09-04-2026VNINDEX1736.68-19.87-1.13% HNXIndex250.98-2.34-0.92% UPCOM127.5-0.20-0.16% VN301915.01-16.00-0.83% VN1001843.49-12.66-0.68% HNX30546.17-4.14-0.75% VNXALL2872.68-18.03-0.62% VNX503213.85-21.87-0.68% VNMID2233.44-1.09-0.05% VNSML1427.451.330.09% 2023 Review: Trade bottomed out but slowly improved
18-12-2023
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- Exports and imports in 2023 are estimated to decrease by 5% YoY and 10% YoY.
- Agriculture is a bright spot in the export picture in 2023.
- China contributed the most to trade growth for the whole year
BID – NPL are under control
15-12-2023
: BID
: Banking
: Chinh Dang
Tags:
- In Q3/23, BID's PBT was VND 5.9 trillion (-12% YoY). For the first 9 months of 2023, the accumulated pre-tax profit reached VND 19.7 trillion (+11% YoY), completing 78% of the bank's profit plan for 2023.
- During 9M2023, credit growth reached 8.3% YTD, a relatively high level compared to other state-owned banks. This growth was primarily driven by the customer loans, while the balance of corporate bonds recorded a 33% YTD decrease (contributing 0.5% to credit compared to 0.8% at the end of 2022). BID also showed an increase in the contribution ratio of retail customers, rising back to 44% after a slight decrease to 43% in Q2.
- The cost of funds (annualized) decreased by 32 bps in Q3, reflecting interest rate reductions across the entire system. Meanwhile, with a 33 bps decrease in asset yields, there was a slight decline in NIM by 2 bps compared to the Q2/2023 period. In the short term, the rapid and substantial reduction in deposit interest rates is seen as the most positive factor impacting NIM. This trend is expected to continue in Q4/2023, helping to stabilize NIM and complete the bottoming-out process.
- BID's asset quality remained stable, with the consolidated non-performing loan ratio for customer loans staying flat compared to the previous quarter at around 1.59%, and the group 2 loan ratio decreasing by 30 bps from the previous quarter.
- For Q4/2023, it is expected that total operating income will recover by 12% YoY, driven by the gradual recovery of credit growth towards the end of the year, reaching 12.5% YTD, and NIM (TTM) is expected to be maintained at 2.66%. In the medium term, BID is expected to maintain internal bad debt according to its set targets. Therefore, estimated provision expenses are expected to remain at a level equivalent to Q3/2023, around VND 5.6 trillion, to provide a basis for handling NPL in the final months of the year. The PBT for Q4/2023 is projected to reach VND 6.1 trillion (+14% YoY). The forecast for the whole year 2023 anticipates a PBT of VND 25.9 trillion (+12.5% YoY). The corresponding net profit after tax and earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be VND 20.4 trillion and VND 3,218, respectively. Our target price for BID is VND 43,500/share, equivalent to a target PBR of 2.1, providing a return of 5% compared to the closing price on December 15, 2023.
Fisheries Industry – Overcoming Challenges in 2023
14-12-2023
: VHC, FMC, ANV, IDI
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- After experiencing a sharp decline in the first half of 2023 due to the high baseline (in the Chinese and U.S. markets) compared to the same period in 2022, the export value of pangasius has shown a tendency to stabilize and slightly improve since September 2023. This improvement, according to our observation, is mainly due to the recovery of consumption levels in the Chinese and U.S. markets. Meanwhile, consumption in the European market has maintained a relatively stable trend. We anticipate that this mild positive trend will persist in the final quarter of 2023.
- However, the gross profit margin of the pangasius industry in Q4-2023 is expected to face challenges in growth due to the forecasted decrease in the average selling prices while raw material prices may rise again. Companies with a high export proportion to the EU are likely to have lower average selling prices compared to companies with a high export proportion to China (CN) and the United States (U.S.).
- The shrimp market continues to maintain a competitive advantage, particularly in the case of deep-processed products. The gross profit margin in the shrimp industry is expected to improve in Q4-2023 for companies harvesting self-cultivated shrimp. The net profit margin will see improvement in companies effectively controlling transportation costs.
