Jewelry Market - Slow Growth Expected in the Coming Years
31-07-2024
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- After a slowdown from 2020 to 2022, the jewelry market has seen a modest recovery in 2023, following the macroeconomic rebound.
- We project the jewelry market to grow at an annual rate of 2.4% from 2023 to 2030. Although Vietnamese disposable income is forecasted to rise rapidly at a rate of 7.7% per year, we believe the spending ratio on jewelry/disposable income will decrease from 1.4% in 2023 to 1.0% in 2030. This is due to continued government regulation of the jewelry market, competition from attractive investment channels (such as stocks and real estate), and an aging population prioritizing health and welfare over beauty and social status.
NLG – Pre-sales show improvement in 2H2024
30-07-2024
: NLG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: NLG
- In Q2 2024, NPAT-MI improved compared to the previous quarter, reaching VND 144 billion (+19% YoY, compared to a loss in Q1 2024). This improvement is attributed to NLG's continued delivery of projects on schedule and revenue from the sale of a 25% stake in the Paragon Dai Phuoc project to a Japanese partner, generating financial gains of VND 230 billion. For the full year of 2024, we estimate that the revenue and NPAT-MI will be VND 7,389 billion (+132% YoY) and VND 453 billion (-6% YoY), respectively, primarily from the delivery of the Akari (Phase 2) and Nam Long 2 – Can Tho projects. The EPS for 2024 is forecast at VND 1,169.
- Sales in Q2 2024 amounted to VND 1,510 billion (+29% QoQ), coming from projects such as Akari, Waterpoint, and Mizuki, with a cumulative total for the first half of 2024 reaching VND 2,678 billion (+209% YoY, achieving 28% of the annual plan). Given the warming up of the real estate market, we expect sales to continue to rise in 2H2024 due to: 1/ affordable housing options to meet actual demand from the EhomeS Can Tho project, Can Tho land plots, and Ehome Southgate, which are expected to have good absorption rates; 2/ NLG's continued policy of supporting homebuyers; and 3/ sustained low interest rates.
- Based on the RNAV valuation method, we estimate NLG's fair value at VND 43,900/share, providing a 12-month expected total return of 6% compared to the closing price on July 30, 2024 (including a cash dividend of VND 500 per share). We recommend an ACCUMULATE rating for NLG.
Flat steel – Industrial steel set to grow
29-07-2024
: HPG, NKG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: GDA
- According to Market Research Future, the 2023 global flat steel market value reached USD 484bn, and it is expected to reach USD 817bn by 2032 (equivalent to a CAGR of 6% in the period 2024-2032). Rapid industrialization, widespread use of mechanical, automotive, and construction equipment, and increased infrastructure investment, are the key market drivers that are enhancing the market growth. In particular, the North American, Asian and European markets are the main consumer markets, where the manufacturing hub of automobiles, household appliances and machinery is concentrated.
- The Vietnamese flat steel market is still in the early stages of the development cycle, with: 1/ Input materials (HRC) still need to be imported, especially for high-quality steel grades; 2/ Domestic galvanized steel companies did not have flat steel grades for household appliances and industrial equipment (with higher profit margins). However, domestic manufacturers are beginning to realize the potential of this sector and have specific investment plans, including: 1/ Hoa Phat with Dung Quat Complex 02 (DQ02) with the development of high-quality steel grades; 2/ Some leading galvanized steel companies (NKG, GDA) are preparing to invest in large-scale flat steel factories and also diversify into industrial steel product segment
ACB – Robust credit growth and effective cost control have resulted in the exceeding-expectation Q2-2024 PBT growth
26-07-2024
: ACB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The consolidated profit before tax growth reached 16% YoY, exceeding the expectation of 6% YoY, largely driven by the growth in interest-earning assets (+23% YoY) and a reduction in provisioning expenses (-17% YoY), along with effective control of operating costs (-1% YoY).
- Credit growth at the parent bank reached 12.4%, outgrowing the industry's average of 6%, with growth rates among individual customers/SMEs/large corps at 12.3%/2.2%/37.6%, respectively.
- We forecast ACB's 2024 business results with TOI and PBT reaching VND 36 trillion (+10% YoY) and VND 22 trillion (+10% YoY), respectively.
- We maintain an ACCUMULATE recommendation for ACB with a target price of VND 27,400 per share, based on its superior credit growth capabilities, solid balance sheet, and industry-leading ROE.
Update on monetary market in July 2024
25-07-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Banking system liquidity was moderately stable in July.
- USDVND exchange rate cools down in the short term.
- Credit growth reached the target but was uneven; NPL continued to increase.
