02-04-2026VNINDEX1694.82-8.11-0.48% HNXIndex250.36-1.10-0.44% UPCOM127.27-0.35-0.27% VN301852.99-8.85-0.48% VN1001781.33-10.83-0.60% HNX30540.48-3.83-0.70% VNXALL2779.93-16.91-0.60% VNX503095.5-19.61-0.63% VNMID2177.37-24.75-1.12% VNSML1418.77-11.67-0.82% Banking – Outlook for mid-sized banks based on strategic pillars
02-04-2026
: OCB, VIB, MSB, SSB, TPB, LPB, NAB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- The Vietnamese banking sector is entering an increasingly competitive phase, with a clear divergence between large banks and mid-sized banks. Larger institutions are leveraging their advantages in scale, cost of funds, and risk management to expand market share and profitability, compelling mid-sized banks to pursue differentiated strategies rather than competing head-on.
- Mid-sized banks are shaping their growth strategies around four key pillars: (1) Leveraging shareholder ecosystems to tap into existing customer bases and low-cost funding, (2) Advancing targeted digitalization with a focus on enhancing customer experience, (3) Developing green lending to capture emerging trends and access concessional international funding, and (4) Specializing in specific customer segments or verticals to build competitive advantages in niche markets.
- The implementation of these strategic pillars enables banks to improve operational efficiency by optimizing funding costs, increasing CASA, and expanding non-interest income, while also enhancing customer acquisition and market share in target segments. However, these strategies also entail certain risks, including concentration risk, limited long-term growth potential due to a focus on niche markets, and greater sensitivity to economic and consumption cycles.
Steel market 2M2026 – Consumption volume shows divergence, selling prices have recorded a recovery
01-04-2026
: HPG, HSG, GDA, NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- Differentiated consumption volume: Construction steel and HRC recorded strong growth (cumulative increase over the first two months of 39% and 214% YoY, respectively), supported by domestic demand and additional capacity from Dung Quat 2 (HPG’s HRC alone rose by 82% YoY). In contrast, the galvanized steel segment declined (-22% YoY, mainly due to a sharp 45% drop in exports), while steel pipes remain flat.
- Selling prices have recovered: Domestic steel prices rebounded, led by construction steel (+10% YTD) and rolled steel (slightly increasing in the second half of March). The upward trend in Q1 2026 was mainly driven by cost-push factors, including higher coke prices (+3% YTD), iron ore (+4% YTD), and elevated freight rates due to oil prices.
- Expect clearer recovery from Q2: The steel industry is expected to recover more noticeably from Q2, supported by two main drivers: (1) potential tariffs following the anti-circumvention investigation into trade remedies on wide-gauge steel imported from China, and (2) the peak construction season, which may allow for higher selling prices to offset costs and improve profit margins.
DPM – Strong Q4/2025 recovery and promising profit breakout in Q1/2026
31-03-2026
: DPM
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Q4/2025 business results showed a strong recovery, with net revenue reaching VND 3,414 billion (+8% YoY) and net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (NPAT-MI) recording VND 230 billion, a significant turnaround from a loss of VND 20 billion in the same period last year. The revenue growth was primarily driven by strong performance in the wholesale and NPK segments, which increased by 70% and 54% YoY, respectively. This more than offset the modest 7% YoY decline in the Urea segment, which was affected by a 21% YoY drop in fertilizer consumption volume.
- The standout highlight in Q4/2025 was the sharp improvement in gross margin, which surged to 19.5% (from 12.3% in the same period last year), thanks to an increase of 11% YoY in Urea selling prices while input gas costs declined slightly by 1% YoY. However, operating expense pressure intensified, with the SG&A-to-revenue ratio rising to 18.2%, mainly due to a doubling of other administrative expenses compared to the prior year. On a positive note, financial activities contributed strongly, with financial income reaching VND 239 billion (+85% YoY), driven by higher interest income from abundant short-term cash holdings, despite a 96% surge in interest expenses.
- For the full year 2025, the company exceeded its plan with net revenue of VND 16,820 billion (+23% YoY) and net profit of VND 1,074 billion, doubling compared to 2024. This strong performance was mainly attributable to the widened spread between Urea selling prices (+14% YoY) and input gas costs (-1% YoY).
- Entering Q1/2026, DPM is well-positioned for a significant profit breakout, supported by a substantial inventory position (113 days) booked at very low cost (equivalent to Brent crude at USD 60/barrel). In the context of rising global Urea prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the company is set to benefit from a double advantage through an expanded selling price-to-cost spread, aiming to approach the peak profit levels seen in the 2022 cycle.
