Pharmaceutical – Bright outlook for 2H2022
04-08-2022
04-08-2022:
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Cao Ngoc Quan
Tags:
- In the hospital channel, domestic drugs are a lower proportion than foreign drugs, and the percentage of winning bids is only 33% less than 67% of foreign drugs. The brand-name drugs are 100% foreign, accounting for the majority in groups 1, 5 and the same proportion as domestic drugs in group 2. Domestic drug manufacturers focus on competing in groups 2, 3, and 4.
- Market-wide pharmaceutical sales improved in 1H2022 after the Omicron variant. From the low base of 2H/2021, we expect domestic drug manufacturing businesses to grow strongly in the short term.
- The sales channel is expanding through the race for market share and the trend of aging in Vietnam to create favorable conditions for the pharmaceutical industry in the medium and long term.
19 HDG – Real estate growth motivation in 2H2022
03-08-2022
: HDG
: Real Estate
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- In 2H2022, revenue (+116% YoY) and earnings after tax (+427% YoY) witnessed a positive growth. The main growth driver came from the real estate segment started handing over the second phase of the Charm Villas project. Along with the energy segment, it continued to maintain a high growth rate (+82% YoY) due to stable operation of factories and favorable hydrological condition.
- In 2022, we predict that revenue and NPAT will be 3,680 VND billion (+3% YoY) and 1,570 VND billion (+17% YoY), respectively, at EPS of VND6,419/share.
- The positive Q2 results could catalyze HDG's price up 28% over the past month, bringing the P/B to 2.35x and about 9% below our latest target price. However, with the gloomy picture of the real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City, we are considering re-evaluating the implementation progress of some HDG’s projects in the future, thereby reviewing the stock valuation.
REE – Main pillar is the hydropower segment
02-08-2022
: REE
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- In 2Q2022, the company’s revenue rose by 24% YoY. The main driver was the power segment with a growth of 36% YoY compared to last year. Gross profit margin widen by 373 bps to 44% thanks to margin expansion from the power segment. NPATMI bounced by 56% YoY mostly driven by a doubling of the power segment. Regarding other segments, properties/M&E trading and service/ water rose by 22%/16%/6%.
- In 2022, we forecast revenue and NPATMI to be VND 7,963 bn and 2,319 bn (or USD 346 mn and USD 101 mn, +37% YoY and 25% YoY), respectively.
- Our latest target price is VND 90,700, offering an upside of 15% compared to the closing price as of Aug 02nd, 2022. Hence, we recommend to ACCUMULATE this stock due to the bright medium-term outlook.
TCB – 2Q22 review: “Flight to quality”
01-08-2022
: TCB
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- TCB maintained its growth momentum in 2Q22 despite the limitation on the balance sheet growth capacity as a result of moderate initial credit growth quota. Total operating income grew 20% YoY on the back of solid fee income (43% YoY) while NIM was down sharply from the last quarter. PBT growth was 22% YoY. Risk cost control and non-funded income focused on delivering banking profitability and capital allocation efficiency.
- We revise earnings to reflect growth constraint in 2022. 2022 PBT is not adjusted much, staying at VND 29.0 tn (USD 1.2 bn, 25% YoY). However, the foundation for growth is expected to pivot from balance sheet expansion and NIM stability towards risk cost reduction initiatives and non-funded income sources. The 1H22 results fulfilled 49% of our full-year estimation. The forward 2022 book value per share is VND 32,712. The bank’s historical P/B average is 1.7x. Our target price is revised down by 7% to VND 62,700/share, equivalent to a BUY recommendation with an upside of 62% from the closing price of August 1, 2022.
Industrial Parks – Upcoming trends and key take away
29-07-2022
:
: Real Estate
: Le Tu Quoc Hung
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- Industrial Parks including accommodation, social amenities, public services will be pulling factors to both workers and investors in the long - run.
- Including ESG related factors into industrial park planning will be a must.
- Besides leasing land and receiving a one-off payment, IP developers can take a portion of total IP area to build up other higher value – added products that could attract other types of customers. Those products include ready-built factory, ready-built warehouse, cold storage, data center.
BMP – More Pricing Pressures in 2H but Margin Could be Stable
28-07-2022
: BMP
: Materials
: Tam Pham
Tags:
- Selling volume declined -12% YoY in 1H2022, caused by the slow construction activities and public investment disbursement. Consumption in 2H could be stable as in 1H.
- The stronger rises in selling prices compared to input prices has widened profit margin in 1H.
- PVC resin price has started to fall quickly since mid-June. Therefore, from Q3, it is highly possible that selling prices will be adjusted down to stimulate demand and maintain competitiveness.
- Holistically, 2022 revenue and PAT could reach VND 5,305 billion (+16,5%) and VND 461 billion (+115%). Our forecast of 2022 has been revised up to reflect the recent deep fall in PVC resin price. The new target price is VND 70,300/share, 7% higher than the previous one. With an expected cash dividend of VND 2,800/share, the upside potential is 24%, based on the closing price of July 27, 2022.
DRC – Strong sales growth offsets significant increase in input costs
27-07-2022
: DRC
: Automobiles
: An Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q2 2022, DRC recorded net sales of VND1,148 bn (or USD 49 mn, -10.6% QoQ; -4.7% YoY), of which, domestic market posted a negative growth. Although DRC raised the average selling price (ASP) by over +15% YoY during Mar-2021 and Jun-2022, it could only pass a part of increasing production costs to customers, resulting in 2Q2022 net profit of VND84 bn (or USD 3.6 mn, -27.3 %QoQ; -20.8% YoY).
- We expect 2022 sales will grow by +17.5% YoY to VND5,147 bn (or USD 220 mn), supported by increasing tire consumption in both overseas after two-year disruption because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Equipped by expected downward adjustment of input prices compared to 1H2022, 2022 net profit is expected to reach VND306 bn (or USD 13.1 mn, +5.1% YoY).
- Using a combination of FCFF and PER, we arrive at a target price of VND34,700 in the next 12 months. Adding a cash dividend of VND1,200, the 12-months expected return is +32% compared to the closing price on July 26th. Therefore, we recommend to BUY this stock.
Seafood sector – Sharp increase in 1H 2022 but many challenges to come in 2H 2022
26-07-2022
:
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
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China’s 2H22 economic outlook
25-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
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- China's Q2/2022 economic growth is slower than expected.
- Outlook for 2H22: Slow recovery.
- Some implications for Vietnam.
Too early for the long-term bull case: Will the nickel price keep stay high?
22-07-2022
:
: Chemicals
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- A roller coaster ride for nickel in 2022 to reach a 15-year high but it is expected to stabilize again in the longer term
- Rusia is the main provider of class I nickel mining while China is the largest player for refining
- Near-term demand is still dominated by stainless steel
- Hard to bet on a remained well-priced story of nickel in an evolving rapidly EV battery industry
PE ratios and valuations
21-07-2022
:
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:
- One dilemma faced by investors is not necessarily whether the ‘E’ is correctly priced in the P/E ratio but whether the long-term trend in ‘earnings growth’ is reflecting the ‘real GDP’.
- US nominal GDP is growing at its highest rate in the past twenty-five years.
Banking sector – Update on the money market
21-07-2022
:
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- The USD/VND exchange rate continued to appreciate due to the USD strength in the international markets and local USD shortage caused by robust demand. The exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate this week as a result of the steady demand of FDI enterprises and customers in the petroleum and steel industries.
- Despite the SBV’s effort in monitoring VND and supporting the USD liquidity via open market operations, USD funding in the past week was still lacking, thereby hindering the recovery potential of the swap rate gap.