Seafood Industry – Outlook for the Second Half of 2024
24-07-2024
: VHC, FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- In 1H2024, the seafood industry is recovering with a slight increase of 6.8% YoY due to improved demand. The growth in the shrimp and pangasius sectors is primarily due to increased production, while selling prices remain lower than the same period last year due to intense competition and weak market demand. In the 2H2024, we expect the seafood industry to continue the growth trend from 1H2024, with recovery in the US and Japan markets being more prominent than in other markets.
- The pangasius sector increased slightly by 5% YoY in 1H2024 due to a 17% YoY increase in production. The outlook for 2H2024 focuses on increased production levels due to more competitive pangasius prices compared to other fish species. Pangasius prices are expected to gradually increase in the second half of 2024 across all markets due to the peak season; however, the increase will not be strong due to the weak economic conditions in various countries and expectations of improvement in 2025 after the Fed is projected to cut interest rates in September.
- The shrimp sector also saw a slight increase of 6% YoY in 1H2024, but the export value of white shrimp only increased by 3% YoY to $1.1 billion, while tiger shrimp reached $199 million (-10% YoY). The growth outlook for 2H2024 also focuses on increased production levels due to high competition with Ecuador and India. Shrimp prices are expected to gradually rise in various markets, with the Japanese market expected to improve sooner due to (1) a stronger Yen/USD exchange rate as the Fed cuts interest rates and (2) lower price competition.
- Gross margins are expected to increase in 2H2024 for companies with a high degree of self-sufficiency in shrimp/raw fish materials such as VHC, ANV, and FMC, due to low input agricultural costs while selling prices are expected to gradually increase in most markets. Additionally, the expected stability of raw fish/shrimp prices in 2H2024 will also support the gross margins of companies with lower self-sufficiency.
- International shipping costs to major markets are expected to decrease in 2H2024 due to the arrival of new ships from Vietnamese shipping companies, which will help improve net margins for seafood exporters selling at CFR prices or improve selling prices for exporters selling at FOB prices (due to reduced cost sharing with buyers) in 2H2024.
Vietnam automobiles market - Looking towards 2H2024 with multiple concerns
23-07-2024
: HAX
: Automobiles
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- In 6M-2024, Vietnam's automobiles sales decreased by -9.9% YoY, in line with our previous forecast of declining vehicle consumption in the early months of the year.
- Moving into the H2-2024, we anticipate a rebound in the automobiles sector from H1-2024 amid an economic recovery and “the seasonal consumption” for automobile. However, the YoY growth is unlikely to meet initial expectations due to the potential failure of the proposed 50% reduction in registration fees.
- In the long run, the automobiles industry holds significant room growth potential due to low vehicle ownership rates among the population as theorical. However, we believe the actual growth prospects for this sector are not as substantial as expected, given inadequate transportation infrastructure and high vehicle prices (stemming from low localization rates and bulky tax/fee structures).
- Longstanding automakers in Vietnam (Toyota, Hyundai, Mazda...) are increasingly facing challenges in an expanding competitive landscape with the entry of numerous new brands (MG, Lexus, Ford...). In terms of car dealers (HAX, CTF...), they are striving to diversify their brand portfolios to seek new growth drivers rather than relying solely on a single brand
DPPA mechanism: Basis for generation companies to resume investments in renewable energy
22-07-2024
: REE, GEG
: Utilities
: Thang Hoang
Tags:
- Decree 80/2024/NĐ-CP which allows Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DPPA) between renewable energy generation companies (RE gencos) and buyers was signed and became effective on July 3rd, 2024. We believe DPPA is the necessary regulatory basis to resume investments for transitional RE projects and new RE projects without solely relying on EVN.
- We view DPPA as a pilot for Vietnam Wholesale Electricity Market (VWEM) and an important step in liberalizing Vietnam’s electricity market. Regarding intermediaries, DPPA mechanism will create opprtuinities for industrial parks to participate when their customers have total electricity consumption over 200,000 kWh per month. As for electricity sellers, we believe RE gencos that have transitional projects (GEG) or new projects to be launched (REE) will be the main benificiaries of the mechanism.
PVS – “A rising tide lifts all boats”
19-07-2024
: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Ngan Le
Tags: PVS
- As mentioned in our previous report, we believe that Vietnam's oil and gas industry is returning to its "golden age" (similar to the 2011-2015 period) thanks to high oil prices being sustained for a sufficiently long period to act as a catalyst for new projects. Unlocking oil and gas projects not only brings substantial value to the M&C backlog, but also has a positive impact on other service segments of PVS. As a result, NPAT-MI grew by 40% YoY in 1Q2024 despite flat revenue compared to the same period last year. For 2Q2024, we estimate PBT at VND 232 bn (-21% YoY).
