VNM - Expect double-digit net profit growth YoY in Q4 2023
22-08-2023
22-08-2023: VNM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: An Nguyen
Tags: Result Update Q2 2023
- Q2 2023 sales and net profit reached VND15,195 bn (+9.2% QoQ; +1.8% YoY) and VND2,198 bn (+18.4% QoQ; +5.5% YoY), respectively. The domestic market is the growth driver. Net profit rose at a higher pace than revenue, encouraged by 1) the downward trend of imported raw milk powder prices; 2) SG&A optimization; and 3) rising financial income.
- We forecast 2H2023 net sales and NPAT-MI of VND33,419 bn (+7.3% YoY) and VND4,973 (+19.3% YoY), respectively. Assuming that prices of imported raw milk powder tends to decrease under low demand from China, the gross margin is expected to see an upward trend between Q3 and Q4 2023. Together with the low base of Q4 2022, Q4 2023 net profit is forecasted to present high double-digit growth YoY.
- We maintain our forecast on VNM ‘s 2023 sales at VND62,532 bn (+4.3% YoY), but revise up 2023 NPAT-MI to VND9,028 bn (+6.0% YoY), equivalent to a 2023 EPS of VND3,888 (+7% YoY). The main reason is that the price of imported raw milk powder decreased faster than expected.
Combining FCFF valuation model (55%) and multiples comparison (45%) with an applied 2023 P/E of 21.0x, our new target price for VNM is VND87,600, which is higher by 8.0% compared to the latest target price (VND81,100) on Jun-2023. Adding an expected cash dividend of VND3,850, the 12-months expected return is 26% compared to the closing price on Aug 22nd 2023. Therefore, we have a BUY recommendation on this stock for the long term.
63 BID – Provisions for credit losses are controlled and will support profit before tax
21-08-2023
: BID
: Banking
: Chinh Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q2, total operating income decreased slightly by 4% YoY. However, effective control for provision for credit losses has been the driving force behind BID's PBT maintaining a growth rate of 6% YoY.
- The cost of funds (annualized) in Q2 increased at a slower pace, rising by 45 bps (compared to an increase of 81 bps in Q1). Meanwhile, lending rates experienced delay in rate adjustments, with the average rate increasing by 17 bps, resulting in a 36 bps increase in yield on earning assets). The gap in the rate increases between these two components narrowed, leading to a 3 bps decrease in BID's NIM compared to the previous quarter, reaching 2.64% in Q2 2023. Additionally, allocating a higher proportion to high-yield loans in the total interest-earning assets positively contributed to NIM, offsetting the relatively low yields on bond investments.
- With a higher credit granted in the latter half of 2023 and the advantage in mobilization, which helps improve NIM, we project that credit growth for 2023 will reach 12.8%, driving net interest income to VND 63.9 trillion (+14% YoY) and total operating income to VND 76.4 trillion (+9.9%). The expected credit cost of 1.4% is anticipated to enable the company to maintain the PBT at VND 27.6 trillion (+20% YoY). We expect BID's ROE to improve above 20% and additional equity capital to provide a basis for maintaining high credit growth in the coming years.
- Our target price is VND 54,200 per share, equivalent to a PBR of 2.3, with a return of 19% compared to the closing price on August 21, 2023. Therefore, we recommend to BUY BID.
REE – The 2023 stepping stone boosts mid-term growth momentum
18-08-2023
: REE
: Utilities
: Hoai Trinh
Tags:
- Hydropower contribution to business results has been reduced from Q2/2023. 6M/2023 results saw NPAT-MI with a slight decrease although revenue continued to grow primarily due to (1) a decrease in profit contribution from hydroelectricity due to hydrological conditions (-8.7% YoY), (2) contribution from the office leasing segment also recorded a slight decrease YoY when the occupancy rate of office buildings for lease decreased (-1.6% YoY), and (3) the M&E segment recorded a drop in profit (-44.6% YoY) due to additional provision for doubtful receivables.