Oil prices amid Middle East tensions: From price shock to sector impact
30-03-2026
: PVS, PVD, PVT, PLX, GAS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- Oil prices have been highly volatile due to rising tensions in the Middle East, especially related to Iran. Prices increased sharply in the short term as markets worried about supply disruptions. However, fundamentals suggest the medium-term outlook remains relatively balanced.
- Organizations such as S&P Global, IEA, and EIA generally agree that the current price spike is short-term. The medium-term trend will depend on how supply and demand rebalance.
- Higher oil prices support upstream and midstream segments. Downstream performance is more affected by inventory levels and delays in passing through costs.
Pharmacy retail development trend: Vertical integration across the value chain
27-03-2026
: FRT
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: FRT
- Retail models play a critical role in ensuring drug availability and improving accessibility for consumers at affordable prices. This model can scale rapidly for players with strong capital, technology, and distribution system; however, it typically carries the lowest profit margins across the value chain.
- The key success factors for retail chains is offering a broad product assortment (strong supplier relationships), delivering products as quickly as possible (extensive store network), and maintaining the lowest possible prices (scale advantages). In addition, the technology application to optimize costs and standardize service quality across the network is increasingly critical, given the model’s low margins, low entry barriers, and the importance of brand and service differentiation.
- In developed markets such as the U.S., modern pharmacy retailers maintain a leading market share not only through scale but also by moving up the value chain, transitioning from traditional dispensing models to integrated healthcare hubs, combining pharmacy chains, pharmacy benefit management (PBM), primary care clinics, and preventive services. In Vietnam, Long Chau, the current market leader with a ~21% share, is actively adopting these expansion strategies to capture market share, emerging as a key trendsetter that will shape the next phase of pharmacy.
SCS – Efficient operations remained the key driver of profit growth in Q4-FY25
26-03-2026
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- In Q4-FY25, SCS recorded revenue and NPAT of VND 327 bn (+11% YoY) and VND 188 bn (+11% YoY), respectively. International and domestic cargo volumes reached 62 thousand tons (+7% YoY) and 15 thousand tons (-3% YoY). ASP was estimated at VND 4.0 million/ton (+6% YoY), supported by a higher share of international cargo.
- For FY2025, net revenue and NPAT were VND 1,197 bn (+15% YoY) and VND 752 bn (+8% YoY), fulfilling 104% and 109% of our forecasts, respectively. Overall, SCS’s FY2025 performance was in line with our expectations at the beginning of the year.
DPR – Rubber segment is expected to be positive thanks to the supply shortage and the impact of oil prices in Q1/2026
25-03-2026
: DPR
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: DPR
- Business results in Q1/2026 are estimated to grow strongly: DPR is expected to record revenue of VND 228 billion (+13% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 85 billion (+30% YoY) with the expectation of contributing from the high-profit margin tree liquidation segment.
- The outlook for selling prices remains at a high base: production in the low season, rubber selling price is expected to be anchored at 52 million VND/ton (+3% QoQ) thanks to the resonance of the increase in world oil prices and the prolonged global supply deficit.
- Medium-term growth drivers from industrial park real estate: The Bac Dong Phu expansion project is accelerating the approval of the 1/2000 planning, expecting to start contributing rental revenue from the beginning of 2027 and become a new profit pillar for DPR.
QNS – Sugarcane remains bitter
24-03-2026
: QNS
: Sugar, Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: QNS
- QNS reported subdued Q4-2025 performance, with net revenue reaching VND 2,884 bn (+3.5% QoQ, +22.7% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 581 bn (+52.6% QoQ, -6.6% YoY). This came in 5.1% below our expectation, primarily as the company continued to prioritize sugar inventory clearance by accepting lower selling prices and offering elevated discounts at the close of the 2024-25 crop year.
- On March 23rd, 2026, QNS released preliminary results for the first 2 months of 2026, posting net revenue of VND 1,700 bn (+17.0% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 254 bn (-5.0% YoY). This suggests that into the new year, QNS remains under pressure to sacrifice margins in order to address the lingering sugar backlog from the prior crop, amid intensified competition driven by industry oversupply, smuggled cane sugar, and substitution from corn-based liquid sweeteners.
