Rice price may drop to compete with India

• Rice exports decreased in 1H2021 due to a decrease in volume as the main import partner, the Philippines, reduced its imports. The average export price increased due to an increase in the proportion of high-quality rice and limited supply.
• Competition with India will increase in 2H2021, so the export price will likely drop to ensure a high level of export volume.

NT2 – Low business results in 2Q2021

• Volume in 2Q2021 reached 955 mn kWh, -23% YoY, nearly equal to that in 1Q2021. Contract volume (Qc) was 795 mn kWh, accounting for 83% of total volume, -28% YoY.
• Revenue in 2Q2021 was VND 1,616 billion (or USD 70 million) -2% QoQ and -14% YoY; NPAT was VND 25 billion (or USD 1.1 million), -79% QoQ and -90% YoY because of (1) A decrease in fixed price in the sale price, (2) Gas price surging and (3) Retrospective in 1Q2021. Accordingly, the 1H2021 NPAT reached VND 139 billion (or USD 6 million), -67% YoY, completing 30% the 2021 target.
• Better outlook is expected in 3Q2021, from a low base in 3Q2020. Longer term, NT2 will become a cash cow. It pays dividends for shareholders owing to no investing activity and debt payment obligation.
• We revise down the target price to VND 22,900 due to a decrease in fixed price in sale price and a gas price upward trend in the medium term. With the remaining VND 1,000 dividend for the year 2020, it offers an upside of 29% compared to the closing price on 30^th Hence, we recommend to BUY this stock.

ACV 2021 AGM Note – Management’s strong belief in a brighter 2H 2021 to fuel ambitious plan for passenger throughput volume

• The AGM approved the 2021 plan with a total revenue plus financial income of VND10,564bn (-8% YoY) and PBT of VND2,359bn (-29% YoY). 6M-2021 preliminary financial results completed 49% of the former while fulfilling 52% of the latter.
• Management believes that the global vaccination campaign will rapidly bring the aviation industry toward pre-covid levels, fueling the ambitious passenger throughput volume guidance.
• It also expects that the aerodrome assets ownership issue, which is the root cause of the equitization settlement delay since 2016, will be resolved in Q3-2021.
• The current TP of VND 80,800 is under review since the pandemic in Vietnam has developed much worse than expected.

NKG – Robust demand overseas will support the bottom line in 2H

• NKG’s GPM in Europe and North America can reach 19% due to large price differences.
• The company received sufficient orders for production until November, allowing factories to run at full capacity despite weak domestic demand.
• We forecast that the company’s revenue and NPAT will reach VND 8,140 billion and VND 700 billion in 3Q, increasing by roughly 140% YoY and 620% YoY respectively.
• We recommend to BUY NKG with a target price of VND 41,000. Coupled with a cash dividend of VND 500/share, the total expected return is 30%.

Japanese Equities: down we go

The Topix Index, at 1906 (July 18), has been unable to break the 2000 level, the March 2021 top,  which is indicative of weak momentum (Figure 1). In fact it looks like it is rolling over and 1780-90 is in sight. We doubt that asset allocators are adding to their Japan positions at this time.

Trade outlook is expected to moderate in 2H2021

• Trade deficit narrowed in Jun 2021
• Trade outlook is expected to moderate in 2H2021
• The base effect is likely to fade in 2H2021
• Import growth is expected to decline due to weak domestic demand

Steel industry update – Positive signs from export activities

• Steel consumption at a higher pace than the construction industry in 1H mainly due to export activities.
• In the coated steel segment, exports could remain strong in 2H2021 as several producers, such as HSG, NKG, received sufficient orders for production until November.
• Domestic demand was hit by the pandemic as consumption decreased in June in the construction and steel pipe segments. Due to measures to control COIVD-19, construction steel demand can be weak in July and August.

NLG: Pre-sale performance picked up

• Revaluation gains from Dong Nai Waterfont (Izumi) has primarily driven 6M 2021 results amid the scarcity of product handover.
• Pre-sale performance was strong with a total value of VND 4,491 Bn (+341% YoY): 1,070 units sold (+209% YoY), which was mainly attributed by the successful sale of the Mizuki project – 646 sold units with value of VND 2,003 Bn in Q2 2021.
• We believe 2021F – 2022F will be a strong profit period. Catalysts include (1) Strong pre-sale performance and handover of key projects including Akari City, Izumi, Southgate and Can Tho, (2) NLG’s large land banks in tier-two cities having the potential for infrastructure development. However, we are still concerned about the impact of Covid-19 on sale performance in the next few months Therefore, we suggest to ACCUMULATE the stock with target price of VND 45,300, implying a 13% upside versus the closing price of July 22.

VNM – Covid-19’s resurgence to hinder growth prospects

• We are cautious about VNM’s results. The company will witness low single-digit decrease of both revenue and NPAT in FY2021, mainly due to (1) the weakening demand of dairy products amid Covid-19’s spread in Vietnam and (2) negative impact of material price surge on profit margin.
• FY2021 estimated revenue and NPAT to be VND 58,653 Bn (or USD 2.5 Bn, -1.6% YoY) and VND 10,668 Bn (or USD 462 Mn, -3.7% YoY) respectively, completing 94% of revenue and 95% NPAT target. FY2021 EPS will be VND 4,594, and FY2021 forward PE will be 19x.
• We are prudent about the upside prospect in FY2021 as the company will face a difficult year under the impact of Covid-19 while new investment projects still need many years to create significant synergies on results and stock valuation. Therefore, we recommend to ACCUMULATE with a TP of VND 94,000 and total stock return of 15%.

HND – Better performance thanks to high volume in the dry season

• Volume in 2Q2021 reached 1,9 billion kWh, nearly equal to that in 2Q2020, completing 95% of the company’s plan thanks to the dry season and several heat waves in the North.
• Revenue in 2Q2021 was VND 2,624 billion (or USD 113 million) +32% QoQ and -16% YoY and NPAT was VND 188 billion (or USD 8 million), -66% YoY because of a decline in the selling price. Accordingly, 1H2021 NPAT reached VND 177 billion (or USD 7,7 million), -76% YoY, completing 89% of the 2021 PBT’s target.
•   The company will have machine maintenance for 62 days in 3Q2021. Profit is going to be impacted. Afterward, the outlook is expected to be better with high Qc in 4Q2021 and efficient operation after the maintenance. We maintain our target price for HND at VND 17,900, an upside of 7% compared to the closing price on July20^th, thus we recommend to accumulate this stock.  

Growth trajectory faces risks due to the latest outbreak

• Strict movement restrictions have been imposed to break transmission.
• The economic damage from the latest outbreak.
• Growth trajectory faces risks.