- In the first half of 2023, the energy segment, particularly hydropower, remained the most important component of REE's revenue and NPAT. However, poor hydrological conditions are predicted to stifle profit increase in 2H2023. We expect REE's revenue and NPAT-MI to be VND 8,827 bn (-6% YoY) and VND 2,479 bn (-9% YoY), respectively. EPS is 6,068 VND/share.
- The year 2023 will serve as the foundation for the next stage. The E.town 6 building project, which would add 26% to the existing leasable floor area, is projected to be completed by the end of Q4/2023. In addition, the Light Square residential project, which includes low-rise houses (phase 1), is scheduled to be completed by Dec 2023, with results expected in 2024. At the same time, as a result of its solid financial position and abundant cash flow from operating activities, REE will pursue future M&A projects.
- We have a BUY rating with a target price of VND 74,000/share based on a sum of the part (SoTP) valuation. With an expected cash dividend of VND 1,000/share in the next 12 months, total return is determined at 24% based on the closing price on Aug 18th, 2023.
US Fed and Economic Growth
18-08-2023
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags: FED
- US GDP increased at a 2.4% annualized rate in 2Q vs 2.% on 1Q.
- The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity.
- Our base case remains that a downturn in the US economy is coming, along with a pronounced slowdown in inflation, with the key question remaining the lags in monetary policy
DBD – Sustained double-digit growth
17-08-2023
: DBD
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- In Q2-FY23, net revenue and PBT were VND 414 billion (+8% QoQ/+23% YoY) and VND 84 billion (+6% QoQ/+23% YoY), respectively. Accumulated 1H2023, net revenue and PBT were VND 796 billion (+14% YoY) and VND 173 billion (+28% YoY), completing 45% and 58% of the 2023 plan, respectively achieving 45% and 48% of our forecast.
- In a favorable policy environment in 1H2023, the total bid-winning value was VND 394 billion (+37% YoY), which is a positive indicator to ensure growth for 2H2023. For the second half of the year, forecasted ETC channel revenue is VND 521 billion (+8% YoY). For 2024F, ETC channel revenue forecast is VND 1,116 billion (+14% YoY).
- For 2H2023, forecast OTC channel revenue is VND 329 billion (+2% YoY). For 2024F, forecasted OTC channel revenue is VND 685 billion (+7% YoY). OTC channel revenue will decrease compared to the period 2020 – 2022. The CAGR of 7% is equivalent to the growth of the industry as the number of new pharmacies opened slows down.
- We maintain our forecast that revenue and NPAT will be VND 1,753 billion (+13% YoY) and VND 298 billion (+22% YoY) respectively. EPS for 2023 will be VND 3,980. We recommend to BUY at the target price of VND 65,800 per share because (1) reducing the WACC in the FCFF method due to the risk-free rate and ERP decreasing and (2) raising the target P/E valuation to 17x expecting that the appearance of foreign strategic investors with premium valuation will be a positive catalyst for the stock.
Update on trade in July 2023
16-08-2023
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My Tran
Tags:
- Slow recovery in trade activity.
- Exports to China are improving.
- Demand for production materials of domestic enterprises is recovering.
NKG – Demand recovery on foreign market
15-08-2023
: NKG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do
Tags: NKG Steel
- In 2Q2023, NKG recorded revenue of VND 5,500bn (USD 232mn, -24%YoY, +26%QoQ), with sales volume of 236.6 thousand tons (-9%YoY, +21%QoQ). Of which, c. 67% was to exported markets (ASEAN, EU) owing to the demand recovery, especially from 2Q23. The 2Q gross profit margin (GPM) was increased to 9% (from the low-level of 3.1% in 1Q23), and gross profit reached VND 496bn (USD 20.9mn, +260%QoQ), when the main material (Hot Roiled Coil - HRC) is trade at the average price of USD 637/ton (-9% QoQ). It has also decreased its days of inventory on hand to 107 in 2Q, to avoid the risk of HRC price instability. As a result, NKG recorded the 2Q NPAT-MI of VND 125bn (-38%YoY), after recorded net loss in 1Q23.
