17-04-2026VNINDEX1817.17-2.66-0.15% HNXIndex2603.511.37% UPCOM128.370.150.12% VN301988.118.920.45% VN1001907.34-0.74-0.04% HNX30546.57-1.71-0.31% VNXALL2968.74-1.16-0.04% VNX503330.930.390.01% VNMID2235.94-2.50-0.11% VNSML1417.220.950.07% China’s 2H22 economic outlook
25-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- China's Q2/2022 economic growth is slower than expected.
- Outlook for 2H22: Slow recovery.
- Some implications for Vietnam.
Too early for the long-term bull case: Will the nickel price keep stay high?
22-07-2022
:
: Chemicals
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- A roller coaster ride for nickel in 2022 to reach a 15-year high but it is expected to stabilize again in the longer term
- Rusia is the main provider of class I nickel mining while China is the largest player for refining
- Near-term demand is still dominated by stainless steel
- Hard to bet on a remained well-priced story of nickel in an evolving rapidly EV battery industry
PE ratios and valuations
21-07-2022
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: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:
- One dilemma faced by investors is not necessarily whether the ‘E’ is correctly priced in the P/E ratio but whether the long-term trend in ‘earnings growth’ is reflecting the ‘real GDP’.
- US nominal GDP is growing at its highest rate in the past twenty-five years.
Banking sector – Update on the money market
21-07-2022
:
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- The USD/VND exchange rate continued to appreciate due to the USD strength in the international markets and local USD shortage caused by robust demand. The exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate this week as a result of the steady demand of FDI enterprises and customers in the petroleum and steel industries.
- Despite the SBV’s effort in monitoring VND and supporting the USD liquidity via open market operations, USD funding in the past week was still lacking, thereby hindering the recovery potential of the swap rate gap.
CMG – Thanks to CMG's core businesses, revenue and profitability in 2021 grew significantly
20-07-2022
: CMG
: Software
: Cao Ngoc Quan
Tags:
- In FY 2021 (ending March 31st, 2022), CMG recorded impressive business results, revenue and PBT growth of 21% YoY and 27% YoY thanks to the high growth of the three main fields of business, respectively. In which, Technology and Solutions/Global Business/Telecommunication recorded PBT growth of 15% YoY/634% YoY/14% YoY, respectively.
- CMG’s target revenue and PBT grow 21% and 29%, respectively.
- CMG has already entered the segment of Education & Research after successfully M&A A Chau University (Hanoi) in February 2022.
Export growth will remain high in 3Q22 due to low base effects
19-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- Key export items grew by over 20% in 1H2022.
- Export growth will remain high in 3Q2022.
- The slowdown of commodity prices will support the trade balance in 2H2022.
AST – Quarterly earnings to turn positive after two years of the pandemic
18-07-2022
: AST
: Aviation
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The robust recovery of domestic air passenger has bolstered core earnings in Q2-2022, which is expected reach VND 10 Bn.
- Ramping up operation in international terminals, amid recovering international pax, should provide stronger earnings in 2H-2022.
- While we believe that the recovery of airports’ passenger traffic will boost earnings prospect going forward, current valuation is still unjustified with 2022F P/E (assuming that the company meets profit guidance) of 103x.
Banking sector – Looking back on the money market conditions in the first half
15-07-2022
:
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- In the first half of 2022, the divergence in monetary policies caused the USDVND interest rate differentials to widen and pushed the swap rate gap deeply in the negative zone since the end of May. This factor boosted the demand for USD and supported the uptrend of the exchange rate.
- The State Bank of Vietnam adjusted the method of selling foreign currencies three times in the first year-half in order to monitor the exchange rate in accordance with the complicated circumstances and peer pressure. We think that the State Bank will continue to intervene to raise the VND interbank rates soon while keeping the policy rates stable. However, we maintain our view of macro uncertainty over the next few months when another Fed’s rate hike is expected at the end of July.
VHC – 6M2022 revenue grew strongly
14-07-2022
: VHC
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
Tags:
- In 6M 2022, VHC released revenue of VND 7,496 Bn (or USD 325 Mn, +81% YoY), driven by the growth of all products. In which, fillet revenue rose 82% YoY to reach VND 4,955 Bn (or USD 215 Mn) driven by the strong increase of both selling prices and export volume. We expect 2Q 2022 NPAT-MI to reach VND 700 Bn (or USD 30 Mn), up 68% YoY and 28% QoQ.
- However, June 2022 revenue showed a negative growth of 30% MoM, mainly driven by a dramatic decline of US export revenue. Therefore, we are concerned that VHC's profit growth in 2H 2022 may decelerate compared to 1H 2022, which is mentioned in the previous report. Hence, there is no change in our previous forecast for 2022 with revenue and NPAT forecast of VND 14,596 Bn (or USD 634 Mn, +61% YoY) and VND 2,159 Bn (or USD 93 Mn, +96% YoY), respectively.
- The stock price has hit our target price of VND114,600 in June 2022. Considering that VHC's profit may decelerate in Q3/2022 compared to the previous quarter and 2023 profit may be lower than forecasted, we see the potential to revise the target price down.
Time to buy yields/sell bonds?
13-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:
- Crude oil prices briefly dipped below $100/ bbl during the week of July 5th.
- This led to a rally in equity prices and a drop in bond yields.
DPR – Outlook will be positive in 2H 2022
13-07-2022
: DPR
: Industrials, Real Estate
: Le Tu Quoc Hung
Tags:
- In the first 6 months, the rubber price still maintained its average of While output has not been much as the peak of harvesting season is expected to be in the 2nd half of the year. The rubber segment of Dong Phu will be stable because rubber prices are unlikely to return to the high level of 2021. This is due to the effect of China’s demand, which make up 70% of export sales, where is under strict lockdown (zero Covid policies) as the positive cases reversed to raise recently. Along with that, the production capacity dropped down significantly from 5,500 hectares to 4,800 hectares is also a driver to for DPR’s revenue drop in 2022.
- Bac Dong Phu industrial park (IP) expect to be filled up fully in 2022. In addition, the leasing price increased (up to 72USD/m2) will be a bright outlook, helping the profit margin for this segment to widen.
- In 2022, we estimate that the total revenue and net income of DPR will be VND 1,275 billion (+4,8%YoY) and VND 348 billion (-19.3% YoY) respectively. Correspondingly, EPS of 2022 will be VND 5,323. Based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation (SOTP), target price is expected to be 85,7000/share. Combined with cash dividend expected in the next 12 months of 3,000/share, expect the rate of return will be +33.8% (compared to the closing price of 07/12/2022).
VN-Index – Selling pressure significantly reduced
12-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- Compare with the last two bear market periods, the current liquidity change fell below the 18-19’ (43%) and 19-20’ (78%).
- According to our statistics, Individual investors, the major players in the market who accounted for 80% to 90% of the total market trading value were less active in selling with lower net selling value overtime as market witnessing a strong correction.
25-07-2022
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