HPG- AGM on 22/03/2018: Medium-term Growth Motive is Small Scale Projects

On March 22^nd , HPG will hold its annual shareholders' meeting to pass resolutions on profit distribution, plan for fiscal year 2018 and update its operations. We think this is an important stage for Hoa Phat as it is carrying out many remarkable projects at the same time. In particular, the USD 2 billion steel complex in Dung Quat, Quang Ngai, is under construction and scheduled to start operation in Q3/2018 while the Mandarin Garden 2 apartment is being handed over to customers and a series of other agricultural projects are underway at the same time.

Overview of Chinese Outbound Tourism

China's outbound tourists are still less than 10% of the country's total population, and only 10% of the population hold the passports, which suggests huge potential in China’s outbound travel market. Vietnam, as a rising popular destination, should benefit greatly from it.

MWG: All eyes on Bach Hoa Xanh

MWG’s annual general meeting focused on answering investors’ questions on thegioididong’s recent decline and plans for Tran Anh as well as An Khang. More importantly, Bach Hoa Xanh is still the main subject as its success will decide MWG’s future growth.

Changes of global equity markets

• The MSCI World Index bottomed twice at around the 700 level in the past fifteen years. It is currently at around 2200 -see chart below.
• The first bottom occurred in March 2003, following a 2-year drop from the 1400 level. Valuations, bankruptcies and investors’ disillusions with the technology sector in general drove the index down from its peak in 2000.

HAX – Opportunities from Decree No. 116

Decree No.116 and Circular No. 03/2018/TT-BGTVT are aimed at limiting the number of imported cars by requiring the buyer to have a copy of the Vehicle Type Approval (VTA) certificates, which seems not to exist in many countries. In the first two months of 2018, the number of Completely Build-Up (CBU) imports contracted by 96%. Vehicles with less than 9 passenger seats saw a big fall, declining from 9,000 cars in the first two months of 2017 to only 40 cars during the same period so far in 2018.

PVD - Business Update

In 2017, PVD recorded VND3,902 bn in revenue, down 27.2% YoY due to a drop in drilling services as PVD V had no contribution. Meanwhile, NPAT decreased by 79.8% to VND26,1 bn. However, If excluding the revert from Science and Technology Fund, the company incurred a loss of VND479 bn in 2017

Overview on Insurance Sector 2018

Vietnam insurance market continues to record a double digit growth above 20% in 2017. This is the evidence showing that insurance sector benefits from economic growth fostering by strong investment in infrastructure and personal consumption.

In 2017, non-life insurance shares witnessed little positive movement while investors shifted their focus on life insurance share BVH. The fact that life segment surpassed the non-life one in terms of preimium growth in 2017 can partially explain this practice. Moreover, after growing hot in two previous years and facing a challening year 2017 with many natural disaters, shares on non-life insurers were not very attractive.

TCM - Wait for room-expanding issue to be solved

Investors are expecting a bright future for domestic textile manufacturers, especially Thanh Cong Group (HSX: TCM), who operates in a fully vertical value chain including yarn, fabric, and garment. As for TCM, we believe that benefits from the CPTPP in the short run are unclear.

Investment And Exchange Rate In Vietnam Under Impact Of US's New Tariff Barriers

US President Donald Trump's was able, his first political victory, on 1^st December 2017 to announce the reduction of the corporate income tax from 35% to 20%. In order to offset the losses of an estimated USD 1.4 trillion  over the next 10 years, Trump goes on to impose taxes on imports of washing machines and solar panels.

On 1^st March 2018, Trump announced the imposition of a tariff of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum. The US also threatened to increase the tax on car imports from the EU.

Concerned about a potential global trade war, we argue on the impact of Trump's new tax law in two ways: (1) investment and (2) exchange rate

US 10-yr bond yields going to 3.5% in 2018

• US 10-yr bond yields going to 3.5% in 2018.
• The ratio of US government debt to GDP reached 106% in 2017, creating risks for financial markets.
• Asset reallocation could cause disruption in 2018 as investors consider switching to/ from fixed income.

Review Total Output of the Electricity System in 2M 2018

Recent public data from EVN regarding total output of the electricity system in the first two months of 2018 showed positive signals from the beginning of the year.