Vietnam Home Appliance Market – More aggressive competition in the context of saturated phase
13-12-2023
: MWG, FRT, DGW
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- In 9M-2023, total value of Vietnam major & small home appliances market declined respectively by -10.0% & -8.0% YoY. As of which, except air-conditioner segment (+5.8% YoY), remaining segments recorded a negative growth. The main reason is the downturn phase of real estate & the decreasing of disposable incomes on the economic landscape.
- The annual boost-sale season will be the primary driver of this market's recovery in Q4-2023, but profit margins for these corporates will be squeezed by the continuously low-pricing strategy & discount/promotion policy to stimulate demand & clear all of hard-to-sell inventories.
- In the last 8 years, much more brand/distributor/retailers have entered the Vietnam home appliances market, while some key segments (air conditioner, refrigerator, washing machine) have gradually become saturated with higher-and-higher penetration rates, hence, it may force them to compete more fiercely in terms of price/innovation/coverage rate. We believe that the revenue for all home appliance corporates will barely reach robust growth rate in FY24
PNJ – Demand for gold bar is expected to drive positive sales growth in Q4 2023
12-12-2023
: PNJ
: Retailing
: An Nguyen
Tags:
- In Oct-2023, PNJ posted revenue and net profit of VND3,007 bn (+33.6% MoM; +1.6% YoY) and VND193 bn (+108% MoM; +31% YoY), respectively. Although the Retail and Wholesales segments continued to decrease YoY, the declining growth rate is the lowest in the last 9 months. The gross margin improved, supported by higher contribution from the retail business
- Based on the performance of PNJ’s gold bar segment in 10M2023, we predict that it will continue to be the growth driver for Q4 2023 sales as well as the whole year of 2023. In Q4 2023 and 2023, net sales is expected to reach VND8,516 bn (+23.1% QoQ; +2.6% YoY) and VND31,893 bn (-5.9% YoY), respectively. Correspondingly, Q4 2023 and 2023 net profit will be VND452 bn (+78.7% QoQ; -3.0% YoY) and VND1,792 bn (-0.8% YoY), respectively. The equivalent 2023 EPS is VND 5,461
- We downgrade the expected 2024 SSSG (same-store sales growth) rate to -2% YoY as we believe that Vietnamese people disposable income will still not be positive in 2024, limiting their spending on jewelry products. As a result, 2024 revenue is adjusted down to VND33,818 bn (+6% YoY). Similarly, the net profit and EPS are reduced to VND1,982 bn (+11% YoY) and VND5,705 (+4.5% YoY), respectively
- Based on the combination of FCFF valuation model (50%) and multiple comparison (50%), with an applied 2024 P/E of 15.0x, our new target price is VND86,200 which is 2% lower than the latest target price (VND88,000) in Jul-2023. Adding a cash dividend of VND2,000/share, the 12-month expected return is +10.3% compared to the closing price on Dec 11th 2023, equivalent to an ACCUMULATE recommendation
SCS – Update on 11M2023 Business and 2023F-24F Forecasts
11-12-2023
: SCS
: Aviation
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Cumulative 11M-2023 cargo volume reached 123.8 thousand tons (-25% YoY). The November figure alone posted positive growth over the same period for the first time in 2023, reaching 9%, on the low base of the previous year.
- International cargo volume in 2023F is forecasted to reach 138 thousand tons (-22% YoY), leading to a decrease in revenue and NPAT of -19% YoY and -22% YoY, respectively. 2023 PAT is expected to reach VND 506 billion, corresponding to a basic EPS of 4,650 VND.
- For 2024, revenue and NPAT are forecast to reach VND 752 billion (+9% YoY) and VND 532 billion (+5% YoY), corresponding to a basic EPS of 4,900 VND.
- Maintain the target price of 74,300 VND/share for SCS, implying an expected return rate of 22% (including a cash dividend of 60% on par value) as of December 11th, 2023.
