10-04-2026VNINDEX175013.320.77% HNXIndex251.910.930.37% UPCOM127.38-0.12-0.09% VN301928.2313.220.69% VN1001856.7613.270.72% HNX30548.482.310.42% VNXALL2891.5318.850.66% VNX503238.4824.630.77% VNMID2242.649.200.41% VNSML1425.33-2.12-0.15% HDB – Lower-than-expected quota but positive surprise in asset quality
14-12-2021
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: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
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- After 11M2021, HDB reached approximately 13% credit growth. This is in line with the lower-than-expected granted credit quota. SBV is expected to approve for more credit growth in December 2021. We factor in a 20% credit growth for 2021, equivalent to another raise during the rest of the year.
- We revise down NIM estimates. Asset quality was slightly impacted in 3Q21. The NPL ratio rose and restructured loans decreased to the lowest level among our bank coverage. Combined with the guidance on provisioning policy, we revise down the forecasts on credit cost. 2021-2022 PBTs are adjusted upward to VND 8.0 trillion (USD 346 mn, +37% YoY) and VND 10.3 trillion (USD 448 mn, +29% YoY).
- We maintain our cautious view on the provisioning policy and its buffer. 2021-2022 book values per share are at VND 14,343 and VND 18,128 respectively. We expect HDB to regain growth momentum in the next few quarters thanks to a low base effect and easing pressure on credit cost margin. We increase the target price by 11% to VND 32,000/share. This translates to an upside of 6% from the closing price of December 14, 2021 and an ACCUMULATE recommendation.
VPB – Many catalysts for NIM improvement in coming quarters
13-12-2021
: VPB
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: Tam Pham
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- In Q3, mother bank performed resiliently while FE Credit struggled with a loss.
- Small business and low-income customers will recover more slowly than other groups, causing adjustments in our expectations for NIM and credit costs at both the parent bank and FE Credit. The revised forecast includes new factors that could help the mother bank improve its NIM margin in the coming quarters, including profit from partly divestment at FE Credit and the preferential syndicated loans received in October-end while the international bonds issued in 2019 with high interest rate will mature in 2022.
- 2021 consolidated PBT is expected to come at VND 17,181 bn (+32%), with FE Credit PBT VND 1,136 bn (-69%). In 2022, consolidated PBT is expected to come at VND 21,874 bn (+27%), with FE Credit PBT VND 2,518 bn (+121%). The revised book value per share figures are VND 15,846 for 2021 and VND 19,255 for 2022.
- The target price is adjusted from VND 37,200/share to VND 42,800/share. Based on the closing price as of December 12th, 2021, we recommend to BUY VPB with a total return of 21%.
VSC – Earnings Growth to Rely Mostly on Streamlining Costs
10-12-2021
: VSC
: Seaports
: Thu Anh Tran
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- In Oct 2021, VSC’s revenue was VND 156 Bn, up 13.8% YoY and PBT 45 Bn, growing by 42% YoY. 10M 2021 revenue and PBT respectively amounted to VND 1,541 Bn (+ 12.7% YoY) and VND 403 Bn (+ 48.6% YoY).
- We attribute the solid growth of PBT to streamlining operating costs through scaling down outsourcing activities, which, we believe, was better managed following the participation of new major shareholder group recently.
- We expect continued profit margin expansion to drive NPAT to reach VND 355 Bn (+47.6% YoY)/ VND 410 Bn (+17.5% YoY) in 2021F/22F. However, limited headroom in capacity of VIP Green and Green Port and the likelihood of incurring loss from VIMC Dinh Vu in the early phase of operation remain hindrances for earning growth with 3Y CAGR 2021F-24F projected to be at 6%.
DBD – Waiting for strong growth in 2023
09-12-2021
: DBD
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Tu Pham
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- Revenue and PBT in 9M were VND 1,154 bn (USD 50.6 mn, -5.1% YoY) and VND 168 bn (USD 7.4 mn, +16% YoY), completing 79% and 93% of annual plans, respectively. DBD’s revenue increased by 99% in 3Q mainly as medical equipment sales grew strongly.
- All key product categories kept growing strongly in 9M2021. Specifically: the hemodialysis fluid revenue increased by 20% YoY to VND 98 bn (USD 4.3 mn), the anti-cancer medicine revenue increased by 46% YoY to VND 144 bn (USD 6.3 mn).
- The company can set “safety plans” for 2022 with a target revenue of VND 1,650 bn (+5.8% YoY), PBT of VND 215 bn (+ 7.5%-10.3% YoY).
- In the OTC channel, DBD has been boosting its presence in a larger number of retailers. The number of retailers to increase from roughly 8,000 in 2020 to 13,717 in 10M2021.
Many advantages to support 2022 shrimp exports
08-12-2021
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: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
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- Vietnam’s shrimp export value grew 3% YoY in 11M-2021.
- We expect shrimp exports to the US and the EU markets to continue maintaining their growth momentum in 2022 due to (1) high demand for shrimp after economies reopening, (2) increasing consumer’s appetite for deeply processed shrimp products which is Vietnam’s competitive advantage, and (3) EVFTA will facilitate shrimp exports to the EU.
- The Department of Commerce issued the final results of the 15th administrative review of the anti-dumping duty order on frozen warm-water shrimp from India by fixing an anti-dumping duty rate of 7.15%, higher than a 3.06% level by the 14th administrative review.
- Cooling-down freight costs will possibly bolster companies’ earnings to rebound in 2022.
