Ton Dong A – 2022 sales can be flat, new growth engine can come in 2023
08-02-2022
08-02-2022:
: Materials
: Tu Pham
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- 2021 results were strong as NPAT reached VND 1,200 bn, increasing by 320% YoY. The high demand from North American and European markets boosted export volume to grow by 137% YoY to 496,000 tons and total selling volume increased by 20% YoY, reaching 800,000 tons. The gross margin improved from 7.4% in 2020 to roughly 15% in 2021.
- For 2022, the company sets a selling volume target of 820,000 tons of products, increasing by 2.5% as its domestic selling volume is expected to grow by 40% YoY, but exporting activities can face more challenges.
- The company aims to keep the gross margin at roughly 12% in 2022, lower than that of roughly 15% in 2021, as the benefits from increasing steel prices and the disruption of the production chain are likely to fade.
- The 1st phase of Ba Ria – Vung Tau factory can operate in 1Q/2023 and increase the company’s design capacity by 47%. This can solve TDA’s obstacle as its utilization reached roughly 94% in 2021.
- 2021 NPAT is estimated to be VND 1,200 bn, equivalent to EPS of VND 10,500/share after the IPO. At minimum order price of VND 58,000/share, Ton Dong A’s 2021 PER is roughly 5.5 after the offering, which is higher compared to HSG’s (4.0x) and NKG’s (3.6x). The potential can come from the new factory, which allows the company to continue growing in 2023. However, we think there are also risks, such as potential safeguard duties or quotas in foreign markets.
16 Elevated inflation risks due to higher oil prices
07-02-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- Russia – Ukraine crisis is leading to a surge in oil prices.
- Elevated inflation risks due to higher oil prices.
- Oil at US$100 will be painful for Vietnam’s economy.
KDH – One-off gain supported the business results
28-01-2022
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: Real Estate
: Tran Hoang The Kiet
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- In 2021, KDH recorded revenue and NPAT-MI of VND 3,738 bn (-18% YoY) and VND 1,202 bn (+4% YoY), respectively, owing to the handover of Safira (234 units), Lovera Vista (1,147 units) and Verosa Park (31 units) along with the consolidation gain from a land lot owned by Nguyen Thu Real Estate Development JSC in District 9.
- In Q4 2021, KDH handed over 101 units from Verosa Park (2 units) and Lovera Vista (99 units). For sale activity, KDH sold one unit in Lovera Vista and three units in Verosa Park. Moreover, KDH intends to open sale in Armena project in Q1 2022 (previously at Q4 2021). From our view, it is feasible as the construction progress of Armena is positive.
- In 2022F, we expect NPAT-MI growth of 2022 at 32% YoY thanks to the recognition of Armena and Clarita projects, along with sooner-than-expected revenue of Le Minh Xuan (expanded). The current target price is VND 56,000 is under review as we have not factored the value of newly acquired land lot of KDH in District 9.
TCB – 4Q21 earnings review: beating expectations slightly
27-01-2022
: TCB
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
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- 4Q21 earnings modestly beat our forecasts by 4% (VND 6.1 trillion versus VND 5.9 trillion in PBT) mainly due to robust NIM and strong NFI growth. As a result, TCB reported 2021 PBT at VND 23,238 bn (USD 1.0 bn, 47% YoY), exceeding our prior estimates of VND 23,010 bn).
- The extensive growth in 4Q21 and the whole year results came from high credit growth quota, NIM expansion, the rise of bancassurance, settlement and securities segments. Asset quality has been well maintained during the year in spite of the pandemic impact, leading to controlled credit costs and thereby, the resiliency of operation efficiency.
- We currently have a forward 2022 PBT forecast of VND 29,357 bn (USD 1.3 bn, 26% YoY). The 2022 book value per share is projected at VND 32,746. We are revising the forecasts and currently have a target price of VND 71,000/share and a BUY This translates to an upside of 39% from the closing price of January 27, 2022.
STK – 2021 results: Record breaking NPAT
26-01-2022
: STK
:
: Loan Nguyen
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- In 4Q-FY21, despite declining revenue by 13% YoY, NPAT grew 10% YoY due to tax incentives.
- STK released positive 2021 results with revenue of VND 2,042 Bn (or USD 89 Mn, +16% YoY) and NPAT of VND 278 Bn (or USD 12 Mn, +94% YoY), completing 87% and 112% of the guidance, respectively.