IMP - Valuation is moving towards an attractive range for long-term investment strategies
08-12-2023
: IMP
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Quan Cao
Tags: IMP
- In Q3-FY23, revenue and NPAT were VND 467 billion (+12% YoY) and VND 70 billion (+25% YoY), respectively. In which, revenue from self-produced pharmaceuticals accounted for 95% of total net revenue. The two main sales channels, ETC and OTC, reported revenues of VND 192 billion (+15% YoY) and VND 252 billion (+5% YoY), respectively.
- Forecast for 2023F, revenue and NPAT will be VND 1,980 billion (+20% YoY) and VND 317 billion (+36% YoY), with an EPS of 3,847 VND. For 2024F, revenue and NPAT are forecasted to reach VND 2,229 billion (+13% YoY) and VND 367 billion (+15% YoY), EPS is 4,458 VND.
- We recommend a BUY for IMP with a target price of 74,000 VND per share, which represents a total return of 35%. This implies a P/E ratio for 2024F at the target price of 16.6x
PC1 – 2024 should mark a year of earnings turnaround
07-12-2023
: PC1
: Utilities
: Hoai Trinh
Tags:
- For Q4/2023, we expect PC1's NPAT-MI to be VND 196 bn (+192.9% QoQ, -0.6% YoY), with the following assumptions: (1) positive performance in the electricity and construction sectors in Q4/2023, although still lower than Q4/2022; (2) nickel mining contributing an additional 11,000 tons of ore exports in December 2023; (3) continued contributions from Nomura IP; (4) the residential RE segment, with commercial retail space sales on par with Q3/2023 (while not recording any in Q4/2022); (5) no additional forex losses, as seen in Q3/2023. Correspondingly, for FY23, we expect PC1's net revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND 7,639 bn (-8.6% YoY) and VND 252 bn (-45.2% YoY), resulting in an EPS of VND 759/share.
- For FY24, we expect PC1's NPAT-MI to experience robust growth compared to the low base of 2023. We forecast that the company's net revenue and NPAT-MI will reach VND 9,227 bn (+20.8% YoY) and VND 496 bn (+96.8% YoY), respectively, resulting in an EPS of 1,558 VND/share. Our assumptions include (1) increased activity in construction and EPC contracting in 2024; (2) a recovery in the power generation sector, primarily hydropower; (3) the mineral segment contributing approximately 40,000 tons of ore exports when operational for the entire year; (4) additional contributions from the industrial RE sector, particularly from Yen Phong 2A IP; and (5) lower FX losses compared to 2023.
- We have a one-year target price for PC1 at VND 27,200 per share, based on two methods: the sum of the parts (SoTP) and P/E, with respective weights of 70% and 30%. Despite the positive business outlook for 2024, we believe that the growth prospects are currently priced in. Therefore, we recommend that investors consider accumulating shares when the market undergoes a significant correction at a reasonable price. Currently, with a 0% upside based on the closing price as of December 7th, 2023, we recommend a NEUTRAL rating on PC1 stock.
Stock market – The headwind went away, the market sublimated.
06-12-2023
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Hung Le
Tags:
- The global stock market showed a more positive trend in November, with many indices, including Vietnam's, witnessing significant increases compared to the previous month. This uptick was supported by several factors such as the easing of the Israel-Hamas conflict, expectations of an earlier reversal in Federal Reserve monetary policy following the latest inflation report, and investor optimism about the real estate market after the National Assembly passed new laws.
- We are not overly optimistic about the market trend in December. One of the reasons is that the macroeconomic indicators for November have not shown significant progress. Additionally, the persistent net selling trend by foreign investors in large-cap stocks continues to exert pressure on the scores in December.
- Key events in December include the last Federal Reserve meeting of 2023 on December 13th, and the anticipated go-live of the KRX system at the end of the month. Additionally, the potential state visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Vietnam in the middle of this month is also noteworthy.
Real estate market update – Housing sentiment has improved in Tier-I cities
05-12-2023
: KDH, NLG
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do
Tags: BĐS
- We see an improvement in the absoprtion rate, both in the primary market and the secondary market, in the 2H2023, especially in tier-I cities (Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City). The improvement will be supported by: 1/Reduced lending rates which help to increase home buyers’ sentiment, 2/ Developers’ sales policies to support buyers (allowing 30-40% of total value to be prepaid until handover, partial support of the borrowing rate, offering a grace period of first 02 years for both principal and interest charge,…).