- For 2H2023, we expect the sales volume can reach 464.4 thousand tons (increased by 8% compared to 1H23), mostly comes from export markets, and currently there is no new trade interventions (such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties) from key markets (EU, ASEAN). The 2H23 revenue will be VND 8,397bn (USD 354.3mn, -4%YoY).
- Because of the uncertainty of China’s residential market - the main customer, the material price may be at the current low-level of USD 600/ton. However, there is risk that strong fluctuation might occur in 2H2023, and with the appropriate inventory policy, we expect NKG can maintain the GPM of 7% in 2H. In term of the bottom line, at the expected net profit margin of 2.8%, we estimate NKG’s 2H23 net profit of VND 234bn (USD 9.9mn), compared with net loss of VND 775bn in 2H22.
- We use two methods (FCFE and PB) to evaluate the stock; our fair value comes at VND 20,100 value per share, implying a total return of -1.5% as of the closing price on August 15th, 2023, equivalent to a NEUTRAL recommendation for Nam Kim Group Jsc.
FPT - Q2-2023 AM Note: Maintaining Double-Digit Growth Target Despite Challenging Macro Outlook
14-08-2023
: FPT
: Technologies
: Tung Do
Tags:
- FPT maintains the target of 2023, implying that revenue and PBT will grow by 18.8% YoY and 18.3% YoY respectively in 2H-2023, despite the challenging macro environment both globally and domestically.
- Global IT services: IT spending in Japan is accelerating, underpinning the steady growth momentum of the segment, despite some signs of weakness in the US market.
- Domestic IT services: Challenges remain ahead.
- Telecom sector: Broadband service growth slows due to structural changes.
LHG - Positive long-term outlook will overshadow the current results.
11-08-2023
: LHG
: Industrial Land RE
: Hung Le
Tags: 2Q2023 earnings update LHG Industrial Park FDI
- Long Hau Joint Stock Company (HSX: LHG) has just announced its 2Q2023 financial report, showing that business results declined compared to the same period last year. Accordingly, net revenue in Q2 only reached VND 67 billion (USD 2.82 million), down 71% YoY. NPAT also decreased by 40% to VND 24 billion (USD 1.01 million). In the first half of 2023, LHG recorded net revenue of VND 182 billion (USD 7.67 million), down 48% YoY. NPAT reached VND 75 billion (USD 3.16 million), down 16% YoY.
- 2023 revenue will reach VND 722 billion (USD 30.4 mn, +15%YoY), NPAT grow by 48% YoY to VND 302 billion (USD 12.7 mn) thanks to the low base of 2022.
- We maintain a positive long-term outlook for LHG as the value of the current leasable area in Long Hau 3.1 (LH 3.1) is revised thanks to the robust growth of rental price. 21,343 m2 of new RBFs space was put into operation creating a new source of income for LHG. The investment policy approvals for An Dinh and Long Hau 3.2 (LH3.2) are expected to be received in 2H2023/1H2024 opening more room to grow.
- We upgrade the target price to VND 50,000/share as we (1) eliminate liquidity discount, (2) adjust the leasing price at LH 3.1 to USD $260/sqm for the remaining leasable area, (3) value the additional RBFs asset. Adding a cash dividend of VND 1,900 per share in the next 12 months, the total expected return will be +85.3% (compared to the closing price of 08/10/2023).
Seafood industry – A gradual rebound in export volume
10-08-2023
: VHC, ANV
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
Tags: Industry outlook
- In 7M 2023, seafood export value reached almost USD 5 billion, marking a decline of 25% YoY. The YoY decline is narrowing month by month on a lower baseline set in the latter half of 2022. Yet, a relatively sluggish month-on-month recovery rate is still apparent.
