Starting the year well with strong growth in exports
15-02-2022
15-02-2022:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- Trade surplus continued at the start of 2022.
- Non-electronic domestic exports took the lead in Jan 2022.
- Imports of consumer goods contracted for the first time in 11 months.
- Escalating external risks might act as drags on the exports outlook.
13 FPT – 2021 Results Showed Solid Performance in Every Core Business Pillars
14-02-2022
: FPT
: Retailing
: Tung Do
Tags:
- 2021 revenue and PBT respectively posted VND 35.7 trillion (+19.5% YoY) and VND 6.3 trillion (+20.4% YoY), accomplishing 100% and 97% of our full-year forecast.
- Tech sector revenue grew by 23% YoY to VND 20.7 trillion, while PBT jumped by 25% YoY to VND 2.8 trillion. In which, global IT services recorded a jump of +21%YoY/+23% YoY in Revenue/PBT, largely fueled by robust DX demand (+72% YoY in revenue) and US market (+52% YoY in revenue). At the same time, domestic IT services PBT’s growth rate increased by 29% YoY/34% YoY in Revenue/PBT, slightly decelerated compared to 9M 2021 figures, driven by large contracts with corporates in Banking, Real estate, Manufacturing and Government sectors. Additionally, IT services segment experienced a record high in signed revenue in 2021.
- FPT shared guidance for 2022 with revenue/PBT jumping by 19% YoY/20% YoY vs our current forecasts for 2022F: revenue/PBT of VND 44 trillion (+23% YoY)/VND 8.2 trillion (+29% YoY). Current TP of of VND 118,400 are under review.
PDR – Astral City project is the main pillar for high growth in 2022
11-02-2022
: PDR
: Real Estate
: Tran Hoang The Kiet
Tags:
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- From our view, the residential real estate is still a key pillar for PDR during 2021 – 2023 with projects in Binh Duong, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Binh Dinh. The expansion plan into Industrials Parks, Logistics is longer term. We will need to observe for evaluation from further progress in upcoming times. Therefore, we recommend to OBSERVE the stock.
PVD - 4Q2021 result update
10-02-2022
: PVD
:
: Vu Tran
Tags:
- Revenue to reach VND 1,334 bn in 4Q2021, up 61.9% YoY. The drilling segment was the main growth driver with revenue of VND720 bn, up 65.7% YoY.
- Gross profit margin to improve to 10.2% (in Q4/2021) from 4.4% (in 4Q2020), pushing gross profit up 3.8x.
- Joint venture profits and other profits both decreased. So, 4Q2021 PBT was only VND54 bn, up 3.8% YoY.
- In 2022, PVD's ring utilization rate is forecasted to be better, which will improve its core profit. However, the current valuation is not very attractive in our opinion. We still maintain our recommendation to SELL PVD stock with a target price of 19,900 VND/share.
- For 2022, we forecast that total revenue and NPATMI will reach VND5,905 bn, up 37.1% YoY and VND179 bn, up 229.4% YoY, respectively. In long term, we expect that the kicking off major projects like Block B will be the main catalyst for PVD, then improving the PVD’s valuation.
LHG – Industrial park segment is the growth driver in 2022
09-02-2022
: LHG
: Real Estate
: Hoang Minh Thang
Tags:
- In Q4 2021, LHG's revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 64bn (-65% yoy) and VND 28bn (-63% yoy) due to LHG recognized zero industrial park (IP) land sale.
- In 2021, LHG recorded revenue and NPAT-MI of VND 782bn (+16% yoy) and VND 295bn (+49% yoy), in line with our forecast. The IP segment brought strong growth to LHG in H1 2021, with IP land sale reaching 12 hectares (+20% yoy) and the rent reaching 200 USD per sqm (+5% yoy).
- In 2022, the IP land demand will the growth of the IP segment, as well as LHG’s revenue and earnings growths in total. As a result, revenue and NPAT-MI are expected to grow strongly in 2022, estimated at VND 907 bn (+17%) and VND 369bn (+28%), which translates to an equivalent EPS of VND 6,928 per share. The current target price of LHG is VND 62,300 per share, and this will be updated in the upcoming report as the IP lease price is rising faster than we expected. Compared to the closing price on Feb 8th 2022, LHG has 2022 forward PE valuation of 7.3, and forward PB valuation at 1.6.
Ton Dong A – 2022 sales can be flat, new growth engine can come in 2023
08-02-2022
:
: Materials
: Tu Pham
Tags:
- 2021 results were strong as NPAT reached VND 1,200 bn, increasing by 320% YoY. The high demand from North American and European markets boosted export volume to grow by 137% YoY to 496,000 tons and total selling volume increased by 20% YoY, reaching 800,000 tons. The gross margin improved from 7.4% in 2020 to roughly 15% in 2021.