- 2024 serves as a pivotal year for PVS as the company begins to implement several key projects in the industry, notably Block B, Su Tu Trang, and Lac Da Vang. Typically, in the first year of a project, the company usually makes progress on surveys, designs, and equipment procurement. Therefore, we believe that the disbursement as well as the main tasks will be concentrated in 2025 and 2026.
- CARG 2024 – 2026 of NPAT-MI forecast reaches 8%, while those in consecutive 5 previous years (2019 – 2023) was only 1%. Currently, PVS is trading at a P/E of 22x, higher than the 5-year average of 17x. We believe that this price reflects most of the company’s growth potential from large projects. We have set a target price for PVS at VND 42,400/share based on the FCFF and P/E methods, corresponding to a NEUTRAL recommendation for this stock
SCS –Growth momentum expected to continue into the second half of 2024
18-07-2024
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: SCS
- In Q2-FY24, international and domestic cargo volumes were 53 thousand tons (+61% YoY) and 17 thousand tons (+25% YoY), respectively. Revenue and NPATMI reached VND 264 bn (+53% YoY) and VND 190 bn (+47% YoY), respectively.
- In the accumulated 6M2024 periodd, international and domestic cargo volumes reached 96 thousand tons (+50% YoY) and 33 thousand tons (+24% YoY), respectively. Net revenue and NPATMI came at VND 477 bn (+43% YoY) and VND 337 bn (+39% YoY), respectively, completing 49%/51% of our projections.
- For 2024E, we maintain our projections for SCS's international and domestic cargo volumes at 192 thousand tons (+40% YoY) and 58 thousand tons (+10% YoY), respectively. Revenue and NPATMI are forecast at VND 974 bn (+38% YoY) and VND 659 bn (+32% YoY), respectively. The corresponding EPS is 6,256 VND.
- We set a target price for SCS at VND 97,800/share, which is 2% higher than the previous target price, following the adjustment to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC: 10%). Combined with a cash dividend of 5,000 VND in the next 12 months, the expected total return is 17%. We recommend ACCUMULATE.
KBC – Expect to record a positive net profit in Q2 2024, driven by the resumption of IP land handover
17-07-2024
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Hung Le
Tags:
- In Q2 2024, we estimate KBC's total revenue to reach VND 1,430 billion (USD 57 million; -44% YoY), with the net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders estimated at VND 473 billion (USD 19 million; -52% YoY). For the full year 2024, revenue and net profit attributable to parent company shareholders are projected to be VND 6,178 billion (USD 245 million) and VND 1,973 billion (USD 78 million), respectively, with the expectation that the Trang Cat transaction could be completed in the first half of 2025 instead. The corresponding EPS is VND 2,570.
- The Trang Cat project has made significant legal progress over the past year, with transaction signals beginning to emerge in Q1 2024. In light of the new legal context, we believe there is sufficient basis to provide a preliminary assessment of the project's prospects. We are maintaining our previous target price of VND 41,800 per share and will update the detailed assumptions in the latest update report. The expected return over the next 12 months is 47%, based on the closing price on July 16, 2024.
Real estate market update – Gradual recovery of supply in tier-I cities
16-07-2024
: KDH, NLG, HDG
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Real Estates
- For the first half of 2024 (1H24), according to CBRE's research department, the recovery trend of the real estate market in tier-I cities (Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City) continues, however mainly in the apartment segment, and there is a divergence between the two major markets. The Hanoi apartment market shows a clearer recovery, with 12,208 units successfully launched (+185% YoY), contributed by projects of well-known developers (Lumi Hanoi, Sola Park). The Ho Chi Minh City market is relatively quieter, with 1,741 units successfully launched (-31% YoY), contributed by projects such as Privia (KDH) and Eaton Park (Gamuda Land, high-end segment).
- For the second half of 2024, we expect that supply and absorption in tier-I cities will continue to drive the recovery, along with a clearer recovery in the Ho Chi Minh City market and surrounding areas, supported by: 1) more positive buyer sentiment as lending interest rates are expected to remain low and the Government introduces new legal policies to protect buyers and resolve issues for existing real estate projects; 2) Increased supply from developers.
- For the companies on our watchlist, we expect them to focus on launching key projects in the second half of 2024, including: 1/ KDH with the Foresta project (a joint venture with Keppel Land, formed from the Clarita and Emeria projects in Thu Duc City); 2/ NLG with the apartment project at block CC5 – Mizuki Park urban area and low-rise units at Waterpoint urban area; and 3/ HDG with low-rise products in Charm Villas – phase 03.
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