- Rong Viet predicts Vietnam's seafood exports to reach USD 5 billion in 2H 2023, showing a slight 5% YoY decrease, but a 15% growth compared to the low base of 1H 2023.
- Seafood exporters to the US and China might see a clearer recovery in late 2023. Anticipated trends include rising export volume, coupled with declining selling prices. Large exporters could also improve results in 2H 2023.
DPM - 2H23 earnings could be more positive regardless of unimpressive 1H23 business results
09-08-2023
: DPM
: Fertilizer
: Ngan Le
Tags:
- DPM announced 2Q23 results with a revenue of VND3,707bn (-26% YoY), and an NPAT MI of VND101bn (-92% YoY). The unimpressive results were mostly caused by a decline in urea selling prices as well as the high gas input. However, 2Q’s revenue showed an improvement in QoQ thanks to a better urea sales volume. In 1H23, DPM posted VND6,972bn revenue (-36% YoY) and VND361bn NPAT MI (-90% YoY), respectively.
- Nevertheless, we have a fairly optimistic forecast for 2H23 compared to 1H23, owing mostly to (1) support export turnover, (2) the improvement of domestic urea selling prices, and (3) lower tariff price.
- Global urea selling prices tend to increase before India’s bid opening on Aug 9th. Bloomberg anticipates that India’s Aug tender could reveal a 45% price increase from the last deal USD280/ton. Urea exports were 64,000 tons in 1H23 and DPM anticipates growth to 80,000 tons in 2H23 owing mostly to the next India’s tender (from Aug 9th to Aug 26th).
- In the domestic market, DPM’s urea is trading at VND10,000/kg, up from VND9,250/kg in Jul, as a result of global’s momentum. We expect this price will hold through 2H23, especially when the Winter-Spring season approaches.
- In 1H23, the gas sources completely came from Cuu Long Basin (an expensive source). But DPM expects gas sources can distribute among the expensive source in Cuu Long Basin (66%) and Bach Ho – Rong Doi Moi Gas Field (34%) in 2H23, and hence anticipate the tariff might decrease.
- Considering the above factors, we are convinced that DPM could achieve a revenue of VND13,834bn (-25.7% YoY) and an NPAT MI of VND1,131bn (-79.6% YoY) in 2023, which contributes majority by 2H23’s profits.
- With the 2023 earnings forecast of VND1,131bn, the P/E 2023 will be 13.8x, which is not attractive in our opinion. However, with the expected bright sides in 2H23, results in the potential cash dividend of VND4,000 in FY23-24 ~ dividend yield of 10%/year could be a positive catalyst for DPM shares. Furthermore, given the unpredicted movement of global urea selling prices, for prudent, we recommend NEUTRAL for DPM with a target price of VND36,200/share.
MCM - Financial income drove net profit grow
08-08-2023
: MCM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: An Nguyen
Tags: Q2 2023 business result dairy industry
- Q2 2023 sales and net profit reached VND790 bn (+7.6% QoQ; -5.8% YoY) and VND93 bn (-7.9% QoQ; +3.3% YoY), respectively. Weaker-than-last year sales is the tendency for the industry under rising inflation. Higher raw milk cost is compensated by healthy financial income, resulting in positive profit growth.
- We believe that the flat growth of MCM ‘s 1H2023 sales is a premise for higher sales growth in 2H2023 when the economy is expected to recover. The higher COGS could be compensated by higher financial income. As a result, MCM ‘s net profit will grow at a higher rate than revenue in 2023.
- The stock price has decreased at a modest rate (-2.5%) since the beginning of 2023, equivalent to a trailing P/E of 13.7x. We suppose that the flattening trend of sales is the reason affecting the stock price. Therefore, on the expectation of higher sales and positive net profit growth in 2H2023, the stock price should be go up.