- For 2022, the company sets a selling volume target of 820,000 tons of products, increasing by 2.5% as its domestic selling volume is expected to grow by 40% YoY, but exporting activities can face more challenges.
- The company aims to keep the gross margin at roughly 12% in 2022, lower than that of roughly 15% in 2021, as the benefits from increasing steel prices and the disruption of the production chain are likely to fade.
- The 1st phase of Ba Ria – Vung Tau factory can operate in 1Q/2023 and increase the company’s design capacity by 47%. This can solve TDA’s obstacle as its utilization reached roughly 94% in 2021.
- 2021 NPAT is estimated to be VND 1,200 bn, equivalent to EPS of VND 10,500/share after the IPO. At minimum order price of VND 58,000/share, Ton Dong A’s 2021 PER is roughly 5.5 after the offering, which is higher compared to HSG’s (4.0x) and NKG’s (3.6x). The potential can come from the new factory, which allows the company to continue growing in 2023. However, we think there are also risks, such as potential safeguard duties or quotas in foreign markets.
Elevated inflation risks due to higher oil prices
07-02-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- Russia – Ukraine crisis is leading to a surge in oil prices.
- Elevated inflation risks due to higher oil prices.
- Oil at US$100 will be painful for Vietnam’s economy.
KDH – One-off gain supported the business results
28-01-2022
:
: Real Estate
: Tran Hoang The Kiet
Tags:
- In 2021, KDH recorded revenue and NPAT-MI of VND 3,738 bn (-18% YoY) and VND 1,202 bn (+4% YoY), respectively, owing to the handover of Safira (234 units), Lovera Vista (1,147 units) and Verosa Park (31 units) along with the consolidation gain from a land lot owned by Nguyen Thu Real Estate Development JSC in District 9.
- In Q4 2021, KDH handed over 101 units from Verosa Park (2 units) and Lovera Vista (99 units). For sale activity, KDH sold one unit in Lovera Vista and three units in Verosa Park. Moreover, KDH intends to open sale in Armena project in Q1 2022 (previously at Q4 2021). From our view, it is feasible as the construction progress of Armena is positive.
- In 2022F, we expect NPAT-MI growth of 2022 at 32% YoY thanks to the recognition of Armena and Clarita projects, along with sooner-than-expected revenue of Le Minh Xuan (expanded). The current target price is VND 56,000 is under review as we have not factored the value of newly acquired land lot of KDH in District 9.
TCB – 4Q21 earnings review: beating expectations slightly
27-01-2022
: TCB
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- 4Q21 earnings modestly beat our forecasts by 4% (VND 6.1 trillion versus VND 5.9 trillion in PBT) mainly due to robust NIM and strong NFI growth. As a result, TCB reported 2021 PBT at VND 23,238 bn (USD 1.0 bn, 47% YoY), exceeding our prior estimates of VND 23,010 bn).
- The extensive growth in 4Q21 and the whole year results came from high credit growth quota, NIM expansion, the rise of bancassurance, settlement and securities segments. Asset quality has been well maintained during the year in spite of the pandemic impact, leading to controlled credit costs and thereby, the resiliency of operation efficiency.
- We currently have a forward 2022 PBT forecast of VND 29,357 bn (USD 1.3 bn, 26% YoY). The 2022 book value per share is projected at VND 32,746. We are revising the forecasts and currently have a target price of VND 71,000/share and a BUY This translates to an upside of 39% from the closing price of January 27, 2022.
STK – 2021 results: Record breaking NPAT
26-01-2022
: STK
:
: Loan Nguyen
Tags:
- In 4Q-FY21, despite declining revenue by 13% YoY, NPAT grew 10% YoY due to tax incentives.
- STK released positive 2021 results with revenue of VND 2,042 Bn (or USD 89 Mn, +16% YoY) and NPAT of VND 278 Bn (or USD 12 Mn, +94% YoY), completing 87% and 112% of the guidance, respectively.
- In 2022, we forecast revenue and NPAT to reach VND 2,659 (or USD 116 Bn, +30% YoY) and VND 358 Bn (or USD 16 Mn, +29% YoY), respectively. Key catalysts for 2022 earnings growth are: (1) sales volume and selling price will increase significantly due to the recovery of global fashion demand and the anti-dumping tax on China’s polyester filament yarn to help STK regain its market share; (2) the recovery of local garment manufacturers to boost demand for recycled yarn, thereby shifting revenue towards recycled yarn.
- We currently maintain our target price of VND 67,000 for STK, implying an expected return of 30% in a one-year investment horizon.
PET – Setting a high sales target for Apple products while potentially expanding brand portfolio with Xiaomi in 2022
25-01-2022
: PET
:
: Tung Do
Tags:
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A look at food prices through the futures market
25-01-2022
:
:
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:
- Food prices are up since December
- In real terms, global food prices are at their highest level since 1975
- The end is not in sight.
