European Central Bank (ECB) strategy review
15-07-2021
15-07-2021:
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:
- On July 8, the ECB presented an action plan to include climate change considerations in its monetary policy.
- It also removed the 2% ceiling from its inflation target, allowing price rises to temporarily overshoot.
6 SCS – Q2 2021 Business Results Preview: Cargo throughput volume in line with expectations
14-07-2021
: SCS
: Non-aviation Services, Logistics
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Estimated Q2-2021 revenue/NPAT amounted to VND212Bn (+47% YoY)/VND150bn (+51% YoY) on the back of resilient international air freight volume throughput and the low base effect. Cumulative 1H-2021 revenue and NPAT have both completed 54% of our full-year forecast.
- We remain positive on SCS based on (1) its proven track record of resilient int’l volume amid recent lockdown in HCMC and int’l passenger flight cuts, (2) bright long-term prospects for EX-IM cargo volume, mostly driven by outbound cargo, owing to recovered demand from key trading economies given upcoming massive vaccine roll-out. We maintain our projection for 2021F/22F NPAT of VND529bn (+14% YoY)/VND590bn (+12% YoY).
- We raise our TP for SCS from VND141,400 per share to VND145,500 per share as we roll forward our valuation to the mid-2022 forecast, maintaining an ACCUMULATE recommendation.
BFC - Fierce competition to put pressure on gross margin in 2Q2021
13-07-2021
: BFC
: Chemicals, Fertilizer
: Vu Tran
Tags:
- Higher input material price but low selling price to put pressure on gross margin in 2Q2021. Revenue and NPATMI are estimated at VND 1,858 bn (+9.4%YoY) and VND 31bn (-41% YoY), respectively.
- Working capital improvement to cut financial expenses. Selling expenses are expected to be stable in 2021.
- In 2021, revenue and NPATMI are projected at VND 6,809 bn (+25.7%YoY) and VND 168bn (+26.3% YoY), respectively. At this price, P/E forward is around 9.5x – high compared to its 3-year average. So we recommend REDUCE with a target price of VND 23,300.
GVR – Converting rubber land to industrial parks to create growth
12-07-2021
: GVR
: Chemicals, Real Estate
: Others
Tags:
- Rubber, wood processing, rubber products and industrial parks are the main businesses of Vietnam Rubber Group.
- The results of the rubber segment have not been positive for the last couple of years, while the demand for renting industrial land has been constantly increasing. Therefore, GVR plans to convert rubber land to industrial parks. The Group owns a huge land bank located in the provinces and cities that are the production centers of Thus, it is expected that the leasing price and rental rate will be higher than other industrial parks, helping to improve results.
Update on HDG 6M 2021 – Energy sector stayed strong
09-07-2021
:
: Real Estate
: Tran Hoang The Kiet
Tags:
- 6M 2021 preliminary performance: Per management, HDG estimated its 6M 2021 revenue and NPAT of VND 1,765 Bn (-39% YoY) and VND 549 Bn (-22% YoY), completing 36% of revenue and 44% of net profit target. The lower performance was mainly caused by the real estate sector (-56% YoY) as HDG delivered fewer units of Hado Centrosa in 6M 2021 versus the same period last year.
- Real estate: This segment recorded revenue of VND 932 Bn (-56% YoY) from delivering 210 units at Hado Centrosa. For 2H 2021, management expects to record revenue of VND 200 Bn from 31 remaining units and VND 1,500 – VND 1,900 Bn revenue from Hado Charm Villas. HDG also expects to launch the sale of 221 units in Charm Villas and 35 units of CC1 in 2H 2021.
- Energy: The energy segment experienced a solid performance with revenue of VND 557 Bn (+63% YoY) thanks to the stable operation of existing hydro power plants given the favorable weather condition in 6M 2021. Power plants including Dak Mi 2, Song Tranh 4 and 7A Thuan Nam are expected to come online in Q3/2021 and generate revenue of VND 220 Bn.
Facts about rising global food prices
08-07-2021
:
:
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:
- The increase in food prices predates the pandemic and started in 2018.
- Food supply chain disruptions led by a shift from food services coupled by a rising US dollar pushed up prices in many countries[1].
- Ocean freight rates and land transportation costs have increased by 2-3 times in the last 12 months.
KSB – Waiting for strong growth from construction stone and industrial park segments
07-07-2021
: KSB
: Materials
: Tu Pham
Tags:
- Estimated 1H2021 revenue and PBT respectively came at VND 580 billion (-16% YoY) and VND 160 billion (-20% YoY), completing 48% of the revenue target and 46% PBT target.
- KSB has applied for a new license for the Tam Lap quarry phase 1 and expects to be approved in 3Q2021. This quarry can provide 1.2-1.4 million m3 of stone in 2022.
- KSB has compensated roughly 20% of Dat Cuoc Industrial Park – Phase II land area and expects to lease Phase II land from 2022.
Investment-linked Plan – Market conditions support growth
06-07-2021
:
: Insurance
: Tam Pham
Tags:
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GMD 2021 AGM Note: Upbeat results from key terminals
05-07-2021
:
: Logistics
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The AGM approved 2021 business guidance with PBT is targeted to grow at least by 23% YoY and raised cash dividend per share by 20% to VND1,200.
- New scheme for ESPP over 2021-25 vs the previous one over 2014-18.
- We are pending a comprehensive review on GMD as preliminary Q2-2021 business results are better-than-expected. Thus, the current target price of VND 43,600 is under review.
REE – Consolidate VSH in 2Q2021
02-07-2021
: REE
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- Revenue is going to grow thanks to VSH contribution from 2Q2021 because REE just raised its ownership from 49.52% to 50.45% in May. This consolidation is going to boost REE’s revenue yet NPAT contribution nearly unchanged.
- NPAT contribution from VSH is estimated at roughly VND 100 billion (or USD 4 million) during 2021.
- This consolidation might impact REE’s financial leverage given the high leverage of VSH.
POR16 to increase the rivalry in the US market
01-07-2021
:
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
Tags:
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TCB – Expecting strong organic growth
30-06-2021
: TCB
:
: Thanh Nguyen Ngoc
Tags:
- We expect TCB to sustain its earnings trend as credit growth reaches the ceiling and NIM continues to outperform on a year-on-year basis. 2Q2021 PBT is projected at VND 5,671 bn (USD 247 mn, +57% YoY), attributed mainly to the total operating income (+51% YoY).
- We raise the forecast for 2021 PBT to VND 20,437 bn (USD 889 mn, +29% YoY), up 9% from our prior projection, mainly due to controlled credit costs and strong performance in settlement.
- The long-term valuation component is revised up 36% as we roll the price target end date to mid-2022 and raise the terminal multiple due to better sustainable ROE. Combined with the recent rally of banking stocks driving up peers’ valuation, we adjust our target price to VND 67,000/share, 32% higher than our last target. This translates to an upside of 27% from the closing price of June 30, equivalent to a BUY recommendation.