- With the sales results of companies in our coverage list, we also see a recovery in housing demand in tier I cities and surrounding areas. As a result, we believe that in the 1H2024, developers will continue to focus on projects located in tier-I cities, along with maintaining the support policy, as implemented in 2023.
- In its last session of November 2023, the 15th National Assembly passed the Housing Law (Amended) and the Real Estate Business Law (Amended), which will take effect from January 2025. The Housing Law (Amended) provides regulations for the development of social housing projects; it also adds regulations related to commercial houses and apartments to protect the rights of buyers. The Real Estate Business Law (Amended) provides regulations to increase market transparency and protect the interests of home buyers.
FMC – Futher increase in export volume
04-12-2023
: FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags: Frishery FMC
- Net sales in Q3-2023 reached VND 1,793 billion (+2.3% YoY; +73.7% QoQ) as export shrimp volume increased by 11.4% and shrimp selling price in VND decreased by only 6.2% YoY. The NPAT-MI Q3-2023 continued to increase to VND 82 billion (+6.1% YoY; +14.7% QoQ) due to improved selling, general and administrative expense (SG&A expenses).
- Based on the projected performance in Q4-2023, we adjust 2023 revenue and NPAT-MI to VND 5,017 billion (-12% YoY) and VND 275 billion (-10.4% YoY), respectively. Reasons: (1) export volume in Q4-2023 is estimated to increase by 15% YoY, (2) gross profit margin improves due to increased shrimp output from new farming areas in Q4/2023; and (3) the ratio of S&GA expenses/revenue is stable.
- In 2024, we forecast net sales and NPAT-MI to be VND 5,517 billion (+10% YoY) and VND 325 billion (+18% YoY), respectively, due to (1) export volume increased by 10% YoY, (2) profit margin improved beacuse of the addition of 20 hectares of new farming area and the successful farming rate increased thanks to CP's high quality shrimp seed. Equivalent EPS is VND 4,921 (+18% YoY).
- We reduce our target price to 51,900 VND/share, down 2% from the previous valuation due to the lower earnings forecast compared to the latest projection (as of July 28, 2023). Plus the expected cash dividend of 2,000 VND, the expected profit in the next 12 months is 19.1% compared to the closing price of 45,250 VND/share on November 30, 2023, by (1) adjusting WACC down from 11.8% to 10.9% (2) using 2024 EPS for P/E valuation method, and (3) reducing profits of 2023 & 2024 compared to previous forecast. We recommend ACCUMULATE this stock for the long term.
PVS – Positive signal from Block B project
01-12-2023
: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Ngan Le
Tags:
- PVS announced 3Q2023 results with revenue of VND 4,176 bn (USD 176 mn; +19% YoY; -11% QoQ). Gross margin shrank to 4.3% and higher G&A expenses led the NPAT-MI down 27% YoY to VND 141 bn (USD 6 mn).
- For 4Q2023 we expect that PVS will continue to book revenue from ongoing projects such as Hai Long OSS, Shwe Phase 3, CHW2204 and Thi Vai LPG tanker. 2023’s revenue and NPAT-MI are projected to VND 19,725 bn (USD 832 mn; +20% YoY) and VND 895 bn (USD 38 mn; +1% YoY). Correspondend EPS is VND 1,686.
- With contribution from major projects such as Block B (EPCI#1 &2), Su Tu Trang – Phase 2 and CHW2204, we forecast 2024 revenue and NPAT-MI to VND 29,147 bn (USD 1,230 mn; +48% YoY) and VND 1,351 bn (USD 57 nm; +51% YoY), respectively. Corresponding EPS is VND 2,544.
- We raise our target price to VND 36,300/share (+31% to the latest target price of VND 27,800/share) due to positive signal from Block B project, with a NEUTRAL recommendation for PVS share.
18-12-2023
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