company planned to provide 29,654 Mn kWh (-5% YoY) and its revenue and NPAT to be VND Bn 39,791 (or USD 1.7 Bn, +2% YoY) and VND Bn 1,311 (or USD 57 Mn, -23% YoY), respectively.
• The company approved to pay a dividend of 10% for 2020 (5% face value by cash per share, remaining by stock). This ratio for 2021 is planned to be 7%.
• PGV is going to move from UPCoM to HSX in 2021 and EVN will divest in the period from 2022 – 2025.

During 2020, PGV provided 33,254 Mn kWh, accounting for 14% of total national electricity volume. Coal thermal plants generated 45.3% due to low mobilized volume from gas-fired in 2020. Gas-fired thermal plants ranked second with 42.5%, and the remaining was hydropower with 12.1%. Solar power just was negligible. Revenue and NPAT were VND 40,367 Bn (or USD 1,755 Mn) and VND 2.670 Bn (or USD 116 Mn), respectively.

DPR – Land compensation money may help increase future income

DPR's 1Q2021 results were positive thanks to the improvement of the rubber segment. However, the revenue of the rubber segment in 2021 will be likely to decrease compared to the 2020 revenue because the company plans to reduce its rubber purchase from other companies. In case the company can legally book the land compensation money of VND 317 billion this year, it will improve the results in 2021. Accordingly, the revenue of parent company and the consolidated PAT are expected to be VND 1,075 billion and VND 411 billion, respectively. In the long term, we have a positive view on the growth of DPR due to (1) the abundant IP land bank (797 hectares) is sufficient to lease in the next 16-22 years; (2) the compensation money from the handover of 2,000 hectares of land.

MSN – Solid steps to develop the Point of Life consumer ecosystem

• We view that Alibaba investment in The CrownX is a long-term key addition for VinCommerce’s business model to build a leading online grocery platform, thanks to massive growth potential of online grocery in Vietnam and the co-operation with Alibaba to promote faster the completion of online platform.
• Phuc Long Kiosk, strategic collaboration model between Masan Group and Phuc Long, to transform The CrownX into a one-stop shop concept.
• In FY2021, we estimate Masan Group to reach VND 95,938 Bn revenue (+24% YoY) and VND 2,010 Bn NPAT post-MI (+63% YoY). Strong earning recovery of Masan Group is backed by +17% NPAT growth of Masan Consumer and +43% YoY NPAT growth of Masan MEATLife, while VinCommerce will record smaller net loss after tax. We recommend BUY for MSN share at our target price (TP) of VND 136,000, equivalent to expected return of 27% from Jun 01^st 2021 market price.

Real estate update for Binh Tan District, HCMC

• Binh Tan District has promising prospects given its large area, crowded population, and strategic location in the west of Ho Chi Minh City.
• We consider Binh Tan as a potential real estate market based on four main pillars: the apartment price is still lower than other districts, dense population leads to great demand for real estate, large land bank for residential development, and infrastructure is being developed rapidly (Aeon Mall Binh Tan, Metro 3A, Metro 6, etc.)
• Prestigious real estate developers such as Khang Dien, Nam Long, Hung Thinh are actively focusing on the Binh Tan market with many projects, namely Khang Dien Binh Tan, Khang Dien Tan Tao, Akari City, etc.

MWG 4M-2021 Results: Last year’s low base supported growth rate

• TGDD & DMX accumulated revenue of approx. VND32.4Tn (USD1.4Bn), posting 4% YoY mainly on the back of low comparative base in last year’s April when social distancing order hit its physical stores.
• BHX accumulated revenue maintained its robust growth of 31% YoY, owing to significant contribution from mid-2020 new stores. Estimated sales per store in April improved by 7% MoM to VND1.2Bn (USD52,000).
• 15-day of social distancing in HCMC, which requires closure of electronics stores, will definitely hurt TGDD and DMX sales but we believe the magnitude will not be as severe as last year’s April.
• Ongoing pandemic wave induced by rapidly-spread Covid variant poses larger-than-expected downside risk to our forecast. While current forecasts and the TP of VND 184,000 are under review for this risk, upside potential, in our view, from BHX’s labor productivity enhancement initiative will be the noteworthy catalyst going forward.

HSG – Positive export activities in 2H/FY2020-2021

HSG’s export activities are likely to be more positive as the company has enough orders for production until September. Export gross margins could be stable in 3Q/FY2020-2021 as HRC prices are still in an uptrend in Europe and the US, which maintain a large gap with prices in Vietnam. In domestic market, steel prices have increased at a higher pace compared to 2Q/FY2020-2021. This can affect positively to HSG’s gross margin. We forecast that HSG will earn roughly VND 1,400 billion in 3Q and roughly VND 3,550 billion for the whole year, increasing by 210% YoY. We recommend investors Accumulate this stock with a target price of VND 46,000/share.

DPM – Probably an outstanding growth in 2Q performance

• Not much growth momentum in the long term but DPM can maintain a stable cash dividend of around VND1,000/share, equivalent to a dividend yield of 5.3% at the closing price on May 26, 2021. The target price one year out is VND26,100/share. Cash dividend is expected to be VND 1,700/share in the next 12 months. Upside of 48%, corresponding to a BUY.

US Interest Rate Watch: Is Fed "Tapering" Imminent?

US Interest Rate Watch: Is Fed "Tapering" Imminent?