- QNS currently trades at a trailing P/E of 9.35x and a forward 2026 P/E of 9.25x, over the 2021–2025 average P/E of ~6.6x—a period when Vietnam enforced anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Thai sugar imports. Overall, the current valuation appears reasonable given the subdued earnings growth outlook for 2026 (broadly flat YoY), signs that sugar prices are nearing a cyclical floor, and an attractive cash dividend yield in the current price range (~8.0% annualized). We therefore maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation on QNS with a target price of VND 47,000/share.
TCH - leveraging land bank advantages, mitigating cash flow risks
23-03-2026
: TCH
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: RE
- In Q3/FY25 (Oct 1 - Dec 31, 2025), TCH recorded modest revenue of VND 317 billion (-63% YoY, -8% QoQ) – as the company had handed over most products at older projects, while the handover schedule for the new project was delayed to Q4 of the fiscal year. For Q4, we expect the company's two key projects (HH New City II and HH Green River) to begin handover, acting as a premise for the company to record a surge in revenue during the period, with Q4 revenue and NPAT-MI expected to reach VND 3,700 billion (+331% YoY) and VND 1,300 billion (+593% YoY), respectively.
- In the short term, although the high-interest-rate environment has slowed down the company's sales, TCH will still minimize cash flow risks thanks to a safe capital structure: a very low leverage (debt) ratio, combined with the expected net cash flow from housing handovers. We forecast TCH's revenue in FY25-26 to reach VND 4.7 trillion (flat compared to 2024) and VND 8.5 trillion (+80% YoY), respectively; NPAT-MI for FY26 is projected at VND 2.66 trillion (+86% YoY). TCH is currently trading at a 2026 P/B of 0.9x, an attractive valuation given the company's position and growth potential.
Vietnam Banking Sector 2026 Outlook: Tailwinds from Fiscal Expansion, Headwinds from Tighter Credit and Rising Rates
20-03-2026
: TCB, VCB, CTG, BID, VPB, MBB, ACB, HDB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Vietnam's economy has set an ambitious GDP growth target of 10% for 2026, with fiscal policy expected to serve as the primary growth driver as monetary policy easing headroom has narrowed considerably following nearly three years of accommodative measures to support economic recovery. Against this backdrop, the 2026 public investment budget - projected to exceed VND 1 quadrillion - is expected to serve as a key liquidity anchor for the banking system.
- The role of capital markets is also set to become increasingly prominent as credit growth faces tighter regulatory controls in 2026. This dynamic opens up meaningful fee income growth opportunities for banks with strong investment banking capabilities, particularly in debt capital markets advisory, corporate bond underwriting, and capital arrangement services.
- Liquidity pressures have driven a significant upward repricing of interest rates since late 2025, which persists through the present. On one hand, this creates favorable conditions for net interest margin (NIM) expansion across the banking sector in 2026 as credit supply remains constrained. On the other hand, it poses material risks to asset quality, as elevated borrowing costs could weigh on debt serviceability. Furthermore, the meaningfully higher interest rate environment is expected to dampen overall credit demand, while the structural headwind from tighter controls on real estate-related lending - historically a key driver of system-wide credit growth - is likely to result in a moderation of credit growth in 2026.
Impact of the Middle East conflict on Vietnam’s gas-fired power industry
19-03-2026
: POW, NT2, PGV
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The US/Israel-Iran conflict caused Brent oil prices to exceed USD 102/barrel (+41% MoM) and MFO prices in Singapore and Asian liquefied natural gas prices increased by 102% MoM and 87% MoM, respectively, directly putting pressure on the business performance of gas power companies such as POW, NT2 and PGV
- Although the domestic gas supply in 2026 is expected to be stable, the cost of purchasing gas at NT2 and PGV is expected to increase with oil price fluctuations, creating great financial risks when production prices exceed the market electricity selling price (FMP).
- The escalating LNG price increase threatens the ability of the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 (POW) plant cluster to recover capital and risks slowing down the national power generation development roadmap for the period 2025–2030 due to the shortage of price protection tools.
PVT – Q4/2025 results: Gross margin recovery driven by improving freight rates
18-03-2026
: PVT
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVT
- In Q4/2025, PVT reported revenue of VND 4,480bn (+34% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 266bn (+27% YoY). The results were better than our expectations, mainly thanks to improving freight rates and better gross margins.
- For full-year 2025, revenue reached over VND 16,000bn (+36% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND 1,038bn, much higher than the company’s plan. This shows that PVT still operated well despite weaker market conditions.
- For 2026, we expect better performance supported by stable domestic demand and recovering international freight rates, especially due to Middle East tensions.
02-04-2026
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