- In 2022, we forecast revenue and NPAT to reach VND 2,659 (or USD 116 Bn, +30% YoY) and VND 358 Bn (or USD 16 Mn, +29% YoY), respectively. Key catalysts for 2022 earnings growth are: (1) sales volume and selling price will increase significantly due to the recovery of global fashion demand and the anti-dumping tax on China’s polyester filament yarn to help STK regain its market share; (2) the recovery of local garment manufacturers to boost demand for recycled yarn, thereby shifting revenue towards recycled yarn.
- We currently maintain our target price of VND 67,000 for STK, implying an expected return of 30% in a one-year investment horizon.
PET – Setting a high sales target for Apple products while potentially expanding brand portfolio with Xiaomi in 2022
25-01-2022
: PET
:
: Tung Do
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A look at food prices through the futures market
25-01-2022
:
:
: Bernard Lapointe
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- Food prices are up since December
- In real terms, global food prices are at their highest level since 1975
- The end is not in sight.
HND – Earnings doubled the 2021’s guideline
24-01-2022
: HND
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- In 4Q2021, revenue was VND 2,218 bn (or USD 96 mn), +1% QoQ and -9% YoY. Revenue declined YoY even though volume increased. Average selling price in 4Q2021 was higher than other quarters during the year thanks to FX revenue.
- 2021 was a hydrologically unfavorable year for thermal plants: accumulated revenue was VND 9,026 bn (or USD 392 mn), -17% YoY, while NPAT reached VND 443 bn (or USD 19 mn), -70% YoY. That said, these results were still ahead of our expectations as the draught came sooner than expected in 3Q2021. Thus, 2021 earnings doubled full-year guidance.
- We reiterate our BUY recommendation on HND with a TP of VND 23,300. Plus a cash dividend of VND 400, total implied return in the next 12 months is 26% as of Jan 24th, 2022.
DRC – NPAT to accelerate in 2022
21-01-2022
: DRC
: Automobiles
: Toan Dao
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VHC – 2022 earnings to continue growing
20-01-2022
: VHC
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
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- We maintain our target price of VND 75,000/share, implying an expected return of 25% including a 3% cash dividend yield for a one-year horizon. We recommend BUYING this stock.
- VHC released 2021 consolidated revenue of VND 9,067 Bn (or USD 394 Mn, +29% YoY), in line with our forecast. We are optimistic that 4Q 2021 NPAT will see a strong increase due to high fillet selling prices on the back of a low 4Q 2020
- For FY22, we project revenue and NPAT to reach VND 10,287 Bn (or USD 447 Mn, +13% YoY) and VND 1,177 Bn (or USD 51 Mn, +21% YoY), respectively. The 2022 EPS will be VND 6,369 and 2022 forward PER 11.8x at our target price. We think this PER is reasonable for VHC due to its long-term earnings growth to improve and less volatile compared to the past.
MBB – 2022 Outlook: Healthy Asset Quality Supports Growth
19-01-2022
: MBB
:
: Tam Pham
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- Healthy asset quality will be consolidated following customer recovery, combined with high provision base and full provision for structured debt in 2021, leading to reduced credit costs significantly in 2022, which is an important growth driver of PBT in 2022.
- Q4/2021 results are expected to rise strongly compared to the same time last year, thanks to strong improvement in NIM. High profit growth in 2022 will start from Q2. Q1/2021 creates a high-comparison base with a spike in one-time income from written-off debt collection.
- We estimate PBT for 2021-2022 to reach VND16,297 billion (+52% YoY) and VND22,443 billion (+38% YoY). Book value per share in 2021-2022 is VND16,080 and VND20,773 respectively, corresponding to forward P/Bs of 1.7x and 1.3x. The target price is VND38,500/share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation with a profit margin of 28% compared to the closing price on January 18, 2022.
The Government's priorities in the economic recovery program 2022-23
18-01-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- The National Assembly approved the stimulus package worth about 4.1% GDP.
- Supporting the demand side is a key part of the economic recovery program.
- The public investment serves as leverage for Vietnam in recovery after the pandemic.
- The majority of the out-of-budget spending package aims to import Covid-19 vaccines.
