Asian equity markets: disparity of returns

Looking at the performance of various Asian equity markets so far this year, one thing is obvious: North Asia has done much better for investors than South East Asia (Table 1). In ASEAN, no market is in positive territory so far in 2020, although Malaysia can be seen as an outlier in the region. Pan-Asia, only the Shanghai A-share market stands out, outperforming the MSCI World by 11% so far in 2020. That could be seen as a surprise considering the current global situation.

Domestic ETFs’ rebalance in July – August review

The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange has announced the removal of BVH and CTD from the VN30 index basket and BVH from the VNFINLEAD index basket, while the VNDIAMOND index’s component will remain unchanged until the October review. By contrast, KDH and TCH will be added to the VN30 basket while there is no new component in the VNFINLEAD basket.

PPC – Decreasing profit is within expectations

In our recent PPC result update, we thought that PPC’s NPAT might have peaked in 2019 because of many favorable events. Those advantages are not likely to continue in 2020. Indeed, 1H2020 NPAT went down by nearly 30% YoY, which was in line with our expectations. Therefore, we maintain our neutral view on PPC and the target price of VND 22,500 means no upside for the stock at the moment.

SCS – Q2-FY20 yielded better results than expected; raise TP by 6%

SCS has shared some estimates about its Q2-FY20 results. The company estimates that quarterly revenue will reach VND157bn (-17% YoY). Q2-FY20’s EBIT is expected to decline by 27% YoY, quite in line with our expectations in May, in which we reckoned that the operating profit would decline by approximately 30% YoY as a consequence of the considerable air cargo’s belly capacity crunch on international passenger flights following the travel bans. Meanwhile, robust interest income is estimated to be more than double last year’s figure, providing some offset to the reduction in operating income. Consequently, guided quarterly PBT falls by just 20% YoY, ending at VND109bn.

1H2020 corporate bond issuance results and 2H2020 outlook

We believe that the demand for corporate bonds issuance will continue to remain high in 2H2020 as banks are concerned about the bad debt situation in the current environment. However, the value of issuance in 2H2020 will decrease compared to 1H2020 due to Decree 81, which has just been issued and will take effect from September 1. The main highlight from this new Decree is that the following issuance must be six months after the previous issuance. During the past two years, many companies have split the issuance to make it easier for investors and comply with the regulations for private issuance bond of less than 100 investors. Hence, now companies will be forced to issue a large volume. It will be difficult for issuers to find “bigger” investors. Thus, we will not be surprised if the issuance volume increases sharply from now until the Decree takes effect.

Real estate market update

Q2 2020:

With nationwide social isolation in April and the negative impacts of COVID-19, the performance of the real estate industry in Q2 has been disappointing. Supply mainly came from existing projects, not from new ones.

Ho Chi Minh: New supply launched in Q2 was the lowest for the recent five years. Besides, the absorption rate reached 70%, a decrease of 10-15 ppts QoQ and 20 ppts YoY. The demand has diminished during this period, due to high selling prices and the impact of COVID-19 in Q2 2020. Specifically, total units sold in Q2 2020 were 1,581, which saw a decrease of 58% QoQ and 66% YoY. For the whole H1 2020, the total accumulative sold units was 5,338, a decrease by 49% YoY. Additionally, the average selling price in the primary market remained relative compared to the previous quarter, and up by 4% YoY.

VIB – Update on AGM and proforma 1H2020 performance

So far VIB seems to be the bank with a top earnings growth target (at +10% YoY in 2020) and credit growth target (+24% YoY) amongst the industry players, which can be understandable considering its robust growth momentum during the last three years. 1H results are likely to be fine with 36% YoY earnings growth and 55% guidance fulfillment as per management, which is well better than peers. Management emphasized the bank’s ability to expand credit strongly and maintain asset quality despite the impact of Covid-19, supported by its leading banca position and efficiency improvement. Should there is no serious evolvement of the epidemic,  we forecast that  VIB can maintain its stronger-than-peers growth outlook in 2020/2021. The transfer to HSX, expected by end-2020, is also a catalyst for VIB.

The stock is currently trading at VND18.400, equivalent to an attractive PB 2020E of 1.0x considering its high possibility to maintain an ROE of 25% in the next five years.

Surging Exports to North America and the EU

Vietnam’s international trade keeps improving. We highlights two positive changes extracted from the preliminary trade data by Customs. Firstly, Vietnam’s trade surplus recorded another high of USD 5.5 Bn in 1H 2020. Secondly, exports to key markets such as the US and EU sharply rebounded across many sectors while exports to China keep rising impressively. Although new export orders haven’t come back, surging inventories caused by social-distancing in Q2 2020 pushed Vietnam’s trade surplus up significantly. There are chances that the 2020 trade surplus will surpass 2019’s and mark a new all-time high.

PVS - 2020 is the highlight for M&C bookings but will be less so in 2021

Despite being the upstream leader, less M&C projects in 2021 will prevent PVS from growing. Besides, although cash per share is higher than the market price, the cash dividend policy will be stable with VND700 – VND1,000 per share. As a result, we do not see any significant catalysts for the share price in the future and recommend to ACCUMULATE with a target price of VND13,800. Plus VND1,000 cash dividend, the total expected return is 19.6%, compared to the closing price in July 13, 2020.

Forecast for the automobile industry in 2H2020

We believe that automobile sales will recover in 2H2020 compared to 1H2020, thanks to improving economic conditions and supportive policies from the Government. Although GPM is likely to decline, gross profit will still grow thanks to increased sales. In addition, selling expenses will be lower, which should help PBT in 2H2020 compared to 1H2020.

NT2 update – Lower gas prices will impact profitability

2020 potential: The efficient machine is already maxed out

NT2’s performance has been stable for several years now in terms of output, revenue and NPAT. Consequently, looking from an investor’s perspective, the dividend payout will be maintained at VND 2,500 per share for 2019, equivalent to a yield of 11% at today’s closing price. Accordingly, the 2020 performance is expected to be stable compared to 2019. NT2 is considered by the market to be a good stock not due to its growth potential but because of its proven efficiency and remarkable stability.

PNJ – May’s result update

We maintain our cautious view on PNJ for 2020 as (1) pent-up demand dried up following an impressive recovery in May and (2) we expect consumer spending on jewelry to deteriorate in 2H2020 due to the prolonged impact of Covid-19.

Despite this glooming short-term outlook, PNJ is heavily investing in digital transformation projects, human resources, production capability as well as store networks so as to prepare for the fuller recovery of the demand and to cement its core competitive advantages, while others retailers seem to be barely active. As we expect that those advantages will further solidify PNJ’s undisputed leading position in the jewelry industry which is substantially potential going forward owing to Vietnam’s fast-rising middle class, we are bullish on PNJ;s prospects from 2021 onwards.

For FY2020, we project revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND 15,470 (-9% YoY) and VND 896 bn (-25% YoY), respectively. For FY2021, we project revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND 18,547 (+20% YoY) and VND 1,115 bn (+24% YoY), respectively.

PNJ is currently trading at VND 59,000. We reiterate our Buy recommendation with a target price of VND 73,000 (total upside is 23%) , implying a 2020 PER of 19x and a 2021 PER of 15x