FPT 10M 2021 Business Results Update: Profit growth normalized post lockdown
07-12-2021
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: Retailing
: Tung Do
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- FPT posted 10M 2021 business results, in which net sales and PBT grew by 19% YoY and 20% YoY, respectively, to VND 28,215 bn and VND 5,206 bn. These results have accomplished 82%/79% of our full-year revenue/PBT forecasts, whichwere rather in line with our expectation.
- In terms of revenue, the IT sector continued to lead growth, jumping by 25% YoY. The Telecom sector gathered pace following single-digit growth amid social distancing months, posting a 10% YoY growth in October alone and 11% in10M 2021. Education & Investments maintained healthy growth at 24%.
- 10M 2021 PBT growth of IT/Telecommunications/Education & Investments sectors reached 29% YoY/20% YoY/0% YoY.
- We maintain our 2021F/22F forecasts and target price for FPT of VND 108,800, reiterating ACCUMULATE recommendation.
KDH – Capturing the price surge in the HCMC
06-12-2021
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Tran Hoang The Kiet
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- In 9M 2021, KDH recorded revenue and NPAT-MI of VND 3,148 bn (-3% YoY) and VND 788 bn (+2% YoY), respectively, owing to the handover of Safira (234 units), Lovera Vista (1,048 units) and Verosa Park (29 units). Meanwhile, sales activity was strongly hit in Q3 2021 given the Covid-19 stringent lockdowns in HCMC from July to end of September. As a result, KDH only sold two units at Verosa Park.
- For Q4 2021, we expect revenue and profit to reach VND 334 Bn (-72% YoY) and VND 118 Bn (-69% YoY), respectively. The result decreased significantly when KDH had few units to deliver in Q4 2021 as they mostly handed over units of Lovera Vista in Q3 2021 (580 units) and Q2 2021 (468 units). Regarding sale activity, KDH will launch a soft sale event in the Armena project with few units. For FY 2021, we forecast that KDH will achieve revenue of VND 3,481 bn (-23% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 924 bn (-20% YoY).
- In 2022F, we expect strong NPAT-MI growth of 2022 at 72% YoY thanks to the recognition of Armena and Clarita projects, along with sooner-than-expected revenue of Le Minh Xuan (expanded). From our view, KDH is the main player benefitting from the price surge in the HCMC market amid the supply stagnant in this area. The target price will be updated in the Result report in December.
F&B sector - Key behavioral changes in household spending during lockdown periods
03-12-2021
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: Toan Dao
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- Consumer confidence is still low versus normal level with 54% of households facing financial problems and more than 50% of households with income lower than 17 million VND (736 USD) witnessing rising financial difficulty.
- Consumers will continue to rationalize their spending by understanding the role of categories and ability to command pricing, leading to the shift of consumer behavior to value offer and focusing more on price factor and products on sale.
- FMCG demand to keep growing in the new normal to serve home eating, led by (1) the more importance of home life, (2) more F&B companies trying to shift products toward home eating and (3) food delivery to develop on a continuous increased adoption rate in Vietnam.
QTP – Favorable factors to enhance earnings in the medium term
02-12-2021
: QTP
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
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- Volume in 3Q2021 is estimated to be 1.6 bn kWh, +34%YoY. This higher volume than last year is due to favorable hydrological condition in the North. The draught has come and the thermal group will achieve a high mobilization rate.
- In 3Q2021, revenue was VND 1,973 bn (or USD 86 mn), -20%QoQ and +13% YoY. NPAT was VND 86 bn (or USD 3.7 mn) while that in 3Q2020 was a loss. Earnings grew mostly thanks to a decline in depreciation expenses.
- Longer term, earnings are expected to grow thanks to a decline in expenses and high mobilization from thermal plants in later years. This time is considered to be a turning point between a harsh year in 2021 and a brighter outlook in later years.
- The company pays attention to paying dividends. It will maintain its dividend payment policy at 10% per par as of 2020.
DPR – Expect abnormal income in Q4 2021 but stable results in 2022
01-12-2021
: DPR
: Real Estate
: Hoang Minh Thang
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- 9M 2021 revenue reached VND 727 billion and NPAT-MI was VND 161 billion (+23% yoy). We forecast DPR to record NPAT-MI of 184 billion in Q4 (+142% yoy) and 345 billion in 2021 (+94% yoy) respectively. The sharp increase in earnings is attributed to non-core earnings from the handover of 200 hectares of land, which contributed VND160 billion to NPAT-MI). Growth in revenue and NPAT-MI in 2022 is expected to slow down, estimated at VND1.241 billion (+2% yoy) and VND350 billion (+2%).
- DPR will increase its ownership in Dong Phu Dak Nong Rubber JSC (DPD) from 88% to 100% to complete the merger in 2021.
- Based on the sum-of-the-part valuation method (SOTP), we estimate the target price to be VND 88,000 per share. The new cash dividend is expected in the next 12 months at VND3,000 per share. The total expected profit is about 13.8% (compared to the closing price on November 30, 2021).
ASEAN Equity Markets
30-11-2021
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: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
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- Equity markets in ASEAN, except for Vietnam, have not done well versus developed markets.
- Energy prices are a drag on most emerging economies.
- Private equity deals. Much more in developed economies than in emerging markets.
Is inflation a risk for economic recovery?
29-11-2021
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: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
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- Inflation is running hot globally.
- Transitory vs. Persistent inflation.
- What is happening with Vietnam’s inflation right now?
14-12-2021
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